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Difficult Coalition Talks

Turkey's EU Aspirations Make Cameo in Berlin

Turkey's hopes for full European Union membership could ultimately hinge on the outcome of ongoing coalition talks in Berlin. Some in Merkel's camp would like her government to explicitly reject the possibility. Others, though, say that abandoning Turkey would be a "disastrous mistake."

It is unlikely to be an anniversary that anyone wants to celebrate. This month, Turkey's accession negotiations to become a full-fledged member of the European Union turn five years old. And, with eight of 35 negotiation chapters currently frozen because of an ongoing customs dispute between Turkey and EU member Cyprus, there is no end in sight.

But worse news may soon be on the way. Chancellor Angela Merkel is currently in the process of putting together her next government in coalition with the Christian Social Union (CSU), her party's Bavarian sister, and the business-friendly Free Democrats. Both Merkel's Christian Democrats and the CSU are hostile to full Turkish membership, preferring a "privileged partnership" instead. And the CSU this week are fighting hard to get a line inserted in the new coalition agreement expressing opposition to Turkey's EU aspirations.

'Membership Cannot Be Approved'

"For us it is clear: The new coalition agreement must state explicitly that full EU membership for Turkey cannot be approved," CSU General Secretary Alexander Dobrindt told the Munich paper Münchner Merkur. The party's Europe expert Thomas Silberhorn likewise demanded that the incoming coalition be clear on its attitude toward Turkish EU membership.

The demand has shone the spotlight on a difficult foreign policy balancing act that Merkel has performed during the last four years. Under Merkel's predecessor, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of the Social Democrats, Germany's official policy was that of supporting Turkey's EU aspirations. Since 2005, when Merkel took over as head of a "grand coalition" of Christian and Social Democrats, she has left the policy alone, despite her own opposition to Turkish membership.

But now that conservatives no longer rely on the support of the center-left for power in Berlin, many worry that Germany may join France in making opposition to Turkey its official state policy.

Still, such a policy shift is by no means a foregone conclusion. The Free Democrats, while careful to say that Turkey is not yet ready for European Union membership, are strongly opposed to any language in the coalition agreement that excludes the possibility.

'Disastrous Mistake'

FDP head Guido Westerwelle reportedly said this week that the question will not be an issue in the next four years and that, as such, it didn't need to be part of the ongoing coalition negotiations. But he has been much more concrete in the past. In May he said that a discontinuation of Turkish accession talks as the CSU demands would mark "an end to intelligent foreign policy." FDP foreign policy expert Werner Hoyer has repeatedly said that it would be a "disastrous mistake" to torpedo Turkey's reform efforts by removing the carrot of EU membership.

Outgoing European Commissioner Günter Verheugen threw his hat into the ring on Tuesday as well, telling the Berlin daily Tagesspiegel that "I don't think that the future German government wants to take on the responsibility of losing Turkey for the West." Verheugen, currently the European commissioner for enterprise and energy, has long been a strong supporter of Turkish membership and worked hard for its candidacy as enlargement commissioner from 1999 to 2004.

No matter what Germany's next governing coalition decides to do, the road to Turkish membership is still a long and difficult one. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is vehemently opposed. Furthermore, talks have been opened in only 11 of the 35 negotiation chapters that must be completed before membership can be granted. An EU progress report, due out this week, is expected to include criticism on the human rights situation in Turkey as well as shortfalls in press freedoms.

An agreement reached between Turkey and Armenia on Saturday to normalize the two countries' relations fulfils one of the central conditions for Turkish EU accession.

cgh -- with wire reports