• English Site
• > Under the Scope
• > Turkey

"Obi-Wan Blair, You're Our Only Hope"

Why Turkey's EU Bid Could Hinge on Britain

By Jürgen Gottschlich in Istanbul

The collapse of the European constitution has lent greater weight to the powerful opponents of Turkey's eventual membership in the European Union. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is frustrated by France and Germany, and increasingly Ankara believes that Tony Blair is their last hope for joining the club.

When Tony Blair spoke before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Thursday morning, he could count on the fact that there would be no shortage of viewers tuning in from Turkey to listen to each of his carefully crafted words. After all, Britain's prime minister has been one of the most vocal proponents of future European Union membership for Turkey. He continued with his supportive stance on Thursday, as he laid out Britain's goals for the EU presidency, a position it assumes for six months starting July 1. Near the top of the list of Blair's agenda, he said, is to "carry out the Union's obligations to those like Turkey and Croatia that wait in hope of a future as part of Europe."

The preliminary collapse of the EU constitution, has suddenly catapulted the British prime minister into the roll of Europe's most-powerful man. But for the Turkish government, he is far more. Even if nobody is admitting it publicly, Blair is essentially Ankara's last hope -- Obi-Wan Kenobi to Turkey's pleading Princess Lea. Even before the constitution disaster, Blair was one of the few leaders in Europe whom Turks could count on. Now, he appears to be the last chance the Turks have in a Europe divided by duelling visions and internecine rivalries.

Earlier this year, eurocrats in Brussels openly worried that Turkey had begun dragging its feet on reforms after Ankara had been given a date at the December 2004 EU summit for accession talks to begin. At that point, it was the British who stepped in to help its friend. Behind the scenes, London helped the Turkish government search for a solution to the Cyprus issue that would be acceptable to all. As a way of saying thanks for the gesture, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül announced that Turkey would wait to amend a 1996 customs agreement with the EU to expand it to the 10 new EU member states after Britain took the helm of the EU presidency.

Does Turkey have a future in the EU?

Now, suddenly, the question being asked in Brussels isn't whether or not the Turks sign a document that would give de facto recognition of the Greek-Cypriot government on an island which has been divided since the Turks invaded the northern third in 1974. Instead, it rests on whether any kind of EU expansion will ever even come to fruition.

At major Turkish newspapers, commentators quickly figured out that some European leaders are reinterpreting the failure of the constitution as a vote against expansion. Columnist Mehmet Ali Birand poignantly wrote: "If you take a closer look at this argument, then you have to assume that the decision has already been made for Bulgaria and Romania. Croatia is a relatively small country that is ill-equipped to take the blame, and for that reason everything will now be blamed on Turkey."

Last week, Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, passed a resolution criticizing Turkey for not acknowledging its role in the "Armenian massacre" a century ago. Parliament stopped short of calling it "genocide," but the response from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan demonstrated the great disappointment of the Turks in the German-French EU axis. In Beirut, an irate Erdogan called the decision "ugly" and "wrong." And right after returning to Ankara, he struck again, attacking his buddy, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, head on. "I admire politicians with backbones," he said. "When Mr. Schroeder was in Turkey a few weeks ago, he was still supporting our position." Not exactly the way you talk about a politician whose support you may need in the future.

Privileged partner or full-fledged member?

Then again, Schroeder may no longer matter to Erdogan. With the conservative Angela Merkel expected to succeed Schroeder as chancellor after snap autumn elections and Nikolas Sarkozy likely in line to become the next French president, Tony Blair is the last remaining hope Turkey has for membership. Both Merkel and Sarkozy are staunch opponents of giving Turkey a place at the table in Brussels.

So far, the official tenor in Turkey has been to remain distant from the looming fight over the future of Europe. "Turkey has done its homework on the road to the EU," Foreign Minister Gül recently reiterated. "We are continuing with our reforms." He pointed out that Turkey's new criminal law went into effect on June 1, as promised, adding that the Cyprus Protocol was ready and that it could be signed as early as July. If the Oct. 3 date for starting accession talks falls through, he said, it won't be through any fault of Ankara.

But what kind of accession are the Europeans supposed to negotiate in October? A growing number of supporters of a more deeply integrated Europe -- from the head of the Social Democratic faction in the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, to European Commissioner for Industry Guenther Verheugen to Angela Merkel -- are calling for a "privileged partnership" for Turkey rather than full EU membership. So far, at least, Blair has not made any similar comments. Instead, the British have always implied that they've been pushing for EU expansion in order to torpedo the vision of many on the continent for a United States of Europe.

But for now, at least, the Brits appear to have the next move. And they are likely to find broad support in Turkey. Mehmet Ali Birand, an untiring EU propagandist in the Turkish media, recently told his readers that Blair is on the right track. "The agricultural subsidies upon which the EU spends 40 percent of its budget, are an anachronism," he wrote. Besides, "Old Europe," with its vision of transferring ever more sovereignty to Brussels would have kept raising the bar for membership, making it more and more difficult for Turkey to join the EU. "Blair," Birand wrote, "is flexible in that sense. The conditions Turkey must fulfil will be less difficult."

Next week, when Britain takes the helm of the EU for six months, Birand's thesis will be put to the test.