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An 'Impossible Marriage of Convenience' in Schleswig-Holstein'

Schleswig-Holstein's coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats was doomed because there was no personal chemistry between its leaders, write German newspapers. The case holds lessons for national politics -- grand coalitions favor the stronger partner, and alpha males don't thrive in them.

Peter Harry Carstensen, the conservative governor of Schleswig-Holstein, has engineered an early state election to profit from his party's strong standing in opinion polls. The coalition between his conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in the northern German state had never been a happy one because its two leaders are like chalk and cheese -- Carstensen, a farmer by trade, just couldn't get on with regional SPD leader Ralf Stegner, a Harvard-educated political scientist who likes to wear bow ties.

Carstensen is preparing to seal the break-up on Thursday with a no-confidence motion in the state assembly in the northern port city of Kiel, and just to emphasize that it's really over, he sacked the four SPD ministers from his cabinet on Monday.

Few doubt that his move is born of pure opportunism. The CDU is well ahead of the SPD in opinion polls and an early election on Sept. 27, the same day as the general election, will probably enable him to form a new government with his preferred partner, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Media commentators say the collapse of Schleswig-Holstein's grand coalition holds some important lessons which the conservative Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats should take to heart.

Three Lessons

Lesson 1: Governing coalitions between Germany's two biggest parties, known as grand coalitions, only work if there's personal chemistry between the leaders and if they learn to compromise and shelve their personal ambitions.

Lesson 2: Such coalitions tend to benefit the stronger partner and damage the weaker one.

Lesson 3: Alpha males or females don't do well in them, while quiet behind-the-scenes mediators thrive.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's right-left coalition, in power since 2005, is a prime example. Her Christian Democrats are well over 10 points ahead of the Social Democrats in opinion polls even though SPD ministers such as Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier are generally credited with having done a solid job in the cabinet.

But Merkel's the government leader, and she has consistently stayed out of domestic political fights with her quiet, cautious and almost aloof approach to politics.

Commentators see tough times ahead for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein and at the national level because years of coalitions have taken their toll on the venerable party.

Center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"In the long term, grand coalitions often degenerate to a permanent mediation committee; political leadership is scarcely possible in such an environment. In a grand coalition, the successful politicians are the ones who don't try to dominate and who aren't too loud -- people like Merkel."

"The SPD is experiencing both in national politics and in Schleswig-Holstein how bad it is to be the weaker partner in a grand coalition. The SPD's status as a people's party, defined as having electoral support of well over 30 percent, is eroding faster than the CDU's. From Bavaria to Schleswig-Holstein, from Hesse to Saxony, the SPD as a people's party is in crisis. The SPD is on the path to becoming a structural opposition party. There's no typical SPD clientele anymore, partly because the social groups the SPD used to dominate have changed, shifted and in part dissolved."

"The party has lost shape in the grand coalition; its candidate for chancellor embodies this coalition. The SPD is likely to emerge weakened from the Sept. 27 election. But if the conservatives don't emerge strong enough, there may well be only one possibility: another grand coalition."

Conservative Die Welt writes:

"The CDU wanted an early election because it's well placed in opinion polls. But nothing is decided. Winners can turn into losers overnight and vice versa."

Left-wing Die Tageszeitung writes:

"Carstensen is quite right to assume that conservative governors should avoid facing election in the coming years, because the bill for the financial crisis will be presented after the next general election. So far, the recession hasn't been real to many voters, but that's about to change and the number of people out of work will shoot up in the coming months. Many companies will go bankrupt because no orders are coming in. People on short-time work will transfer to the unemployment registers. This sorry prospect doesn't make for successful election campaigns. Carstensen has skilfully assured himself a comfortable victory -- but ruling the crisis-plagued state of Schleswig-Holstein will be decidedly uncomfortable for him."

Conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

"Stegner and Carstensen are two totally different characters. That's what made this marriage of convenience impossible. Schleswig-Holstein seems to confirm the rule for grand coalitions: If the people involved get on with each other, if they understand the need to put personal ambition on the backburner and that compromise doesn't have to mean defeat, then the CDU and SPD together can achieve a lot. Maybe that applies more to eastern than western Germany. The grand coalition has given up in Kiel but the two parties are working together smoothly in (the eastern German states of) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg."

Business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"The rivalry between two men, which is the true and childish reason for the failure of the coalition, mustn't become the dominating campaign issue. The debate should instead focus on the debacle over HSH Nordbank where it's unclear if the cash-strapped state will have to provide further aid."

David Crossland, 3.30 p.m. CET