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  Italy's Cavalier Chameleon: What Does Berlusconi Have Up His Sleeve?

Italy's Cavalier Chameleon What Does Berlusconi Have Up His Sleeve?

By Alexander Smoltczyk in Rome

Part 2: Showgirls and Xenophobes

In the new Berlusconi administration's first cabinet meeting, probably next week, property taxes for first-time homebuyers will likely be abolished. It will be a popular measure in a country of homeowners, with the only losers being the municipalities. Berlusconi's last-minute campaign promise to get rid of the car and moped tax as well is no longer on the table, however. The election winner also appears to have lost interest in his promise to reform Italy's confusing election law. "After all, it worked well," Berlusconi said, explaining that only a minor correction in the Senate was required.

Berlusconi's People of Freedom alliance has actually lost votes compared with the 2006 election. This time he owes his clear victory to the Northern League, which brought in more than a million new votes to secure a majority for Berlusconi.

The Northern League, a regional party led by the political rabble-rouser Umberto Bossi, benefited from widespread dissatisfaction with the political elite. For the first time, its voters included both Fiat workers and the owners of the kinds of small and medium-sized companies which line the highway from Milan to Verona.

It would be a mistake to treat the Northern League as nothing but a xenophobic rightwing group. The party bears a stronger similarity to Germany's conservative Bavarian party the Christian Social Union (CSU) than to France's far-right National Front. It is a force anchored in its region, and it is now powerful enough to force Berlusconi to federalize Italy's financial institutions.

Casini's Christian-democratic UDC party did not manage to become a kingmaker, and is now entering opposition instead. This too was a revolution -- for the first time, the Italian clergy will no longer be able to directly influence the secular government.

Italy's political center of gravity, it seems, has shifted to the north.

Team Berlusconi

Details about the make-up of Berlusconi's new cabinet have emerged over the last few days. Contrary to previous announcements, the new government will neither be slimmer nor have more women than its predecessor. Of the probably 18 cabinet positions, only two will likely be occupied by women.

Berlusconi's right-hand man, former journalist Gianni Letta, will handle the day-to-day business of politics as deputy prime minister. Franco Frattini, the current vice-president of the European Commission, will be foreign minister, a post he held once before, from 2002 to 2004. Giulio Tremonti will also return to a position he has already held, that of finance minister. Raffaele Lombardo will serve as Berlusconi's man on Sicily, where he assumes the post of regional president.

The conservative National Alliance party will likely take control of the Justice Ministry and the Defense Ministry. Party leader Gianfranco Fini has chosen the job of chairman of the Chamber of Deputies for himself, and he has also been charged with transforming the loose-knit People of Freedom alliance into a traditional party.

Mara Carfagna, a former showgirl, is being considered as minister of social solidarity and/or family matters. The 32-year-old lawyer currently heads the women's league within Berlusconi's party.

However Berlusconi said Monday that his cabinet list was not yet finalized, and warned that he had some surprises in store. Meanwhile, the Northern League said in comments published Monday that its cabinet posts would include interior minister, reforms minister and agriculture minister. Bossi said the post of deputy prime minister would go to controversial League member Roberto Calderoli, who has outraged Muslims with anti-Islam comments and stunts in the past, such as wearing a T-shirt featuring one of the Danish Muhammad cartoons. Bossi himself is expected to become reforms minister, despite his poor health; he is still recovering from a severe stroke four years ago.

The center-left candidate, Walter Veltroni, barely escaped a crushing defeat with his newly established Democratic Party. He would have come under pressure to resign if his party had captured less than 33 percent. Instead, it came away with 33.17 percent in the Chamber of Deputies and 33.69 percent in the Senate.

As the heir apparent of the Prodi era, Veltroni failed to penetrate into the middle-class center, only managing to win over voters from the radical left. As a result, Veltroni, himself a former communist, ensured that, for the first time since World War II, there are no longer any communist factions in the Italian parliament.

The results are even unsettling for anti-communists. The unions have lost important partners in the parliament, and it is not clear how social resentment and economic dissatisfaction will be expressed within the new political constellation. There are already fears of non-parliamentary movements and wildcat strikes. Former President Francesco Cossiga even considers a new wave of 1970s-style left-wing terrorism to be possible.

These are exciting times in Italy.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

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