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European Union in Crisis

Is There Life After a Dutch No?

By Erich Wiedemann

France has already rejected the EU constitution and on Wednesday, Holland will likely follow suit. The country is afraid of sinking into obscurity in an enlarged Europe and is tired of paying more than its share. The government, meanwhile, has egregiously mismanaged its campaign for public approval of the historic document.

A specter is loose in Europe -- and on Wednesday it will be ghosting through Holland. If the surveys don't deceive, the Dutch No to the European draft constitution will be even more strident than its rejection in France. Indeed, the Dutch seem to have reached an agreement: the economic union was advantageous. But why do we need a political union? Nee, dank u zeer, or no thanks, they are saying to Europe.

Just prior to zero hour, the center-right government in The Hague launched one final, last-ditch propaganda campaign to avoid the oncoming No. Not least because of the sheer absurdity of the TV spots, it failed miserably. The advertisements -- which were intended to praise the blessings of European union -- showed photos of concentration camp prisoners and mass graves from the killing fields of Srebrenica. Below, it read, "never again." Ridiculous. That is not the way to combat Euro-skepticism.

Even worse were the attempts by some members of the government to instrumentalize the dubious attitude toward Europe among their constituents. Foreign Minister Bernard Bot even went so far as to say that Holland had to finally fight against its status as the highest net-payer into EU coffers. Holland, he went on, will finally show those politicians in Brussels -- and will maybe even block the EU budget.

A downward slide into populism

Where did all of this holier-than-thou fury come from? For years, The Hague had always rejected criticism of Holland's paymaster role as reactionary and anti-Europe. Now, suddenly, the government has defected over to the side of the Euro-critics. The liberal elite is also worried about "democratic hygiene." The influence of Holland's own parliamentarians would shrink if the constitution were to pass, they believe. The bureaucrats in Brussels would gain even more influence. Plus, some argue, the new Europe would develop into a military power -- something the founding fathers never wanted.

These are all, it is true, reasons for pause. But they aren't the reasons that are fuelling the No camp. Instead, the Euro-skepticism of the Dutch is fed mostly by fear that Holland may no longer have much of a role in a club that they helped start. They are afraid of being completely overshadowed by a European super-state.

The majority of the Dutch are hospitable and cosmopolitan. But Holland is not a multicultural paradise any longer. In a few years, immigrants are going to outnumber the Dutch in the country's four largest cities and many now believe enough is enough. They are afraid of being swamped by foreigners and they are not impressed by the internationalization of their country, no matter how it is labeled.

Holland, in short, has changed course. Much of that, obviously, has been brought on by the murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh last November -- and a great deal of faith in the country's ability to integrate foreigners evaporated in subsequent weeks as Christians and Muslims lit each other's churches and schools on fire. The Dutch don't believe in slogans of fraternization any longer -- not surprisingly, they are also opposed to letting Turkey join the club.

Playing on Dutch fears

Contrary to some popular perception, this change of sentiment has little to do with xenophobia. Holland's economy is in a crisis, unemployment is high and the country's wealth is evaporating. Hospitality, in the final analysis, is also an issue of money.

But the "nee" is not just the product of nagging fear as supporters of the constitution suggest. The majority of people are just not convinced that Europe is -- as politicians never tire of claiming -- boundlessly good. And those fears that are present are gleefully played upon by the constitution's naysayers. Member of Parliament Geert Wilders, who left the neo-liberal party VVD last autumn, is crisscrossing the country with his "TourNee" bus and preaching for the reintroduction of the guilder -- the Dutch currency replaced in 2002 by the euro. He would like best for the Netherlands to leave the EU, and the applause he receives on his stops is a clear sign that Europe is reaching the limits of its popularity.

Strange, then, that the politicians have failed to notice the change in the Dutch mindset. All the major parties have support the referendum because they were convinced that the Yes would be a no-brainer. Had they foreseen the resistance, the referendum -- the first in 200 years and not provided for in the Dutch constitution -- would never have taken place.

But in contrast to France, resistance to the constitution in Holland ripples through wings of all major parties. Thus, it is doubtful that anyone would benefit politically from a rejection. Nor is it likely any changes will be made to the Dutch cabinet as a result of a no vote. For this reason, the No camp's victory in France hardly had any effect in Holland. On hearing the news of the referendum's defeat in France, Harry van Bommel, spokesman for the small Socialist Party contingent in the lower house of parliament in The Hague, merely respondent that he was delight and had poured himself a fine glass of red wine.

So is there life after Nee?

This much is certain: The civil war predicted by Justice Minister Piet Hein Donner should the referendum fail will not take place. Furthermore, the result -- whatever it may be -- is not binding for the government. Should the referendum end with a close call, or with less than 30 percent participation, it would likely be ignored -- a move that would win the approval of the opposition. It would, however, surely raise a storm of protest. Then again, the Dutch are not the kind of people who are likely to take to the barricades.