Turkey's Gamble: Crackdown Threatens EU Accession Talks
The crackdown against protesters in Istanbul by the Turkish government creates a dilemma for the EU. The Europeans don't want to tolerate violence against demonstrators, but they also don't want to lose Erdogan as a partner.
Once again, images of violence in Istanbul have been broadcast to living rooms across Europe. They showed Turkish police advancing on Taksim Square during the night with bulldozers and water cannons. For hours, officers in riot gear engaged in street fighting with protesters. On Wednesday morning, the remnants of those clashes could be seen on the cleared square.
They are worried that the violent excesses in Turkey could destroy progress made in recent months. After years of stalling, diplomats had worked painstakingly to get talks over Turkey's future European Union accession back on track. On June 26, EU foreign ministers had hoped to open a new chapter in accession talks with Turkey for the first time in three years. It would be the 19th of 35 chapters that must be completed before Ankara can join the European club.
Prospects for Talks Dim
The massive police deployment is being monitored very closely in EU capitals, including Berlin. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle described the images from Istanbul as "unsettling." He also urged Erdogan to de-escalate the situation "in the spirit of European values" and seek a "constructive exchange and peaceful dialogue." Until now, Westerwelle's position had been to open a new chapter in EU negotiations with Turkey as soon as possible. In May, he had said that a "new impetus" was needed and offered the prospect of fresh talks in the near future.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Visits Protesters
In member countries' parliaments and the European Parliament, the chorus of voices demanding that accession talks be suspended is growing. A decision by the foreign ministers to open a chapter on regional policies on June 26 could even be delayed, EU sources in Brussels said, expressing their disappointment. Turkey has been engaged in accession negotiations with the EU since 2005, but so far only one chapter has been closed -- that of science and research.
Over the weekend, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton warned there is a connection between how members of the opposition are treated in Turkey and the country's accession negotiations. And, last Thursday and Friday, EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle traveled to Turkey to get an overview of the situation himself. He visited protesters at night at Taksim Square and left with the impression that normal people were peacefully exercising their freedom of assembly. In a public speech given in Erdogan's presence the next day, he said those responsible for the violence should be held accountable. The Turkish prime minister responded by saying it was he who would decide what was in Turkey's best interests.
EU Has Few Means for Applying Pressure
For the EU, the situation presents a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, officials don't want to watch silently as violence is inflicted upon peaceful protesters. All the same, they don't want to lose Ergodan as a partner. "There have been many reforms recently in Turkey," European Commission sources say. "It wouldn't be good to discontinue negotiations." The hope in Brussels is that Erdogan will start a face-saving retreat in the coming days. The fact that he plans to meet with protest leaders on Wednesday is already being perceived as a positive sign.
Grant points out that Turkey's EU partners also have no real means with which to pressure Erdogan to reason, however. "The threat to suspend membership talks is an empty threat," Grant said. "Erdogan won't mind. He has other priorities."
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