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'This Is the End of the Grand Coalition'

Vice Chancellor Franz Müntefering's resignation has shaken Germany's grand coalition. German commentators feel that his departure marks the beginning of the 2009 election campaign -- and two years of stalemate for Germany.

A shock went through German politics Tuesday when Vice Chancellor and Labor Minister Franz Müntefering announced his resignation. Although there had been earlier speculation that he might quit, the news that the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) was losing one of its most experienced and respected politicians still came as a surprise -- and raised serious questions about the future of Germany's grand coalition government, comprised of the SPD and Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU).

Although Müntefering insisted that he was resigning purely out of personal reasons -- his wife is suffering from cancer -- most observers saw the timing of his decision as linked to his defeat in a coalition summit Monday night. Müntefering had tried to push through a minimum wage for postal workers but the CDU played hardball, presenting three proposals which were unacceptable to the SPD. The issue was buried, and a deeply disappointed Müntefering accused the CDU of not keeping to its promises.

After Müntefering announced his resignation Tuesday morning, there was immediately speculation that SPD leader Kurt Beck might step into his party colleague's shoes. However, Beck put an end to the speculation Tuesday afternoon when he announced that he would not be taking over either of Müntefering's posts. Instead, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will take over Müntefering's role as vice chancellor, while Olaf Scholz, currently the SPD parliamentary floor manager, will take over as labor minister.

Beck clearly prefers to stay on in his current position as governor of the state of Rhineland-Palatinate to joining Merkel's cabinet in Berlin. Observers believe he wants to remain in the state capital of Mainz in order to prepare his candidacy to be chancellor in 2009, with the idea being that he can attack Merkel better from outside the cabinet.

One thing is sure: Müntefering's departure does not bode well for the future of Germany's grand coalition. Müntefering and Merkel enjoyed a close and trusting relationship, and the former SPD leader is widely seen as being the man who made the grand coalition possible -- he helped negotiate the coalition contract in 2005 -- and held it together.

With Müntefering gone, there is likely to be more conflict between the coalition partners, as both parties focus on staking out their positions and identifying election issues ahead of the 2009 election. This could mean a two-year political stalemate in Europe's largest economy -- or even early elections, if the coalition falls apart.

Müntefering's resignation dominated the editorial pages of Germany's main papers Wednesday. Most commentators were sad to see Müntefering go and predicted troubled waters ahead for the grand coalition.

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"This is the end of the grand coalition. The only thing we don't know is how long it will drag on. If it lasts a long time, it may survive until 2009 and the end of the current legislative period -- but the smart money is not on that alternative. At the least, this is the end of a fairly successful coexistence of the coalition partners. It is the end of the necessary minimum of trust between the SPD and the CDU …. The grand coalition has now de facto split, even if it still exists on paper, and a long election campaign lies between the actual and the contractual death of the coalition."

"It was not Franz Müntefering who heralded the beginning of the election campaign, but Chancellor Angela Merkel. She dismissed one of Müntefering's core political concerns, the introduction of a minimum wage for postal workers, in such a way that he felt tricked, disappointed, snubbed and betrayed. His minimum wage proposal was already a compromise offer to the SPD's coalition partner. … But the chancellor treated him as if he was just some insignificant little minister. It was a calculated provocation that hit the coalition like a lightning bolt. … Müntefering's resignation was the thunder clap that followed."

"There are still people who underestimate Merkel's genius for power. These people believe that the chancellor is not in control on the domestic stage because she spends too much time on the red carpets of the world. … The criticism is correct, but nonetheless the conclusion is wrong. The chancellor is completely in control of the reins of power."

The conservative Die Welt writes:

"It's been clear for the past few weeks that the CDU and SPD have been taking a harder line with each other. Both are struggling to raise their profile; both are preparing for the coming election campaign. With the coalition summit and the resignation of Franz Müntefering, this development will further accelerate."

"As labor minister and vice chancellor, Franz Müntefering was the SPD's technocrat and strong man in the government. It was he who negotiated the grand coalition contract with Angela Merkel and later put it into practice. Merkel valued his discretion, loyalty and responsible leadership. It's hard to imagine that she will build such a close and trusting relationship with his successors, especially as they are sharing Müntefering's positions between them."

The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"In actual fact, the SPD should really have left the coalition this week. All leading Social Democrats personally accuse the coalition partners and Chancellor Angela Merkel of breaking their word and deceiving the SPD in the dispute over a minimum wage in the postal sector. The coalition leadership is supposed to have agreed at the cabinet meeting in Meseberg … to introduce minimum wages for postal workers by the end of this year. Merkel is said to have personally given Müntefering her word. … If not now, when otherwise could a party threaten to break up the coalition?"

"The conversation that Müntefering and Merkel had Tuesday about the future of the coalition demonstrated the trust that formed one of the foundations of the coalition. Both were able to rely on each other, and they did so. There was one exception: From Müntefering's point of view, Merkel had broken her promises on a minimum wage in the postal sector and thus destroyed the trust."

"But the SPD leadership did not consider putting an end to the coalition now -- precisely because of the uncertainties over who would succeed Müntefering. The issue of the minimum wage is certainly important to the SPD … but it is not everything in the SPD's and the government's policies and not even the most important thing. … In reality, the coalition has proven itself to be capable of getting work done in terms of everyday governing."

The center-left Berliner Zeitung writes:

"Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Olaf Scholz are supposed to fill the vacuum that Müntefering has left. The two will not be able to. Although Steinmeier enjoys a positive image among the general population, the future vice chancellor is not as firmly anchored in his own party as Müntefering was. And the colorless Scholz is unlikely to gain greater authority as a minister. But it suits Kurt Beck's purposes just fine that two politically weaker politicians are taking over Müntefering's offices, as his own influence within the party will grow as a result."

"Beck has won unchallenged power within the Social Democrats for now, but his responsibility has also grown by the same degree. This is the background behind Beck's decision not to take over Müntefering's offices in the government, because he wants to remain outside cabinet discipline. That may make tactical sense, but it will not do anything to promote political leadership. Beck clearly wants to be the leader of the opposition, but his party sits in government with at least eight ministers. This has two consequences. Germany's politics over the next two years will be characterized by disputes and stalemates. And Beck's popularity will remain low."

"Müntefering's resignation throws the lack of adequate candidates for major political offices into even sharper relief. Müntefering proved himself to be -- precisely at the end of his political career -- someone who stands by his convictions in the face of stiff resistance. Germany now has one fewer of those increasingly rare figures."

SPIEGEL ONLINE writes:

"Franz Müntefering is history. Theoretically, the way would now be free for a clear balance of power in the SPD for a boss who doesn't just visit the capital city but has the reins here firmly in hand. … But does Beck want power? To be vice chancellor of Germany is no small matter."

"Beck moving to Berlin? That would be quite wrong, whisper the spindoctors in SPD headquarters. Beck can attack the chancellor far better from Mainz -- he can be freer to act if he is outside the cabinet, they say. Beck as a loose cannon in the provinces? The shots could well backfire."

"The prospects for the 2009 election are not indicative of a change of power, neither to the left nor to the right. A continuation of the current grand coalition, with a slightly stronger CDU and a slightly weakened SPD, for the time being looks like the most probable outcome. Beck would then have to choose between being vice chancellor and leading the parliamentary group. Under such circumstances, Mainz naturally looks cozier than Berlin. But why should someone lead the SPD who does not believe that his party can win an election?"

-- David Gordon Smith, 3:00 p.m. CET