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10/22/2009

The German chancellor has two advantages that should give most leading politicians pause for thought. Angela Merkel is patient -- she knows how to wait. And currently, she has time on her side. She has more of an opportunity to think about what lies ahead than they do.

Only a few other politicians have the same options -- and usually these are working at an international level. And that is why Merkel, who does not succumb to emotion easily, enjoys the rough and tumble of foreign affairs so much. At that level she is sparring with partners of similar power. Often it is the ones she does not like very much personally that provide a real measure of her skills. For example, she enjoys a demanding skirmish with the likes of the KGB-schooled Vladimir Putin the way that other people enjoy an aged whiskey or a challenging chess game.

And, should they deserve it, she will talk about these opponents with great respect. It always sounds a little like the sorts of pronouncements a general might make when discussing the enemy on the field of battle.

Merkel Used, Then Discarded, Her Former Coalition Partners

More patience, more time: Merkel's former coalition partners -- the Social Democrats (SPD), who lost power after the German federal elections in late September -- could craft a requiem for their bygone relationship with the German chancellor out of that short chorus. Even as partners in the grand coalition -- the partnership between the SPD, Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union that governed Germany for the past four years -- Merkel managed to bring the SPD to its knees. They've gone from a proud party of the common people to the pitiful shadow of their former selves.

In his 1960 book, "Crowds and Power," Elias Canetti wrote about how the powerful few use the individuals beneath them, strengthening themselves on the most nourishing ingredients and leaving less nutritious remnants for the others. This is exactly what Merkel has done to opponents within her own party in the past. And it is exactly what she did to her first coalition partners, the SPD. She used the expertise of the most capable of the SPD's ministers, then shifted the blame for any of the more unappetizing policies, such as the rise in pension age to 67 years, back onto them. She stole good ideas like the cash-for-clunkers scheme from the SPD -- the now-expired program, whereby German car owners got a cash refund of €2,500 ($3,560) for trading in an old car for a modern, more environmentally friendly one -- and basically took so much from the SPD that hardly any of their supporters knew what they were voting for in the end.

New Coalition Partners Will Not Deliver On Promises

And now it seems that Merkel is planning to do exactly the same thing to the new in her second term. The Free Democrats (FDP) look increasingly unlikely to be able to deliver promises on one of the central tenets of their campaign manifesto: . They will have exactly the same problems with credibility that the SPD has had for four years. At the beginning of their time in the coalition government, the SPD had promised that there would be no rise in the German value-added-tax. Later they joined the chancellor's party in raising the value-added-tax by three percent to 19 percent. Recent elections have only made Merkel stronger. She delivered her party the coalition that they wanted. The complaints of the younger conservatives, questions about how much support the CDU had lost -- none of these appear to touch her. And the fact that she has come to power again at a time when the German political system seems to be becoming more and more fragmented is simply petty background information. Merkel's foes both inside her own party and among her new coalition partner party would be well advised to carefully examine the skeletons of those who have come before them, those that pave the way to the chancellor's chair.

Over the weekend two men decided to try and test what would happen if they stood up against Merkel, during the coalition talks between the CDU and the FDP that have been going on for some time now. Christian Wulff, governor of the state of Lower Saxony and member of the CDU, made fun of Guido Westerwelle's party's fetish for lower taxes. Westerwelle, the head of the FDP, reacted as predictably as Pavlov's dog.

Wulff's attack on Westerwelle and his taxes came across as light teasing. Beneath it though, lay an attack on the chancellor herself -- it was basically a criticism of the fact that Merkel had let the negotiations on this issue go on for so painfully long. And if the boss didn't nip this discussion with the FDP in the bud shortly, then he would do it himself -- that was Wulff's indirect swipe at Merkel. It could also be construed as something of a bid for power within the party.

But both of the men could end up as Merkel's handmaidens. To be frank, it's looking worse for Westerwelle. Still drunk on the election highs that come with leading his party to never before attained highs, Merkel is now going to make him look as small as she can. Still, Westerwelle will live and learn -- going into a coalition with Merkel is a dubious pleasure. She is like some praying mantis. Or a black widow spider. The sort of animal that attempts to kill their partner after they have done their natural duty.

Another Queen Elizabeth I?

In fact, black widow is a good description. First the SPD, now the FDP? Whatever happens, Merkel won't need to worry too much. She can afford a little bit of wear and tear on her coalition partners. Her own party is powerful and the Greens look as though they might also work out as . That's why the FDP is making efforts to appear larger than life. Those in the FDP who trumpet that they do not need to sign a coalition agreement are misguided. Rubbish. Of course, they have to. They need a coalition contract more than Merkel does -- and that is the realistic lay of the political landscape.

Sometimes it feels to the Germans as though Angela Merkel is the second coming of Britain's Queen Elizabeth I. Elizabeth was unpretentious, self aware and kept her emotions under control at all times -- unlike her rival for the throne, Mary, Queen of Scots, who ended up having her head lopped off for treason. Nobody could have guessed that Elizabeth I would take the crown, and keep it for 45 years; nobody could have guessed that a whole era would be named after her.

In an expression of admiration for Merkel, the US editorialist Jacob Heilbrunn prophesies that Germany will see Merkel in charge for a very long time. He says she may go down in history as one of the greatest German chancellors ever. Of course, you could only really write that if you live outside of Germany. And it is a fact that, had she not managed to bring about this current coalition with the FDP, then Merkel would only have been in power for the medium term. But now she has reached strategic heights that allow her a much longer term view of things.

Which is why those who would tangle with Merkel over lower taxes should remember the fate of Mary, Queen of Scots. Tax relief worth €35 billion, and not one cent less? One should not set one's sights so high, nor bite off more than one can chew. One might become shorter -- by a head. Now it seems Merkel has already started to trim her opponents down to size. It's just that they don't seem to have noticed quite yet.