'A Toxic System': Why Austerity Still Isn't Working in Greece
Despite drastic austerity measures, a new Greek debt haircut looks unavoidable. The old system has proven resistant to reform and billions in emergency aid hasn't been enough to turn things around.
After making a lot of money manufacturing swimming pools, Stelios Stavridis has redirected his entrepreneurial talents toward saving his country.
Stavridis is the third man to hold the position in only a year, but this doesn't reduce his professional confidence. He says he has just had "excellent" conversations with observers from the so-called troika, consisting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB), who regularly review the country's progress.
However, Stavridis also had to confess to the troika that his agency is unlikely to meet its goals for this year. The planned sale of the national gas company to the Russian Gazprom conglomerate fell apart at the last minute, and now a 652 million ($839 million) deal for the privatization of gambling company OPAP is also on the rocks, because the buyer feels that he is being cheated.
This means Stavridis will almost certainly fail to reach his original 2013 privatization goal of 2.6 billion. Because of these and other difficulties, the financing plan for Greece now faces a large shortfall of 11.1 billion by 2015.
Yet Another Debt Haircut?
Greece's euro partners have already pledged more than 230 billion in aid, and government spending has also been slashed by dozens of billions. Representatives of Greek business are now convinced that the country cannot survive without yet another debt haircut.
The subject is politically sensitive, especially in Germany, because this time a debt haircut would also affect public creditors, which already hold 80 percent of Greek sovereign debt. In other words, a large share of German assistance loans would be irretrievably lost.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is still strongly opposed to a debt haircut, fearing that Greece's enthusiasm over reforms will vanish once financial pressure subsides. The country needs more than money alone to get back on its feet. Even the IMF is critical of the devastating effects of austerity programs on the country's economy. But that is only half the truth. The fact is that while Greece has drastically cut spending, efforts at structural reform are stagnating. This also hampers economic success.
When the troika observers first arrived in the country in 2010, they were surprised at just how overregulated the economy was, at how inefficient the entire government and judicial apparatus had become. Not even the estimated government deficit for 2009 was correct. When it was recalculated, 6 percent turned into 12.7 percent and eventually even went up to 15.6 percent.
Six austerity programs later, the deficit is expected to decline to about 4 percent for this year. Greece's euro partners attribute this success to the efforts of conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. "The current government is finally strongly committed to bringing order to the state," says Panos Carvounis, a representative of the European Commission in Athens. "Things are moving."
'Greek Success Story?'
According to Carvounis, the country finally has a complete picture of its revenues and expenditures, and Samaras has made progress with reforms of the healthcare system. The labor market has also been radically reformed. Greece's costly multi-employer collective bargaining agreements are now history, and the rules governing settlement payments to laid-off workers are no longer as stringent as they used to be.
This spring, because of these successes, it seemed that the country was out of the woods. Unit labor costs, seen as an indicator of a country's competitiveness, had declined by 10 percent compared to 2007, thanks to the easing of labor market regulations. Major corporations like Unilever, Philip Morris and Hewlett-Packard were announcing substantial investment plans.
During a visit to Beijing, Samaras overconfidently touted what he called his "Greek success story."
But what outsiders see as successful reforms come at the expense of ordinary Greeks. A few hundred meters from the office of EU representative Carvounis, a retiree shot himself to death last year because of financial problems. Surveys show that household income has plunged by almost 40 percent since the crisis began. Some 64 percent of young people are unemployed, and the healthcare system, after several rounds of austerity cuts, is on the verge of collapse. In many public hospitals, patients have to pay for their own bandages and swabs, while relatives are called upon to care for them, because of a shortage of nurses.
'Our Political System is Toxic'
In light of such conditions, the troika has often proposed that the wealthy be required to play a stronger role in financing the government. But even the Samaras administration shies away from challenging their influential lobbying groups. Greek ship owners, for instance, the country's most powerful business group, contribute little to the country's recovery. In fact, their ample revenues from shipping are tax-exempt.
"Our political system is toxic," says Antigone Lyberaki, 54, an economics professor at Panteion University in Athens. According to Lyberaki, the government apparatus and economic structure were destroyed by decades in which bribes and political relationships were more important than performance.
It was only one of hundreds of bitter conflicts over the gradual liberalization of Greece's utterly overregulated economy.
- Part 1: Why Austerity Still Isn't Working in Greece
- Part 2: An Uphill Battle to Reform
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