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Merkel's Injured Allies

The Election Night Debacle in Bavaria

The conservative Christian Social Union has long played an outsized role on the German political stage. After historic lows in the Sunday general election, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel's southern allies could make her job more difficult.

It wasn't all that long ago that many in the southern German state of Bavaria saw Horst Seehofer as a kind of political savior. Long seen as an outsider in the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), Seehofer was installed at the head of the party in late 2008. His mission? To return the party to its halcyon days of absolute majorities in Bavaria and outsized political influence on the political stage in Berlin.

On Sunday, with Germans across the country casting their ballots in general elections, it quickly became clear that he failed. The CSU received 42.6 percent of the vote in Bavaria, the party's worst result in the state since 1949 and almost seven percentage points less than in 2005.

"It isn't just a defeat," commented former party head Edwin Huber. "It is a disaster, it is a catastrophe."

The outcome is also one that completes the image of a Germany taking leave of six decades of post-war voting patterns. The CSU, after all, isn't the only party to have seen historic lows as the results poured in on Sunday night. The Social Democrats posted a disastrous 23 percent result -- by far the lowest in the party's history -- and Merkel's CDU likewise limped to a post-war low.

But the election result in Bavaria accelerates what has been a rapid erosion of CSU influence in Berlin. Indeed, a CSU bull in the Berlin china shop has long been the price the CDU has had to pay for electoral success. The party's outsized idol Franz Josef Strauss wielded significant influence from the late 1950s to his death in 1988 both as a cabinet member and then as Bavarian governor. His political heir Edmund Stoiber carried on the tradition, running for chancellor in 2002 and guiding his party to a 49 percent result in Bavaria in the 2005 general elections -- following an astounding 60.7 percent outcome in 2003 state elections.

Seehofer, though, despite high hopes that he would lead the party out of the leadership crisis triggered by the October 2007 departure of Stoiber, has proven unable to revive the party. And now, once again, Merkel's Bavarian flank is in chaos.

"Today and tomorrow I will be faced with a number of difficult questions," Seehofer said on Sunday evening. But he has so far declined to resign and said he was determined to win back the trust of Bavarian voters.

Will Merkel Be Forced into Role of Peacemaker?

The new reality could prove to be an awkward one for Merkel as she embarks on a second term as Germany's chancellor. Her likely coalition, which will pair the CDU/CSU conservatives with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP), is by no means a new one -- Helmut Kohl led such an alliance for 16 years in the 1980s and 90s.

Historically, though, the FDP was the weakest of the three, merely providing the votes the conservatives needed to govern. This time around, though, the FDP is stronger than it has ever been -- and the CSU's Seehofer spent much of his campaign blasting away at the FDP. In short, Merkel may once again find herself in the role of a peacemaker within her own coalition.

The CSU, for its part, seems aware of the dangers that it may be marginalized. Should a leadership squabble erupt before coalition negotiations are complete, the party could lose even more influence. "There won't be a palace revolution," assured CSU politician Ilse Aigner, currently Merkel's minister of agriculture. "Of course we hoped for more, but we will take a close look at the results in due time."

On Sunday night, however, the most immediate product of the election night flop was on display. The CSU has long had a tradition of attacking its larger political sister on election night in an effort to turn strong majorities in Bavaria into influential cabinet seats in Berlin. This time around there was nothing but silence.

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