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Letter from Berlin

The Fraying Coalition in Berlin

By Charles Hawley

Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition appears to be weakening as the general elections approach. The country's two leading political camps can find little common ground -- despite the fact they may have to re-marry this autumn.

When Renate Künast describes the political situation in Berlin these days, she likes to say: "This country doesn't have a government anymore." And a quick glance at the polls seems to indicate that the parliamentary floor leader of Germany's opposition Green Party is not the only one who feels that way.

According to a poll released on Thursday night, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) have tanked to their lowest ratings since November 2006 -- a mere 32 percent of German voters would cast their ballots for the Merkel camp if the election were held on Sunday. Party support during Merkel's term peaked at 42 percent in May 2005.

The country, in short, appears to be tiring of the government in Berlin, which unites two parties who generally view each other as arch political rivals in a single government. The coalition -- which pairs Merkel's conservatives with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) -- looks to be tiring of itself. "One can see the beginning of the end of the grand coalition," said Peter Ramsauer, a leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's CDU, which is also part of the government.

Ramsauer was speaking late on Wednesday night following hours of difficult negotiations among leading coalition politicians. And the talks were symptomatic of the mood in Berlin. Almost no progress was made on a long list of issues facing the government. Indeed, agreement could only be found when it came to the decidedly populist issue of limiting salaries paid to top managers. In the future, supervisory boards will be obliged to cut manager salaries in economically difficult times.

Yet while Germany's political class has tried to sell that small bit of consensus as proof that Merkel's coalition still has things under control, most observers aren't buying it. Indeed, the harder one looks for signs of solidarity between the parties that have governed Germany for the last three and a half years, the clearer it becomes that the pre-campaign political positioning has commenced.

The SPD has been quick to deny it. Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück, a heavy hitter in the SPD, said on Thursday that his party would "work together with the union (eds. note: a reference to the CDU and CSU) in a professional manner as long as possible."

How long that might be, however, is a matter of pure speculation. Following Wednesday night's meeting, both sides accused the other of unwillingness to compromise. Indeed, given the conflict, Steinbrück said on Thursday that "I can only recommend that one not start a bar room brawl."

It is, of course, hardly surprising that Germany's general election campaign would begin inside of Chancellor Merkel's cabinet. After all, for most of Germany's history, the SPD and the conservatives have been more akin to oil and water than to sugar and spice. The only other time the parties joined together to run the government in Berlin was a brief period in the 1960s -- a partnership that broke apart as soon as the next elections came around.

This time, though, the parties may be facing an even greater challenge: not only will the two camps be campaigning against each other while at the same time trying to steer Germany through its worst economic crisis in decades. But it will do so in the knowledge that, given the now-crowded party landscape in Germany, a continuation of the grand coalition is a very real possibility.

The tight-rope walk is already well underway. Last week, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is also the SPD's candidate for chancellor, showed up at the Opel factory in Rüsselsheim to pledge his solidarity with workers in danger of losing their jobs. Steinmeier also presented a plan last week for a "fundamental reform of the financial markets. And SPD leaders have shown an eagerness to criticize parliamentarian Erika Steinbach, the controversial head of the Federation of Expellees, a group dedicated to remembering the millions of German expelled from Eastern Europe following World War II.

Throughout it all, though, Steinmeier has been careful to insist that he has not begun campaigning. Instead, his party ally Steinbrück says that at some point there will be an "intense democratic competition." But not yet.

For now, the SPD can afford to hold back. The Thursday poll shows the party still lags behind the conservatives, with just 27 percent support. But that number is higher than it has been in months. And, for now at least, Merkel's party has been doing a decent job of repelling voters itself.

On the one hand, Merkel has frightened away the conservative wing of her party with Berlin's state-heavy reaction to the financial crisis. Partial bank nationalizations and talk of expropriations have done her no favors, even as the list of alternatives was short. The ongoing rise of the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) has come largely at the expense of the CDU.

On the other, Merkel has been her normal, deliberative self. Many have accused her of being slow to throw her support behind party-ally Steinbach last week and she has also not cut a good figure in the ongoing search for a solution to Opel's troubles, seemingly grasping for ways to buy time. Even the one time she has climbed onto her pulpit recently has generated criticism. Her public demand that Pope Benedict XVI clearly distance himself from the Holocaust denying Bishop Richard Williamson was not universally welcomed in Germany's Catholic regions.

Still, Germans remain enamoured of their chancellor. Were voters given the right to select an individual instead of a party, the Thursday poll showed that Merkel would receive 48 percent of votes compared to Steinmeier's 34 percent. But in order to succeed in September, the chancellor will have to begin rallying her party soon.

And begin preparing for another term at the head of a grand coalition.