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The Ghosts of Schröder

SPD Looks to EU Elections for Success in Germany

By SPIEGEL Staff

Four years ago, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder staged a dramatic comeback on election night. He ultimately fell short, but his Social Democrats are hoping his campaign could provide a recipe for success this year. The European elections on Sunday could be telling.

There is a new category of politician in Germany. It's called "the Kirchhof," named after Paul Kirchhof, a former judge on the country's federal constitutional court who Chancellor Angela Merkel brought onto her campaign team in 2005.

It proved to be a disastrous decision. Then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder quickly refocused his entire campaign, aiming squarely at Kirchhof's perceived lack of concern for ordinary Germans. Schröder blasted "the professor," as he called Kirchhof, for his flat tax proposal and portrayed him as bookish and cold, a characterization that made the Schröder's Social Democratic (SPD) platform seem all the more social-minded and compassionate by comparison. The strategy enabled the SPD to rapidly catch up to the Christian Democrats in the last few weeks of that year's general campaign.

Four years later, as this year's campaign gets rolling, the situation for the SPD is similar. Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently 10 percentage points ahead of the Social Democrats in the polls. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the SPD's candidate for chancellor, urgently needs another Kirchhof. And after the Opel negotiations over the weekend, it appears that they might have found their man.

Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, a member of the CSU, seems to be doing all he can to embody the SPD villain. His suggestions that it might be better to allow Opel to file for bankruptcy provided exactly the opening Steinmeier and the rest of the SPD was looking for. The criticism of Guttenberg coming from the left has been pointed and consistent this week.

Meekness of Present-Day SPD Leaders

But when it comes to campaign attacks, no one in the SPD is quite as skilled as Schröder, as he reminded his party at an appearance on Monday. In his heyday, the ex-chancellor set a new standard for self-serving campaign bluster, often steamrolling his opponents in the process. Now on the political sidelines, he has for some time been impatient with the meekness of present-day SPD leaders.

Early last week, however, Schröder reawakened the ghosts of 2005 during an event at an abandoned steel mill in Ilsede, a town in the northern state of Lower Saxony. He stepped up to the lectern, took a deep breath and let loose. He sharply criticized Guttenberg, "that baron from Bavaria," for having no answers for the Opel crisis nor for those at other companies. Besides, he said, the conservatives' entire financial and economic policy is muddled. "Anyone who is calling for tax cuts at this time is either clueless or a con artist," Schröder said, in reference to Merkel's call for lower taxes. He added that immoderate and incapable managers ought to be driven out of their jobs -- "but without severance payments." The 600 party members in the room cheered in delight.

The new "professor" is a "baron," a man who supposedly has no compassion for the hardships of workers at Opel and who can easily be accused of tending toward the neo-liberal, especially because of his aristocratic background -- at least in Schröder's mind and when it comes to how the SPD envisions its campaign.

Channelling Schröder

This Sunday, Germans will cast their votes for the European Parliament -- and political parties here see the poll as a test to see if their campaign messages are working. It could also be an indication as to how things will play out at the end of September in German general elections.

The reenactment will begin as soon as Steinmeier feels confident enough to do so. The bogeyman is set, but the party needs a trigger, an indication that it is time to go on the attack. For Schröder four years ago, the trigger was not a sudden one -- rather it developed slowly as the SPD's aggressive campaigning began to eat into the CDU's lead. Before long, Schröder began suggesting that his SPD could become the strongest party, a result that would have put him in the Chancellery at the head of a grand coalition instead of Merkel. He missed his goal by a single percentage point.

Steinmeier is hoping that a similar comeback might be in the cards this year. So far, Steinmeier's only possibility at becoming chancellor depends on his joining forces with the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP). But he also needs the FDP as an adversary in this campaign, with its leader Guido Westerwelle providing another potential bogeyman. Plus, Westerwelle is fond of treating the SPD like a street urchin with whom he would only join forces if absolutely necessary.

As a result, Steinmeier is looking to European elections with a mixture of anticipation and trepidation. If the SPD makes significant gains against the CDU, that is, if it emerges from the election only five or six percentage points behind instead of the 10 percentage points predicted by current polls, Steinmeier could begin his Schröder-esque march. He could then give voice to the SPD goal to become Germany's strongest party in September, with himself as the chancellor in another coalition with the CDU.

Where's Merkel?

Until then, he will continue to play with the "baron" and portray himself as a statesman who can hand out life vests to everyone. He has already done so in the Opel case, and he has set himself up for a repeat in the case of Arcandor, the struggling conglomerate which owns the Karstadt department store chain.

When Volker Kauder, CDU/CSU floor leader in Germany's parliament, expressed doubt as to whether Arcandor qualifies for government bailout funds, Steinmeier held up his life vests and said that the government is in fact looking into a bailout for Arcandor. That evening, he sat down and several other cabinet ministers and governors met with Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Chancellery to discuss Opel's future.

The SPD, in short, has had a good week when it comes to sharpening its social profile. And Merkel?

Last Wednesday, the chancellor turned up at Berlin's Humboldt University for what had been advertised as a "keynote speech," the auditorium was full. It was a perfect opportunity for Merkel to turn back the onrushing SPD.

Instead, Merkel stayed true to her political style, plodding sluggishly through the established dogma of Germany's European policy. Friendship with France is important, she said, the single EU market a gift for Germany. She spoke blandly about EU expansion and finally, instead of expressing opposition to EU membership for Turkey -- among the most prominent differences between the CDU and the SPD when it comes to Europe -- Merkel simply noted that greater integration within the EU must take priority over rapid expansion.

The chancellor's speech was responsible, statesmanlike -- and extremely tedious. Even her academic audience seemed to nod off at times. What little excitement the evening had to offer was generated not by Merkel, but by a few students who had slipped into the auditorium with whistles to protest the government's higher education policies. Europe, once again, was relegated to the sidelines.

Keeping the Losses in Check

Curiously enough, success is the CDU's biggest problem in the European elections. Five years ago, the party captured an astounding 44.5 percent of the vote, one of its best election outcomes in recent years. Schröder's ailing SPD countered with an historic low of just 21.5 percent. There is little chance that Merkel can repeat the success.

As such, team Merkel's priority is focused on keeping the inevitable losses in check. A decline to 38 percent of the vote would still be acceptable, they argue. Most important for the strategists at CDU headquarters is that their hopes for a two-party alliance between the CDU and the FDP are kept alive. Should it fade, voters will immediately begin questioning the CDU's campaign strategy -- something Merkel wants to avoid at all costs. The CDU and the CSU are nervous parties, only capable of relaxing when things are going well. After setbacks they often become edgy and disintegrate into internal conflict.