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09/11/2009

German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democrats and her center-left Social Democrat challenger, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, will square off against each other on Sunday evening in the only televised debate between the two during the election campaign. It will be broadcast by four networks, and some 20 million Germans are expected to tune in. Political pundits are hoping the encounter will breathe life into what has been a spectacularly dull campaign so far.

In an interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, Richard Schütze, who has spent decades teaching politicians and business people how to get their message across with the right mix of rhetoric and body language, outlines his expectations for the debate and has some helpful tips for the two contenders.

He also gives his assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of Merkel, Steinmeier, and opposition leader Guido Westerwelle, the leader of the pro-business Free Democrat Party who may well end up as German foreign minister after the Sept. 27 election.

Opinion pollsters believe that televised debates had a key influence on the elections in 2002 and 2005. In 2002, then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder beat conservative challenger Edmund Stoiber by just 6,000 votes after giving a convincing performance against the Bavarian, a notoriously inept public speaker. And in 2005, pollsters say Schröder managed to mobilize more than 2 million hesitant SPD voters in the final days of the campaign largely because he out-talked Merkel in their TV debate. She still won the election, but had to share power with Schröder's party. Schütze doesn't expect Sunday's confrontation to have such a major impact on the outcome, though.

Who's Got the Better Chances of Winning the Debate?

"This election campaign is being conducted without passion, largely because the two main candidates, Angela Merkel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, cut rather pale figures. Both are cautious by nature -- modest and not vain -- so the TV debate is likely to be "tired."

Neither Angela Merkel nor Frank-Water Steinmeier are big polarizers, and they're not prone to polemics. Both are known to refrain from below-the-belt attacks. So they're both starting out equal in terms of the quality of their public appearance. But Angela Merkel has the decisive advantage in that she's the chancellor.

Unless Steinmeier manages to conjure something up out of his sleeve, he's unlikely to be able to knock the chancellor off her throne. Angela Merkel as the incumbent has the advantage of status.

In addition, Merkel has a number of plus points that no one can take away from her. Her eastern German background won her points in that region in the 2005 federal election. And she's Germany's first female leader. That will win points among women voters and it also makes it harder for her male rivals to attack her.

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• Part 1: 'Merkel Has Edge Over Steinmeier in Upcoming TV Debate'
• Part 2: The Contenders' Strengths and Weaknesses
• Part 3: 'Years of Reading Files' Has Affected Steinmeier's Rhetoric
• Part 4: Guido Westerwelle Is 'Consumed by Ambition'