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The Weather in 100 Years

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Germany

By Axel Bojanowski

Part 4: The Consequences of Climate Change for the Plant World

The effect climate change will have on Germany's forests is still uncertain. Forestry experts believe that beech trees will continue to thrive, while the spruce will be less adept at withstanding higher temperatures. The experts recommend planting mixed forests to increase their resistance to climate change.

Farmers will also have to react and emphasize varieties that are more suitable for the new climate, which would mean planting more millet and less wheat, for example. With a longer growing season, farmers could enjoy several harvests a year. In only 30 years, according to the MPI-M, the first buds will already start appearing in mid-February, and not in March, as they do today. Trees could keep their leaves until mid-November, or about half a month longer than today. "By the end of the century, the growing season in northern Germany will even last the entire year, from January to December," say the MPI-M scientists.

More Abundant Harvests and New Grain Varieties

Agriculture can expect rising crop yields, says agrarian researcher Olaf Christen of the University of Halle-Wittenberg in eastern Germany. But, according to Christen, the higher yields would not be the result of warmer winters, but of increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the air, which would act as a fertilizer. "In the future," says Christen, "winter varieties of oats, peas and field beans could be grown, varieties that have rarely survived the cold season until now."

In addition, scientists are already experimenting with new types of grain that promise higher yields in a warmer climate, says Gerhard Wenzel of the Technical University of Munich. "We are working with scientists in Mexico to develop the new varieties." According to Wenzel, there is an urgent need for action, because summer heat has destroyed some of the wheat harvest in Germany in recent years.

German Red Wine instead of Riesling

Fans of domestic wines can also look forward to Germany becoming a red wine producer, says MPI-M expert Kotlarski. As temperatures rise, the geographic boundary for wine production will shift northward. Higher temperatures lead to better wines, because they increase the sugar content of grapes and the alcohol content of the distillate. Sought-after types of grape from southern Europe will be brought in, says Frank Eulenstein of the Leibnitz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research.

Will vintners from the Rhineland be producing Merlots and Cabernets? Probably so, in 50 years. But whether the Riesling grape, which takes a long time to mature and tolerates heat poorly, will still be growing along the Mosel River by then seems doubtful. One problem that the industry could face is increased rainfall in the fall. "It jeopardizes the grape harvest," says Eulenstein, "potentially causing rot."

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