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The EU Back at Square One

Rebellion Against Brussels

So far, every attempt to save the European constitution following its spectacular rejection in France and Holland has failed. More storms are rapidly approaching. The European Union is now -- finally -- being forced to decide what it wants to be.

The three most important actors on the European Union stage appeared helpless -- as if they were only playing a supporting role in the disaster film. Josep Borrell, the Spanish president of the European Parliament tried to explain the double rejection of the European constitution by France and the Netherlands by saying that "fear is greater than the dream of political unity." Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who is the rotating president of the EU until the end of June, expressed similar sentiments. "We have to determine why people no longer dream about Europe." And in his helplessness, European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso served up the most absurd understatement of the week: "I think we have a problem, a serious problem."

Indeed, with two failed referenda on the constitution, the people have spoken. But in Brussels the heads of the three biggest EU institutions have been left apprehensive and trembling. Brussels, it seems, has been shaken to its core.

Now, the constitution, designed as a showpiece for European unity and future guarantee for an expanded Europe, is clinically dead. Europeans appear to be losing faith in their ambitious goal of transforming from an economic zone to a political union and thereby creating a "Great Europe," a future world power. It's the "victory of European nihilism," French Philosopher Andre Glucksmann said last week, offering his diagnosis of the situation. His colleague, Jean Baudrillard said Europe is "no longer even an idea" -- these days, "it is no longer anything more than virtual reality."

At the EU summit in Brussels next week, there won't be much left for the 25 heads of state and government to do than to issue an official death certificate. But of course, they won't, and instead, the mourning will continue. A dam has been broken, but nobody wants to be the first to admit that the house is under water.

French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who until recently were the EU's self-proclaimed leadership duo, have announced they intend to drive on to the bitter end, despite the fact that the continuation of the ratification process they are demanding appears increasingly absurd. In a letter sent last week, Chirac demanded that his partners "take the time needed to analyze the consequences of the French vote for the Union." At the very latest, that period of reflection will begin in Brussels at next week's summit, where leaders are expected to begin the painful process of confronting existential questions about Europe's future.

The French rejection of the constitution was only the first blow. On May 29, the French actually dared to do what they had been told by much of Europe was crazy, irresponsible and self-destructive. They attempted a democratic uprising, a voter rebellion with putsch-like traits against the ruling elites, against the dictatorship of bureaucrats and against a definition of Europe which had been ordered from the top down.

It was an outcry of anger, of pain, of fear and desperation that drove the citizens of France to the polls in masses. Europe, which usually only spreads boredom and indifference -- had suddenly unleashed a consuming passion. And that passion now threatens to devour the goals which were once securely anchored in the European project: the further development of Europe as a great political power, accession of candidate countries including Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, reform of the social welfare system and the inevitable adjustment to the effects of globalization.

Thus, May 29 has become an historical date, a fateful day for the European Union, which saw an evening in which French naysayers celebrated their victory at Paris's Place de la Bastille, as if it were the continuation of the French Revolution. The rejection by the Dutch three days later only served to confirm that Europe is back at square one.

Losers, all around

Seldom has there been a referendum with so many losers and so few winners. Chief among those with an egg on their face is President Jacques Chirac. In Paris and Berlin alike, the atmosphere is filled with the feeling that the aging French president, who was re-elected only three years ago with a record result of 82 percent, is at his fin de règne, or end of rule. You could see the scope of the defeat in Chirac's face as he appeared before his people the evening of the poll, announcing the results like a sheepish schoolboy caught in the act of doing something stupid. Helplessly, he admitted, "It's your sovereign decision, and I take note." French voters, Chirac knew, used the EU constitution as a scapegoat for all that ails the morose country -- especially people's uncertainty about France's economic future and its role in the world.

Now, Chirac finds himself without answers to the serious questions his voters have posed him. He doesn't have the option of seeking improvements or a renegotiation of the constitution. Nor can he ask stubborn voters back to the polls to correct their apparent error, as the Irish did with the Treaty of Nice and the Danes did after first rejecting the Treaty of Maastricht. Chirac, who during the Iraq crisis two years ago was still acting like Europe's emperor, now finds himself without any clothes.

His foreign policy is paralyzed and the only trick he still had left up his sleeve last week was to hectically reorganize his government. The new prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, wants -- together with his rival and aide-de-camp, Nicolas Sarkozy -- to alleviate France's ills: unemployment which continues to rise, a beleaguered social system and hysterical resistance to free markets and globalization.

Holland: paralyzed by fear

As in France, the most important party leaders in the Netherlands also thought the constitution referendum would easily sail through the polls. But the government and Social Democratic opposition failed to see the degree to which opposition to the constitution had fomented among voters. Following the staggering no vote, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende fell into a state of depression. The extent of the rejection -- 61.7 percent voted nee on the constitution -- forced Balkenende to concede: "We understand the concerns about the loss of sovereignty, about the speed of changes in Europe, and we understand that voters feel betrayed."

Holland was in a state of emergency: A poster for the No campaign showed a map of Europe in which the Netherlands has been replaced by blue water. Fear of wage dumping and, especially, the possible membership of Turkey are the issues that bridged the French and Dutch no votes. Additionally, there was anger and frustration about the euro. Experts now admit that when exchange rates were determined for the 2002 introduction of the new currency, the Dutch guilder was undervalued by as much as 10 percent. Not surprisingly, many Dutch now feel they were fleeced by monetary union.

If Balkenende and Chirac push for the ratification process to continue in the remaining EU countries, it may be in the slightly cynical belief that they won't have to be the only ones seen as Europe's gravedigger. Indeed, among the new EU member states that haven't yet ratified the constitution, the outcome of the process is anything but certain in Poland and the Czech Republic.