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The World from Berlin

'Nature Has Dealt the Burmese Junta a Devastating Blow'

The cyclone that hit Burma over the weekend has killed tens of thousands and made more than a million homeless. The Burmese government has asked for international help -- and the consequences could be remarkable.

Days after Cyclone Nargis devastated the southeast Asian nation of Burma, aid agencies are rushing to help millions of people affected by the storm. The death toll is already more than 22,000, and as towns and villages isolated by the storm are contacted the number of confirmed deaths is expected to rise. The Burmese government says more than a million people are homeless.

Aid officials fear the situation could go from bad to nightmarish if something isn't done soon. But the aid effort is coming up against one of the most secretive, isolationist regimes in the world. Burma is ruled by a military dictatorship that has regularly used force to suppress democracy activists and monks. Foreign reporters are banned from the country, and aid workers are having a hard time getting in as well.

Burmese government officials have offered an unprecedented level of cooperation, perhaps an indication of the disaster's scope. "The task is very wide and extensive," Information Minister Kyaw Hsan told Reuters on Tuesday. "The government needs the co-operation of the people and well-wishers from at home and abroad. We will not hide anything."

In Germany, commentators are searching for a silver lining, suggesting that the flow of aid and Western personnel into the secretive nation could spell the end for the the Burmese military's rule. But the next few weeks will be delicate -- for the Burmese as well as the international community.

The business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"Together with North Korea and Zimbabwe, Burma is one of the few countries in the world ruled by true despots. But Burma still has a lobby: Only seldom does the international community take an interest in its fate. The last time was when the anger of the country's Buddhist monks over conditions of hunger and poverty showed itself in demonstrations that were brutally suppressed. The US and the EU imposed sanctions, but they fizzled because neighbors like Thailand, China and India propped up the regime with investment, financing and raw material shipments in the interest of keeping the country stable."

"As long as the international community remains divided on the subject of sanctions -- and all the indications are that they will -- the oppressed Burmese will have to rely on themselves. Still, the aid deliveries after the cyclone give them a glimmer of hope: without foreign assistance, even the obstinate military regime has acknowledged, Burma will suffer tremendously in the next few weeks. The arrival of assistance in the insular nation could awaken an unexpected strength in a populace that has stood on the verge of revolt in the past. The junta must prepare itself for a bitter resistance ahead."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Burma is a tragic case. A once-wealthy land has become the region's poorhouse, and neither the Burmese nor the rest of the world have figured out a way to relieve the misery there. ..."

"For more than four decades Burmese have lived under a dictatorship. It's the longest-ruling military dictatorship in the world."

"But once the long-locked gates are opened, their guards will have no more control over what happens in the country. And later, when Burma has been cleaned up, it will be very difficult to shut the gates again -- if not altogether impossible."

"A new dynamic, indeed. Forces with unknown consequences are at play now. But there's a lot to indicate that the political history of Burma will be divided into the pre- and post-Nargis eras. Natural disasters are decisive moments, and sometimes they let individuals -- for example, a heretofore-unknown democracy-minded officer -- come into their own. That, too, is a possibility."

Left-leaning Berliner Zeitung urges the international community to be careful:

"Yes, it is a critical situation. Anyone who has lived under a dictatorship knows that even small crises can seem dangerously disastrous. ..."

"Are catastrophes also a chance for the opponents of dictatorships?"

"One would like to think that the disaster will bring down the Burmese regime. Or at least let a little light into the isolated land. What general can justify devoting resources to keeping the Burmese opposition isolated when it will need all its strength to fight the consequences of the cyclone?"

"Yes, in crisis there may be opportunity -- indirectly. But that's why it should be approached carefully. The worst thing would be if international aid were tied to political change in Burma. Some might fancy their political goals as the most important thing, and set humanitarian issues second. It's just these sorts of ideas which show that we must always remind ourselves of the human element -- even in countries without dictatorships."

Conservative daily Die Welt writes:

"Burma is a cursed land. Politically it is a dead end that no amount of peaceful protests led by Buddhist monks could open up. A world-famous angelic civil rights leader by the name of Aung San Suu Kyi has been sitting under house arrest for years because she competed with the military rulers in an election and had the temerity to win. ..."

"Then came the cyclone. Burma's brave monks got the world to pay a little bit of attention just recently. But still, because the country is closed to outsiders and doesn't have the mythical allure of much smaller Tibet, it failed to awaken global sympathies. The international aid that is on its way to Burma may pave the way for change. The military dictatorship can't prevent that. And journalists will follow, reporting openly from within Burma. In the end, Nature has dealt the Burmese junta its most devastating blow yet."

-- Andrew Curry, 12:15 p.m. CET