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EU Referendum

The French Patient

By Romain Leick in Paris

In the end, the French dared to do exactly what everyone wanted to prohibit them from doing. At home and throughout Europe they were scolded as crazy, irresponsible and self-destructive. But it happened. In voting against the EU constitution, the French have attempted a double national uprising -- one against Europe and the other against the country's ruling elites.

It was an outcry of anger, of pain, of fear and desperation that drove the citizens of France to the polls in masses. Europe, which usually only spreads boredom and indifference, for the first time unleashed passion. Sunday's vote may have been a democratic success, but it came at the price of a populist wave which has washed over France like a tsunami. It has taken with it every contentious issue that has appeared until now: the further development of Europe, EU expansion, the reform of the social system and the struggle to adjust to the effects of globalization.

With the clear success of the No camp, May 29 has now become an historic date -- it's the day on which the fate of a nation and its political structures changed. Seldom has there been a referendum with so many losers and so few winners. Among the chief losers is President Jacques Chirac.

In Paris and Berlin alike, the atmosphere is filled with the feeling that the aging French president, who was re-elected only three years ago with a record result of 82 percent, is at his fin de règne (end of rule). He played the role of chief in the referendum's Yes camp and even used his authority to try to sway public opinion towards the constitution in four different direct television appeals to the French -- the latest as recently as Thursday. But he did so in vain -- there's no repealing this disgrace, and a humiliated Chirac has hit rock bottom.

You could see the scope of the defeat in Chirac's face as he appeared before his people on Sunday evening to announce the results like a sheepish schoolboy caught in the act of doing something stupid. Helplessly, he admitted, "It's your sovereign decision, and I take note."

Paradoxically, Chirac's downfall began with his triumph over Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin and right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen in spring 2002. But he has since gambled away any of the trust people put in him back then. The French have been disappointed by Chirac's half-hearted and unsuccessful reform policies. And now they've exacted their revenge. In the two years that remain in his term, the president will be but a shadow of his former self -- without a clear domestic goal and sans prestige on the international stage.

Raffarin's decline, Sarkozy's rise

In a move that comes a day a late and a euro short, Chirac is sacrificing his hapless head of government, Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin. But Chirac should have given him the sack a year ago after a series of embarrassing defeats in regional and European elections.

Chirac's greatest rival in the conservative establishment, the former Finance and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, now head of Chirac's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), is already circling the wagons around the beleaguered government. In Paris, he attacked the "fear and the inflexibility" of those in power and demanded a radical shift in France's economic and social policies. At the same time, Sarkozy did little to conceal the fact that he is ready to stand by for the succession -- as prime minister now and as a presidential candidate in the 2007 elections.

The political earthquake in Paris will not shake the foundations of the German-French friendship, but the Franco-German motor in the EU will certainly sputter, if not stall. French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier already believes the duo has been weakened beyond repair. If they continued to cling to their claim of holding a leading role in the European Union, Chirac and Schroeder would inevitably become the laughing stock of their colleagues. With the failure of the Yes camp, a vision has been shattered in which the EU could be autonomous, in solidarity with its members and an equal counterweight to the United States.

No Plan B

Europe cannot do without France, but neither can France do without Europe. Paris and Brussels must now discuss ways to reconcile their diverging interests. At first, the No will lead to a standstill. Other nations, first the Netherlands and Luxembourg, then perhaps the Danes, Poles, Czechs and the British, could feel inclined to follow France's example. Of course, there is no contingency plan for the EU at this point -- and renegotiating the constitution seems impossible. And if more than four states vote No in a ratification process that is now carrying on without interruption, Europe's constitution, which was painstaking to create, will be dead, as the Spanish president of the European Parliament, Josef Borrell, has already conceded.

France, which has indisputably held the role of the chief power of the coalescing continent since the foundation of the European Community almost half a century ago, is ill. It suffers from chronic unemployment, an ailing economy and feverish fear of reforms to the social system. And the very idea of unbridled capitalism leaves a bad taste in its mouth. The problem is, this patient now threatens to infect the rest of Europe. It seems the only export France has to offer the EU right now is its own failures.