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Terror in London

The British Capital Knew It Was a Target

By Yassin Musharbash in Berlin

Al-Qaida has long said that it was going to visit terror on London. But was the group behind the Thursday morning attacks? A document posted on a Web site frequently used by al-Qaida indicates that it was. And despite questions of authenticity, Osama bin Laden's group remains the only real suspect.

Today, the catastrophe that terror experts had been warning about for years - and for which the British government and the city of London had been preparing for just as long - came true. The capital of Britain was attacked by terrorists. Seven almost simultaneous explosions - six in the city's subway system and one in a double-decker bus - rocked London during rush hour and immediately recalled memories of the attacks in Madrid on March 11, 2004. The question on everyone's mind: Was al-Qaida, Osama bin Laden's terror organization that was the mastermind of both the Spain attack and the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in the United States, once again responsible?

At the moment, there is a lot indicating al-Qaida's involvement - and not much in the way of contradictory evidence. No other country in the world, with the exception of the United States, has received the number of warnings of violence from al-Qaida and its affiliate terror groups as Great Britain. The government of the country is hated to almost the same degree as that of the US. British troops, after all, provided America with valuable support in both Afghanistan and in Iraq.

Al-Qaida planned to attack US allies

As early as the autumn of 2003, a strategy paper was posted on an al-Qaida Internet site in which the terrorists considered in which order and with what methods the "Coalition of the Willing" operating in Iraq could be attacked. The conclusion reached by the author of this cynical "study": Those US allies whose populations are most in opposition to the war in Iraq should be attacked first. Only after all other countries are scared out of Iraq by terror attacks, the document concluded, would there be a realistic chance at swaying the arch-enemy USA. And just a few months ago, the al-Qaida leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who is active in Iraq, threatened the British with a wave of attacks.

The primary goal of the two papers was to encourage attacks against British and Spanish soldiers in Iraq. But al-Qaida fighters clearly took the message to heart -- and attacked the countries themselves. First in Madrid in spring of last year, and then on Thursday in London. It is this context into which the London attacks should likely be inserted. Even terror experts and security professionals are unable to imagine perpetrators other than Islamists. In contrast to Spain, where the Basque separatist group Eta was at first suspected, in London al-Qaida appears to be the only possibility.

The first claim of responsibility for the attacks in London seems to fit perfectly with the above scenario. The posting appeared just two hours after the explosions on a Web site on which al-Qaida has frequently posted such claims. A group calling itself "Secret Organization - al-Qaida in Europe" explained in the posting -- a copy of which was obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE -- that the attacks came in response to the British involvement in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

"We have kept our promise"

"Rejoice, community of Muslims," the letter states. "The heroic mujahedeens today conducted an attack in London." All of Great Britain is now shaken and shocked, "in the north, the south, west and east." "We've warned the British government and the British people time and time again," the document adds. "We've kept our promise and have carried out a blessed military operation." At the end, they threatened, "We continue to warn the governments of Denmark and Italy and all other crusader governments." All states with a presence in either Afghanistan or Iraq were likewise ordered to withdraw -- a threat that is also indirectly aimed at countries such as Germany which stayed out of the Iraq war but which are present in Afghanistan. The Saudi al-Qaida affiliate, for example, justified a 2004 murder of a German with the country's presence in Afghanistan.

The authenticity of the document could not immediately be confirmed. But in recent months, authentic bulletins and claims of responsibility from different terrorist groups, including the Iraqi al-Qaida affiliate, have been posted to the "al-Qala'a" Web site where today's posting was found.

There are, however, a couple of elements that make the posting suspicious. First of all, the Web site has, in the past, also hosted a number of inauthentic claims of responsibility. Secondly, the document includes references to the "community of Arabs," important because al-Qaida -- even if it tends to be a primarily Arab organization -- has always emphasized that the only thing that matters is whether one is a believing Muslim. As a rule, questions of ethnicity have never played much of a role. The second surprise is the timing of the posting. Normally, the rule holds true that the larger the attack, the later the claim of responsibility by al-Qaida. Two hours is incredibly quick. But such observations are merely the lessons told from the past -- and they do nothing to nothing to eradicate the suspicion that al-Qaida was behind the London attacks.

Is the claim authentic?

The description in the posting of al-Qaida as a "secret organization" -- a formulation that, at first glance, doesn't seem to fit with Osama bin Laden's terror organization at all -- is equally limited in its significance. The term is simply a way of speaking, and has become part of a vernacular that has no connection to reality. Finally, about an hour after the statement was released, the Internet space where it appeared shut down to all but those in possession of a password. It's tough to say exactly what that means -- probably, however it indicates that someone wanted to remove the letter from public view. In order to replace it with something else later?

It is also possible that SPIEGEL ONLINE's original reluctance to call the letter authentic was correct. One thing is certain however: al-Qaida has to be considered the number one suspect in the attacks. Thus, the only way the letter could be discredited is if al-Qaida issues a contrary statement or explanation. Such a scenario would be nothing new. At least twice a seemingly authentic statement was later called a fake and denied by Al Zarqawi's press spokesman. The very nature of the Internet makes it difficult to establish the authenticity of such claims. It is especially difficult when -- as in this case -- the claims of "credit" come in writing, rather than in a verbal statement.

Regardless of the number of people who died, the London attacks will carry as much weight and will have the same impact as the attacks in Madrid. It shows that despite all the precautions taken since Sept. 11, 2001 -- and Britain has taken these precautions quite seriously -- nowhere is completely safe. Terrorists continue to find ways of attacking major European cities. After the explosions in Madrid, the opinion of terrorism experts was unequivocal: Whoever could attack Madrid in such a way, could also hit London.

This fear has now been realized. The only consolation is that from New York to Madrid and now to London, the number of victims has decreased significantly.