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The Kaczynskis' Dual Blockade

Poland May be Forced to Hold EU Treaty Referendum

Former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has threatened to block ratification of the EU Treaty. And even if a referendum passes, his identical twin the President says he's not sure he will sign the treaty he helped negogiate last June.

Poland's Kaczynski twins seem to like giving Brussels a headache. Last summer they brought the European Union to the brink of crisis by threatening to use Poland's veto to block the proposed Reform Treaty, now known as the Lisbon Treaty. In the end German Chancellor Angela Merkel saved the day by persuading President Lech Kaczynski to accept a slightly amended deal.

Now it seems as if that deal counted for very little. The Kaczynski twins are threatening to block Poland's ratification process. Former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski may have been voted out of office last October, but as leader of the opposition Law and Justice party he can still deprive the government of the two-thirds parliamentary majority it requires to approve the ratification.

Frustrated Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday he may have no choice but to put the treaty to a referendum if the conservative opposition continues to block it in parliament.

"If in their belligerence (the conservatives) block the Lisbon Treaty, we will have to appeal to the people in a referendum," Tusk told a news conference. "I hope this can be avoided."

While surveys indicate that Poles are overwhelmingly in favor of the treaty, it may still be difficult to ensure the 50 percent turnout required to make the results valid.

And there could be yet another stumbling block. Even if the treaty is passed, either by parliament or referendum, President Lech Kaczynski is not so sure he would sign. He now says the treaty -- the same one he agreed to back in June -- could hurt Polish interests.

The Kaczynskis worry that Tusk will adopt the Charter of Fundamental Rights which accompanies the treaty, saying it could pave the way for gay marriages in Poland. They also say they fear it could allow Germany to claim back lands that Poland was granted after World War II to compensate it for the Polish land annexed by the Soviet Union.

smd/ap