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09/18/2009

Germany's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) does not have much to smile about these days after a plodding election campaign, but just over a week before Germans go to the polls, they have finally got a dose of good news. Following a lackluster few weeks, the SPD's candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier is gaining some support, shrinking Chancellor Angela Merkel's sizable lead.

A poll commissioned by the ARD television channel and released on Thursday evening showed Steinmeier bolstered by his better-than-expected performance in last Sunday's television debate with Merkel. His SPD party gained 3 points compared to a week earlier to reach 26 percent, while Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, continued to prevail with their support unchanged at 35 percent.

The latest survey gives the CDU/CSU and the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) enough support to form a new coalition government together. According to the poll, the conservatives and the FDP together have 49 percent while the SPD and its preferred coalition partner, the Greens, are on 36 percent.

The poll shows that the SPD, Greens and the left-wing Left Party would have 47 percent of total support between them if they formed an alliance. However the SPD have ruled out forming a coalition with the Left Party on the national level, given its ties to the former communist party of East Germany and the fact that its co-chair, Oskar Lafontaine, defected from the SPD.

And while Steinmeier's personal popularity continues to languish behind that of Merkel, the latest indications show he has gained some ground. Merkel's support declined slightly to 53 percent while Steinmeier's popularity has risen from 23 percent to 30 percent, narrowing the large gap between the two candidates ahead of the general election on Sept. 27.

Many voters remain undecided about how they will vote in just over a week's time and the outcome is far from set in stone, despite Merkel's buoyant support after four years of presiding over a "grand" coalition government with the Social Democrats.

Merkel will almost certainly win a second term as chancellor but it remains to be seen whether the FDP will replace the SPD as her coalition partner -- as the conservatives hope.

According to the latest survey, 48 percent of the sample group would be pleased to have a coalition formed by the conservatives and the FDP. Meanwhile, 45 percent would welcome a continuation of Germany's current grand coalition government.