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Lisbon or Bust

Is Ireland on Brink of Rejecting EU Treaty?

By Siobhán Dowling

Part 2: 'The Larger States Have Made the Greater Concessions'

Admittedly the Lisbon Treaty is a complex and often convoluted work, really a series of amendments to existing treaties. Ireland's current EU commissioner, Charlie McGreevy, recently quipped that "no sane person" would read it. However, the Referendum Commission, an independent statutory body set up to provide impartial information in advance of any referendum, has taken a stab at explaining it to the electorate. Its easy-to-read guide to the salient points of the treaty landed in the post box of every household and the commission has already explained that Lisbon will not affect Ireland's neutrality or taxation.

Although the vast majority of establishment Ireland is backing the treaty, including business leaders and trade unions, the 'Yes' campaign still hardly made things easy for themselves. A row between the various parties blew up last weekend with Brian Cowen, Ireland's somewhat abrasive new prime minister, lashing out at opposition parties for not been pulling their weight in the campaign.

'Turkey's Voting for Christmas'

John McGuirk, of Libertas, a group campaigning against the referendum, says the 'Yes' campaign has tried to present the treaty as a "bland soft package that doesn’t affect anyone." Libertas is focusing its campaign on the so-called "democratic deficit" in Europe, which McGuirk argues will actually be deepened and entrenched by Lisbon. "The president and commissioners represent 500 million people and never have to ask anyone for a vote," he told SPIEGEL ONLINE. He said the increase in policy areas where majority voting will apply as well as the loss of a permanent commissioner would not be "a good deal" for Ireland. "It is like Turkeys voting for Christmas," he said.

Libertas activists believe the treaty leaves the big countries firmly in the driving seat. "France and Germany along with two other states could block any legislation. That is not good for smaller countries." IBEC's Butler disagrees. "We knew we had to reduce the number of commissioners … It's more important to have decent portfolios than every country having a commissioner." And he argues the new voting procedures are actually weighted in favor of smaller nations like Ireland. "The larger states have made the greater concessions."

While Libertas may argue Ireland could renegotiate a better deal, the tone coming out of Brussels is very different. The message is: there is no Plan B. On Monday Barrosso warned that if Ireland rejects the treaty: "We will all pay a price for it."

The irony would be that the process of further integration that began with the European Constitution that was hammered out during Ireland's 2004 EU Presidency, would see its downsized version -- the Lisbon Treaty -- perish at the hands of the Irish.

The Farmers' Wrath

One group of voters that could make a big difference in the June 12 vote are farmers. This group, normally very pro-European, is accusing EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson of trying to destroy the Irish agricultural industry. The World Trade Organization wants to remove many of the long-standing restrictions on international commerce in agriculture, and Madelson is expected to try to reach a compromise deal at the next WTO ministerial meeting at the end of June. The Irish farming community is vehemently opposed to his proposals to open up Europe to more agricultural imports.

Irish Farmer's Association spokesperson Niall Madigan told SPIEGEL ONLINE: "The proposals will wipe out our livestock sector. By our analysis, 50,000 farmers will be out of business and another 50,000 jobs in the food processing industry will be lost." Madigan claims Mandelson is essentially going to tear up the Common Agricultural Policy that governs farm production in Europe. "One arm of the EU is urging us to vote yes (to Lisbon), and the other, the commissioner, is trying to wipe out what we have."

While these resentments might have little to do with the Lisbon Treaty, they could still jeopardize it. According to an opinion poll released Thursday, four out of every 10 farmers are planning to vote 'No' while only two in 10 are voting 'Yes,' the rest are still undecided.

This is significant. The IFA is heeded not only by farmers but also rural constituencies and what Ó Broin describes as the "newly urbanized who have sympathies with farming communities." Butler warns the farmers against the making the mistake of rejecting Lisbon ahead of the ministerial talks. He says IBEC also has concerns about the WTO meeting but says: "Our people will stand a better chance with the warm wind of the 'yes' vote at their backs, than the cold and rocky turbulence of a 'No' vote."

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