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  Letter From Berlin: Merkel's Authority under Fire

Letter From Berlin Merkel's Authority under Fire

By Markus Feldenkirchen, Roland Nelles and Rene Pfister

Part 2: Accusations of Flip-Flopping

As a result of her vacillation, the conservatives are even losing ground on issues that until recently were part of its core values -- tax policy, for example.

At first Merkel was strongly opposed to the CSU's demands for tax cuts. But Seehofer needled the chancellor until she finally gave in. Significant power is vested in the office of chancellor. But in the end, leadership can only succeed if it is backed by conviction. This is a problem for Merkel because no one can say what exactly her convictions are.

This vacuum is now being filled by people whose convictions aren't any deeper, but who don't shy away from constantly churning out arbitrary proposals. Seehofer, for example, has no shortage of ideas to fill the remaining months between now and the Sept. 27 general election.

Under one of the CSU leader's proposals, referendums should be held on important questions of European policy, a position that contradicts everything the CDU has ever stood for. Seehofer is also picking quarrels with Merkel on healthcare policy. He asked Markus Söder, the Bavarian regional health minister, to develop a counterproposal to the Health Fund, a key element of Merkel's health reform. The concept is to be approved by the CSU leadership in early April. "The CDU doesn't like it, of course," says Söder cheerfully.

Seehofer made his low opinion of Merkel's tactical skills clear to her in a one-on-one meeting last Wednesday. Before the meeting, Merkel had called upon the pope to clearly distance himself from Holocaust denier Richard Williamson. Seehofer told the chancellor that such statements would be the source of "irritation."

Seventy-seven percent of CSU members are Catholic, and Seehofer is a great populist more than anything else. He knows how unpopular scolding the pope, who comes from the town of Marktl am Inn in Upper Bavaria, is among his conservative voters.

His stance is reinforced by the outrage that Merkel's words triggered in the CSU, to the astonishment of the rest of the country. Former party chairman Edmund Stoiber called Seehofer several times. Alois Glück, the former speaker of the Bavarian state parliament, said it was "not the responsibility of elected officials to comment on the pope."

Looming Election Campaigns

There are fundamental issues that divide Seehofer and Merkel. The Bavarian politician, for example, would have no problem launching the election campaign right now.

When Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel of the SPD allowed the negotiations over the Environmental Code to fail, he seized on the move to declare to a small group of listeners. "As far as I'm concerned, this is more or less the end of the grand coalition."

He knows that his supporters have long grown tired of making compromises with the SPD. Merkel has completely different plans. She wants to govern as quietly as possible, for as long as possible, and then begin a short but energetic election campaign in August.

She likes to portray herself as a presidential chancellor, as someone who is above petty party squabbling. A lengthy campaign could only be detrimental to her.

It is these differences within the conservative camp that are starting to reinvigorate the SPD, which has yet to recover from a sharp slump in opinion poll ratings over the last year. Objectively speaking, the center-left party is in a far worse starting position than the conservatives.

SPD Weak in Polls but Well Organized

But the SPD's great strength has always been and still is organization. SPD leader Franz Müntefering and his party manager Kajo Wasserhövel have already planned out the campaign down to the last detail. According to the internal script at party headquarters, the year has been divided into four phases. The plan is outlined in a document with the lackluster title Campaign 09.

Phase One, titled "Time to Get Going -- For Our Country," has already begun and will last until the end of April. In this phase, SPD officials intend to pursue something they call "Light Campaigning." Officially, they insist that the SPD is continuing to govern in the interest of the country. At the same time, the

The SPD is already trying to establish as much distance as possible between itself and Merkel and her conservatives. The Social Democrats are constantly looking for ways to make the conservatives look like fools. The uproar over the Environmental Code is seen as a successful overture.

More conflicts are expected to follow soon, especially on the issue of executive pay. The SPD wants to campaign for rules that would impose clear sanctions on poorly performing executives. One idea is to require top executives to tie more of their personal assets to the success of their company.

The European parliamentary election campaign will ring in Phase Two. The actual campaign for election to the German parliament, the Bundestag, or Phase Three, begins after the European election on June 7. According to the SPD campaign plan, the working titles of that phase are "Social Rules for the Market Economy" and "Frank Steinmeier: His Ideas. His Dream." The goal of this phase will be to present chancellor candidate Steinmeier and the SPD's key leaders as a clear alternative to the conservative team.

No CDU Campaign Plan Yet

In addition to Steinmeier, two senior SPD officials will play a decisive role in the campaign: Müntefering and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück. The party is also considering adding Nahles or Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit to the team. The SPD then plans to launch Phase Four, the hot campaign phase, in mid-August. The working title of that phase is: "Time for Decisions. Frank Steinmeier Must Become Chancellor." Of course, no one can deny the Social Democrats the right to make this assertion.

The conserviatives still lack a comparable concept. Merkel is still pondering her campaign strategy. It is already clear that tax reform will be a major issue, and a joint CDU and CSU program is expected to be on the table by Easter. The only problem is that the two parties are at loggerheads over this issue. Seehofer wants the government to clearly inform citizens as to when they can expect to see more cash in their wallets. Merkel, for her part, prefers not to get into the details.

The CSU leader is relatively confident that he will prevail. At the end of his speech at the toy convention, Seehofer briefly addressed national politics in Berlin, only to end on a patronizing note, when he said that the chancellor would, of course, give the audience a lecture on the subject. "You can assume," Seehofer said confidently, "that everything happens with the support of the CSU."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan