A Paralyzing State Election: The Man Who Could Take Down Merkel

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Rüttgers has a very idiosyncratic notion of loyalty, as he recently demonstrated at the CDU convention in North Rhine-Westphalia, where he openly criticized the coalition government in Berlin. "The fact that the new federal government hasn't gotten off to a very successful start hasn't made things easier for us," he told delegates.

This sentence was not included in the original text of Rüttgers' speech, say officials at CDU state headquarters in Düsseldorf. But when the results of a poll released shortly before the convention showed that support for the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia had slipped to 36 percent, Rüttgers added the criticism of Berlin himself. He wanted to make it clear that the fault for the party's disappointing ratings lies not with him, but with Merkel and her cohorts.

Merkel and Rüttgers have long been wary of each other, partly because their success is based on the same principle. Both shifted to the left in a bid to make the CDU more attractive to new social groups, such as blue-collar workers and lower-income white-collar workers looking for protection from the icy winds of globalization.

When Rüttgers addressed the New Year's reception in Gelsenkirchen, he began by praising a Social Democrat. It was the fourth anniversary of the death of former German President Johannes Rau, he said, and quoted a famous remark of Rau's in which he called for "reconciliation instead of division." Rüttgers expressed his hope that people will once again get closer together and support each other more. He also criticized bankers who are greedy for profits. It all sounded rather reminiscent of SPD positions, and by the end of the speech, Rüttgers had come across as the most convincing Social Democratic politician the CDU has ever had.

Embracing All Germans

Merkel is more subtle in her own efforts to make the CDU more social democratic. Ronald Pofalla, the former secretary general of the CDU and the current head of the Chancellery, has quietly swept earlier efforts at reform under the carpet, and Merkel no longer feels like playing the role of the pro-market neo-liberal. That was something that became clear at her first public appearance on the evening of the parliamentary election in September 2009. The CDU officials at party headquarters in Berlin, overcome with joy at Merkel's reelection, were eager to hear the chancellor say something poisonous about the SPD. Instead, Merkel merely said that she intended to be a "chancellor for all Germans." It was a phrase that embraced everyone, including disappointed SPD voters.

Merkel's problem is that Rüttgers could one day be seen as being more consistent than the chancellor when it comes to following her own policies. There are few CDU politicians left who could truly pose a threat to the chancellor. Christian Wulff, the terribly nice governor of Lower Saxony who was once touted as a potential chancellor candidate, has said too many times that he lacks the will to take on the chancellorship. And now -- to his dismay -- even his own party believes him.

There is a lot at stake for Rüttgers. Recent polls show that the CDU and FDP no longer have a majority in North Rhine-Westphalia. If the SPD went into coalition with the Green Party and the left-wing Left Party -- which would be the first alliance of its kind on the state level in western Germany -- and managed to unseat him, it would probably spell the end of Rüttgers' career. But if Rüttgers succeeds in fashioning another CDU/FDP coalition in the leftist stronghold of North Rhine-Westphalia, he would emerge as the star of his party, having proved that he is just as effective as Merkel in attracting former SPD voters. Rüttgers' advantage over Merkel is that he is not under constant suspicion of betraying the fundamental principles of the CDU.

Home-Loving Image

Rüttgers' policies are no different from those of the chancellor. For instance, unlike many in his party, he is in favor of expanding day care for young children and supports all-day schools (most German schools still finish classes around lunchtime, making it difficult for mothers to work). But he exudes a kind of old-fashioned love of tradition, family and the home that has a calming effect on many CDU supporters, who are alarmed by Merkel's brash modernization of the party. Rüttgers likes to portray his house in Pulheim outside Cologne as a cozy abode where his family wears comfortable slippers and Angelika, his wife of 28 years, runs a tight but loving ship. His home-loving image gives him an aura of conservatism that appeals to the CDU party base and which has completely eluded the chancellor.

Merkel has to constantly explain why she, as a childless Protestant who was brought up in the former East Germany, is even a member of the CDU. No one would ever think of asking Rüttgers, a Catholic from the Rhineland, the same question, something that gives him an advantage. Merkel is currently unchallenged within the party, and yet many in the CDU believe that Rüttgers has not completely buried his dream of becoming chancellor. Fellow CDU members in North Rhine-Westphalia say that Rüttgers is convinced that Merkel will not run for chancellor again in 2013. It may be wishful thinking, but it also reflects his ambitions.

The relationship between the two politicians is not an easy one. During a recent visit by Merkel to North Rhine-Westphalia, it was clear just how little Rüttgers defers to the chancellor. When Merkel gave a speech to local business leaders, they were so enthusiastic that they gave her a standing ovation. But one member of the audience remained seated: Jürgen Rüttgers.

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• Part 1: The Man Who Could Take Down Merkel
• Part 2: Shifting to the Left