Eyjafjallajökull Awakens: How an Icelandic Volcano Shut Down Europe's Airspace

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But perhaps no one was more surprised by the Icelandic volcano's spectacular effect than volcanologists themselves, who are well accustomed to things far worse than Eyjafjallajökull.

Haraldur Sigurdsson, an Icelandic volcanologist, knows the tremors and vibrations of Iceland's volcanoes better than almost anyone else. "Each one has its own character," he says. Eyjafjallajökull, at 700,000 years old, is one of the island's oldest volcanoes, and not very active. "It's more of an introvert," Sigurdsson explains. "I would say: a weary old man."

Yet none other than this old man among volcanoes has managed to create chaos across an entire continent. One factor exacerbating this eruption was the fact that the rising magma mixed with ice in the crater. As the blazing hot lava hit the 200-meter (650-foot) thick glacier, the ice turned explosively to steam. "In the process, the magma was absolutely pulverized," Sigurdsson says.

Weather also conspired against Europe. Just as the volcano was erupting, the North Atlantic jet stream was passing over Iceland from the northwest, carrying myriad sharp-edged particles on a collision course with Europe's air fleets. "It's as if it's jinxed," says Helmut Malewski, who is tracking the ash cloud at Germany's National Meteorological Service's central forecasting office. "The wind blew from the east all winter. But just now, when the volcano goes active, it blows from the northwest." Dryness was another factor. "One strong rainstorm over the North Sea would have washed out the ash and helped us dramatically," Malewski says.

Disrupting the Climate

Still, things could have been a lot worse. In the past, volcanoes have disrupted the Earth's climate again and again. After the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, average global temperatures cooled by half a degree Celsius. Volcanoes are also the suspected culprits behind the mini ice age that occurred during the 17th and 18th centuries.

Despite its might, Eyjafjallajökull hasn't forced its plume high enough for that to happen. Ash from the volcano's plume has reached an altitude of only about 10 kilometers (six miles), not high enough to reach the stratosphere. "So the gas and particles will remain below that in the troposphere and will be carried down to the Earth's surface by rain in the coming days or weeks," says Michael Bittner of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in Oberpfaffenhofen.

The volcano has also blown less toxic ash and gasses into the air than many of its cousins. Bittner and his team have reviewed images taken by the Eumetsat satellite and concluded that Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull has spewed 2,000 tons of sulphur dioxide into the air. Pinatubo spouted 10,000 times that amount. "Even if it remains active for an extended period of time, it still won't come anywhere close to the scale of Pinatubo," Bitter predicted.

But all that could change if Eyjafjallajökull awakens its larger brothers. The Katla volcano, barely 25 kilometers to the east, has enormously higher explosive power. It also has a rather nasty habit of erupting shortly after Eyjafjallajökull. The last major eruption of Eyjafjallajökull lasted for two years, ending in 1823 when Katla erupted like a massive cannon.

Fire-Spewing Giant

So far, Katla hasn't reacted -- GPS stations haven't registered any movements in its slopes. But there's still another fire-spewing giant in the area -- Heckla. "That volcano erupts, with a regularity that astonishes geologists, every 10 years," says Thomas Walter of the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam. "It is long overdue."

Such chain reactions are not uncommon for volcanic mountain ranges, especially in Iceland. "If one volcano erupts next to a neighboring one where pressure has also built up, then it can give it the decisive kick," says Walter. But he won't venture to predict when the next volcano will erupt.

The dangers posed by volcanoes are significant. In 1989, an ash plume from the Mt. Redoubt volcano caused engine failure in a jumbo jet operated by the Dutch airline KLM over Alaska. The cockpit windows and shell of the 747 were literally sand-blasted. St. Elmo's fire flashed in front of the cockpit glass, glowing ash embers lit up between the engine blades and it smelled of sulfer inside the cabin.

Pilots learn a special procedure for such moments: They continuously ignite the engine to prevent engine failure, begin a descent in order to maintain speed and then turn around. "You go back as quickly as you can to an area where there wasn't any ash," says Lufthansa Captain Jörg Handwerg.

There's good reason, too: The engines are fighting for life. The ash particles melt in the turbine and they can clog the engine's cooling air bores.

Millions at Stake

Still, that kind of horror scenario can only really happen in the heart of an ash plume. Across most of Europe this week, the concentration of ash particles has been low, and the consequences for airplanes would have been much less dramatic. It still would have been costly, though, because even in low concentrations, the particles grind against a jet engine's blades.

"The effect of an ash plume like that on an engine is equivalent to about five years of flight," says Odilo Mühling of German jet engine manufacturer MTU. Airlines that attempt to fly before the cloud has cleared up entirely risk costly repair bills.

For the airlines, it's a torturous numbers game. On the one hand, it can cost an airline more than €10 million per day if it is forced to ground its entire fleet. On the other hand, they also know that it cost over $80 million to overhaul the KLM jumbo jet, which was brand new and had only just gone into service, after it flew through the volcanic ash plume in Alaska.

REPORTED BY DINAH DECKSTEIN, MANFRED DWORSCHAK, MARCO EVERS, CORDULA MEYER, GERALD TRAUFETTER

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• Part 1: How an Icelandic Volcano Shut Down Europe's Airspace
• Part 2: Iceland's 'Weary Old Man'