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02/09/2007

 

Munich -- For Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comments at last year’s Conference on Security Policy in Munich must have felt like a slap on the face. The freshly elected German chancellor greeted delegates from the Middle East by saying that the mullahs had "willfully overstepped the red line" with the country's nuclear program.

She then compared the rhetoric of the regime in Tehran to that of the Nazis. Back then, many dismissed the National Socialists, saying it was just rhetoric and that people shouldn't get overly excited. "Now we see that there were times when we could have acted differently," she said. "For that reason Germany is obliged to intervene at an early stage to make clear (to Iran) what is OK and what isn't."

Her stance won her a great deal of respect among her international colleagues in Munich who had gathered beneath the massive crystal chandeliers of the regal conference rooms in Munich’s Bayerischer Hof. Some Americans even began chattering positively about the chancellor’s "leadership" abilities.

On Saturday, Merkel will return to the posh hotel to attend the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy. Some 250 security experts, politicians and defense lobbyists from 40 countries are expected -- including as many as three dozen cabinet-level ministers. Call it the Davos of global security policy.

Merkel as leader

And, once again, Merkel is being touted as the leading personality at the conference. In January, Germany took over the presidency of both the European Union as well as the G8. On paper at least, a German chancellor could hardly wield more power than Merkel does at present. She will be flanked at the conference by Russian President Vladimir Putin -- in what will be his debut appearance at the meeting -- and new US Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

More than anything else, Merkel is expected to provide “intellectual leadership” conference organizer Horst Teltschik told the Münchner Merkur newspaper. After serving as a security adviser to ex-Chancellor Helmut Kohl, Teltschik took up the helm of the conference, which is financed by the Federal Press and Information Office, in 1998. The head of the German Green Party, Reinhard Bütikofer is more cautious in his comments about the Chancellor: No one is “doing her any favors by convincing her she is a Superwoman and then, in the end, turning around and criticizing her for not achieving everything on her own.” Germany also has no place demanding a “central international role,” according to the left-wing politician.

The unresolved spat over Iran’s nuclear program remains high on the conference’s agenda. Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, appears to be coming to Munich for the event to speak about Iran's nuclear program -- though it was briefly reported that he had pulled out on Friday, only to reverse his decision later -- and has also expressed his desire to meet with Merkel. But Merkel's spokesman was reserved about the offer, telling reporters on Friday there were no plans for a meeting. Plans are, however, afoot for meetings with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and the European Union's chief diplomat, Javier Solana, which would mark the first talks between Western officials since the UN imposed sanctions on Tehran in December.

Also on the agenda is the situation in Afghanistan, concern about the dependability of Russian energy deliveries, the growth of NATO, Kosovo’s future and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A potpourri of crises or, as Teltschik euphemistically says: “Global crises, global responsibility."

And then there’s Russia

Russia could well become the surprise focus of the conference. Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and U.S. Senator and 2008 Republican presidential hopeful John McCain have fanned the flames of a debate about plans by the US to place components of its missile defense project in former Eastern Bloc countries. Both are expected to attend the conference. Ivanov warned in the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper of “unfriendly signals” that will force a Russian reaction. In the time since the spat occurred, the minister announced Russia would modernize its missile arsenal. At the same time, McCain spoke openly about the “imperialistic influence” Russia still seems to hold over its neighbors.

This is beginning to become a recurring role for McCain, who, during last year’s conference, said a Russia that exports its autocracy was a risk to world peace alongside the destabilization of Iraq and a nuclear Iran. “Under Mr. Putin, Russia today is neither a democracy nor one of the world's leading economies,” the senator told the Russians in attendance, who had frosty smirks affixed to their faces.

Still, these kinds of scenes are the bread and butter of the Munich security conference. Who could forget former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer using the conference to lambast then Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in the run-up to the Iraq War in 2003? "I am not convinced,” Fischer’s repeated again and again in his scratchy voice.

Teltschik: "This would never happen in a dictatorship "

And just when you think it won’t get fiery enough, along comes Horst Teltschik. As in previous years, Teltschik has crowed repeatedly that the caliber of attendees will be higher than ever before. And it’s beginning to look as if Teltschik’s attacks on conference protestors are calculated to garner the most media attention. It’s “the tragedy of every democracy that everyone is allowed to state their opinion and that politicians have to be protected in a democracy. This would never happen in a dictatorship,” he said in an interview with the Bayerischer Rundfunk regional broadcaster. Later he told the Süddeutsche Zeitung that he hadn’t expressed himself clearly enough and that he wasn’t targeting protestors with his statement.

Teltschik’s outbursts play right into the hands of the organizers of protests against the security conference. They’ve slated a major demonstration for Saturday at Munich’s central Marienplatz square and expect Teltschik’s outspokenness to draw even more protestors. Organizers are expecting 5,000. Talk about security -- the police say they’ll be there too -- 3,500 strong.