Europe's Energy Crisis Skyrocketing Oil Prices Threaten Prosperity
With oil prices breaking all records, the next shock for consumers is already at hand with electricity and natural gas prices set to skyrocket. While experts fear for the economy, the crisis is driving a wedge between the partners in Germany's coalition government.
In late May, when a barrel of oil reached $135, prices per liter for the German consumer rose above 1.50 ($8.78/gallon).
Minakow feels trapped. No matter what he gives up, gas prices still squeeze more and more from his wallet. My salary has stayed the same for years, he says, but gas just keeps getting more and more expensive.
Germans are experiencing a particularly unpleasant kind of energy crisis. They conserve electricity and gas where they can, but costs for heating the house, driving, cooking and taking a morning shower are making a bigger and bigger dent in the household budget. Since the price of a barrel of oil first broke the $135 mark last week, filling the gas tank of a Volkswagen Golf now costs more than 80 ($125).
A commuter who makes the daily, 65-kilometer (40-mile) commute between the northern cities of Lübeck and Hamburg will fork out an additional 500 ($778) this year just for gas. Heating and electricity bills have also recently climbed to that point that they now account for 40 percent of total housing costs. If the trend continues, utility costs will become a second rent, complains Franz-Georg Rips, president of the German Tenants Association.
For economists and consumers alike, all previous calculations are now out the window. Whereas earlier a majority of experts predicted robust growth for 2008, they now see an economy in serious danger.
A Political Conundrum
In Berlin, too, views are changing. The same politicians who have always made fighting global warming their top priority are now outdoing themselves with suggestions that will take the pressure off consumers. Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel wants relief for low-income commuters. Erwin Huber, leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) -- the Bavarian sister party of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) -- advocates general tax cuts. Even environmental expert Bärbel Höhn of the Greens -- for whom energy prices up to now couldnt rise fast enough -- is suddenly calling for limits, preferably through the introduction of red cards for speculators.
Last week witnessed the first victim of this new mood about the economy: the grand coalitions climate package. The set of measures to limit CO2 emissions was supposed to be passed in the cabinet on Tuesday. But the grand coalition's partners, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the CDU, couldnt agree on how many additional costs could still be imposed on their constituents in the face of rising energy costs. Once again, the program was put off.
This new oil and energy crisis is bringing up plenty of questions, and not just for the two main political parties. How can consumers absorb the costs? How much climate protection can be imposed on consumers if the costs of oil, natural gas, gasoline, and electricity are also rising? Should energy taxes be lowered or increased?
These questions are urgent. Energy prices are already rising higher, driven by three simultaneous factors: the growing hunger for raw materials in emerging economies such as China and India; the greed of speculators; and additional governmental charges, including those related to climate protection. According to experts predictions, the future holds more price increases -- and the change will be especially drastic for drivers.
Pain, Not Just at the Pump
Hardly a day goes by without the Chicago Board of Trade registering a new record price for a barrel of oil. And, every day, consumers feel the consequence of this most immediately at the gas pump. Last week, prices for super gasoline and diesel in Germany broke the 1.50 per liter barrier -- and there is no end in sight. Experts predict that, by the end of 2009, oil prices could rise to $200 (129) a barrel. On Wednesday, Airbus CEO Thomas Enders warned that, were that to happen, Germany's aircraft industry would "collapse."
Graphic: The Explosion in Oil Prices
And the current year will bring additional changes, according to internal calculations of Düsseldorf-based energy provider E.on, and changes that the industry has never seen. In fact, the company sees a need to adjust gas prices -- to use the euphemistic corporate jargon -- by up to 25 percent.
There is no conclusive decision yet as to exactly when the price increase will be announced and whether it would be better to make this massive jump in one step or two. But it is certain that other companies will follow E.on, the market leader, if they are not already independently planning similar price increases.
The average three-person household would then have to pay around 400 ($622) more for natural gas than it does today. From around their current 1,600 value, heating bills would jump to as high as 2,000. Even energy providers themselves believe that this would reach a magnitude that many households would find very difficult or impossible to bear. In recent years, public utilities have already reported a growing trend of outstanding debts, as more and more customers are unable to pay their bills.
Likewise, for electricity prices, no relief is in sight for consumers or the industry, and the already record prices will continue to soar.
Reduced Power Generation
The reason behind this is not just the fact that competition on the energy market has been slow in emerging or the enormous market power of Germanys four dominant energy suppliers. Dramatic changes in the power-generation industry have also had an effect on prices. The decision to abandon nuclear power made by the former red-green ruling coalition of the Social Democrats and the Greens means that, in the coming years, almost a quarter of Germanys power-generating capacity will disappear. How that lost capacity will be replaced remains an open question.
Throughout the country, there is considerable resistance to new, modern coal plants. Even completely outdated power plants are no longer replaced by the companies that run them because climate-minded citizens initiatives campaign so intensely against new billion-euro construction projects.
The German Energy Agency recently projected the consequences of this trend and reports that Germany is not only in danger of facing a shortage in the power supply, but also that increasingly scarce capacity will force substantial price increases.
Renewable energy sources, such as water, wind and solar power, will hardly be able to fill these energy gaps looming in the foreseeable future. Even the federal governments plan to secure around 30 percent of the power supply from such sources by the year 2020 is extremely ambitious -- and expensive.
In order to reach that goal, the government has been giving generous subsidies to producers of solar power, wind energy and biomass. These energy producers brought in around 7.7 billion ($12 billion) last year on top of what they collected from customers electricity bills, and this amount will see annual increases that will reach around 12.5 billion ($19.5 billion) by 2013. Subsidies for alternative energy currently cost the average German household around 30 ($47) annually and, in eight years, it will be almost twice as much.
- Part 1: Skyrocketing Oil Prices Threaten Prosperity
- Part 2: The Role of CO2 Reduction