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Ukraine Gas Emergency

'We'd Rather Freeze than Give in to Russia'

By Alexander Schwabe in Kiev

Russia's decision on Sunday to cut natural gas deliveries to Ukraine poses a threat to industry and livelihoods. But the government in Kiev has reacted calmly and the development could even make the country's president, Viktor Yushchenko, more popular yet.

A cold wind blows from the southeast at the Borispol Airport. Andrei is sitting with his legs stretched out on the driver's seat of his mini-bus, dressed in a thick leather jacket lined with fur. The 47-year-old is waiting to pick up passengers at the airport who can't afford the expensive cab ride into downtown Kiev. Though Andrei won't leave for another 30 minutes, he keeps his motor running just to keep the bus warm. Two portly women in thick coats rotate between the terminal, where they advertise rides into the city, and the warm bus. "It's already below freezing," the bus driver says. "And soon it's going to get worse."

In the Ukrainian capital, people are watching their thermometers with concern. Temperatures are still just below zero. Following Russia's decision to  cut off natural gas supplies to the former Soviet satellite state on Sunday, gas supplies to homes has been reduced by 30 percent, with the government relying on reserves to keep its people warm. Most have gotten by with their heaters set on low and lukewarm baths. Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko has imparted a calm message: With reductions in gas, efficiency and gas from Turkmenistan, the country can survive the winter without Russian gas.

But those calculations assume that the current temperature doesn't sink below -5 degrees Celsius. If that happens, millions of Ukranians will spend the country's Orthodox Christmas holiday on Jan. 6 freezing in their apartments. And soon after, the country's chemical industry, which gets 70 percent of its energy from natural gas, and its heavy industry, which relies on gas for 30 to 50 percent of its energy, will grind to a halt, possibly triggering a greater economic collapse. The country's unemployment rate, already a hefty 15 percent, would surely quickly rise.

Right now, these are horror scenarios that no one wants to think about. Most are intent on keeping their holidays from getting spoiled by the gas cuts. If you ask people on the streets, most say they can get by with less gas. "We're dressing a little bit warmer," said one cleaning lady who lives in Kiev. In the worst-case scenario, some say they will go to the countryside and stay with friends or relatives in homes that are still coal-heated. Another woman, a student, says she's taken the deep freeze in stride. "It was incredibly cold in my dorm yesterday," she said. "But today it's better."

A political power play

Even though most Ukrainians seem to have reacted to the gas stoppage with a mere shrug of the shoulders, opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich has sought to hold President Yushchenko and his prime minister, Yuriy Yekhanurov, responsible for the crisis. If he were still president, Yanukovich has implied, Ukraine's relationship with Russia would still be intact and it would still be getting cheap gas from Moscow.

Still, Russian President Vladimir Putin's blatant attempt to turn public sentiment against Yushchenko prior to upcoming March elections is, so far at least, getting little traction. Instead, the opposite has happened -- support for Yushchenko has increased among the majority of Ukrainians living in the western and central parts of the country that backed the country's Orange Revolution one year ago.

According to a poll conducted by the country's Channel 5 TV station, 93 percent of Ukrainians view Moscow's decision to cut off gas as a hostile measure. And words like those spoken by Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kuprianov -- "we are prepared to come to an agreement with the Ukrainian people and to do our part to ensure that they get through the winter comfortably" -- are being taken here as blatant cynicism. And since Sunday, the streets have been filled with talk of a boycott of Russian products. Indeed, many have been sending each other text messages on their mobile phones with this message: "Think about the gas! Don't buy any Russian products."

The current mood in Ukraine could likely be best described with the slogan: "We would rather freeze than give in." It was that same sentiment that carried the so-called Orange Revolution led by Yushchenko to victory amid serious allegations of election fraud by the supporters of then-prime minister Yanukovych. For weeks, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians stuck it out in the cold in a makeshift tent city along Kiev's main Khreschatyk boulevard. It became a sea of orange banners as people camped in freezing weather -- naturally without gas.

Confrontation between the West and Russia

The dispute with Russia is bolstering public support for Yushchenko, whose popularity has fallen considerably over the last year. By refusing to give into Gazprom's demand for Ukraine to pay up to $230 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas and by refusing to be labeled a "gas thief" by Moscow, Yushchenko has gained new respect among Ukrainians. That has given him enough self-confidence to even speak publicly about possible measures should the country be hit by an especially brutal cold snap this winter. That could force Kiev to tap western pipelines for nearly 15 percent of the gas they funnel across Ukraine -- roughly the amount the country is owed in lieu of transit fees.

If Putin continues his hard-line stance and refuses to sell gas at a price Ukraine deems acceptable, Yushchenko could even choose to call upon the so-called Budapest Memorandum, which was meant to guarantee Ukrainian security after it became independent and willingly gave up nuclear weapons. Signed in 1994 by Russia, the United States, Britain and France, the memorandum also calls on those countries from applying economic pressure on Ukraine. That could put western states in direct confrontation with Moscow's aims. The Russian Foreign Ministry, however, has said the gas dispute has nothing to do with security guarantees.

The shuttle bus to the Borispol Airport has slowly begun to fill. Twenty-eight-year-old Kyrill is also onboard. For him the cause of the Russian-Ukrainian row is clear: "Putin doesn't like that Yushchenko is getting closer to the EU and wants to join NATO." He believes Yushchenko should stand fast against Russia even if gas becomes scarce.

"There's plenty of gas -- it's just flowing past us to Europe," says Andrei the bus driver, explaining that the whole mess might mean that Ukraine gets something back from the EU. Moscow's cold war against Kiev seems to be creating sympathy for a supposedly warmer west.