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  The Kosovo Failure: Mission Impossible in the Balkans

The Kosovo Failure Mission Impossible in the Balkans

By Gerhard Spörl

Part 5: Que sera sera

The key figure among the Serbs was Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, a clever man and a professor of law. During the Tito era, he was fired from his university job due to his lack of obedience. He has written about the US Constitution, and he once seemed inspired by its concept of freedom. But NATO's interventions and the bombing of Belgrade transformed Kostunica from pro-American to anti-American. Today he is a nationalist, but by no means a warmonger like Slobodan Milosevic, who unleashed the Balkan wars in the 1990s and died in The Hague in 2006, where he was on trial for war crimes.

Kostunica kept returning to the bleeding of Serbia, the loss of Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina. And now Kosovo, he asked? The Serbs consider the province the cradle of their nation. In 1389, the Serbs suffered a historic defeat in the battle of Kosovo Polje (“Field of the Blackbirds"). Many of their holy sites and Serbian Orthodox monasteries are in Kosovo. Kostunica had a passage written into the country's constitution defining Kosovo as part of Serbia.

The only ones who have any sort of influence over Kostunica are the Russians. But Foreign Minister Lavrov did not seem opposed to the idea of a treaty that would leave the status question unresolved -- at least he didn't shoot down the concept when it was presented to him. Bozan-Kharchenko interpreted Lavrov's stance as a clear indication of what tack he should take. But then the Russian envoy's behavior suddenly changed, apparently in response to a new directive from Moscow. What had happened? Had Lavrov changed his mind? Had the Kremlin intervened?

Treading Water

From that point on, Bozan-Kharchenko became resistant and refused to discuss the treaty or even present it in writing.

The Serbs and the Albanians were back at the negotiating table on Nov. 5. Ischinger and Wisner neither presented nor mentioned the treaty. If they had, the trio would have fallen apart. The Serbs and the Albanians presented tentative proposals over the future status of Kosovo. They considered a model based on the Hong Kong system, under which an Albanian would be in charge in Pristina, but would still be at the mercy of Serbia. As expected, the Albanians rejected the idea. What about a confederation? It was an alternative that went too far for the Serbs and not far enough for the Albanians. We're treading water, Ischinger noted.

A few days later, Ischinger met privately with Kostunica in Vienna. After the meeting, he felt confident that the conservative nationalist prime minister was not as interested in sentimental claims to Serbia's historic sites or the Serbs still living in Kosovo. What mattered to Kostunica was geography -- the size of his country.

But what were the Russians' concerns? What did Russian President Vladimir Putin want? Putin's primary interest is that of helping his country emerge as a newly-strengthened world power, backed up by vast oil and gas reserves. For him, Kosovo is little more a parade ground where he hopes to show the Europeans and, more importantly, the US president, the limits of their power. In a speech, Foreign Minister Lavrov mentioned "two red lines" the West should not cross: the missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland, and independence for Kosovo against Serbia's will.

The trio met with the parties to the conflict once again on Nov. 20. At that meeting, Wisner and Ischinger tried to determine how far they could go and the American mediator explained the draft treaty. Within seconds, Kostunica declared haughtily that Serbia would never agree to such an underhanded effort. He insisted that practical matters could not be addressed until the status question had been resolved. It was clear that for Kostunica, status comes before partnership, not the other way around.

It was over.

State of High Alert

Ischinger had pulled out all the stops to assure the 27 countries he represented that a concerted diplomatic effort had been made to achieve a compromise between the Serbs and the Albanians. The Americans went along, even though they, as Wisner said at the beginning, considered new negotiations a waste of time. Russia also cooperated, at least for a time.

The trio met with Serbs and Albanians one last time on Nov. 26, as Weikersdorf Castle near Vienna. Although the meeting produced no palpable results, it did help to relax tensions between the adversaries. In the evening, the delegations came together for dinner at a long table in the knights' hall. Serbian President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic sat across the table from Kosovo's President Sejdiu and Prime Minister Çeku, his designated successor Hashim Thaçi and the elegant publisher Surroi. Now that they were no longer called upon to argue with each other, the men talked about their sons and daughters, and about what they had done during the Tito era. Suddenly they were civilized men with civilized concerns.

Only one man was missing at the table in the knights' hall. Prime Minister Kostunica, who wanted no part of the festivities, ate alone in a restaurant, surrounded by his bodyguards.

The trio has now completed its final report for the UN Secretary General, which the Security Council will address on Dec. 19. But what will happen in Kosovo? Hashim Thaçi, the former UÇK guerilla leader, who will soon be prime minister, has repeatedly assured the West that Kosovo will not rush into declaring its independence. Thaçi and Serbian President Tadic are said to speak on the phone occasionally. But will either of them be willing to stir up turmoil among his people?

The multinational force in Kosovo has been put under a state of high alert.

Note from the Editor: Due to an editing error pointed out by the EU, a previous version of this article could have been read to give the impression that Kosovo was on the road to becoming an "EU protectorate." Furthermore, any military presence in Kosovo will remain under NATO command.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

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