Al-Qaida Warnings: Threat of Terror Escalates in Germany

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When Harrach traveled to a training camp in the Pakistani-Afghan border area via Iran a short time later, he brought along a letter of recommendation from Nasir. In June 2007, the two men are believed to have met again in a camp in the Pakistani border province of Waziristan, where Harrach was apparently being trained in the use of weapons and explosives.

After a failed attempt to return to Germany, Nasir was arrested in Pakistan, where he confessed to authorities. There is a serious problem with his confession, however, in that it was apparently obtained through torture. He later told German officials that he had made up parts of the confession.

According to a June 27, 2007 report by the Pakistani intelligence agency ISI, Nasir had "speculated" that "something was planned for Germany." From today's perspective, the passages in the controversial ISI report relating to other possible al-Qaida aspirants in Germany seem particularly significant. The report states that Harrach asked Nasir to bring "a few of his colleagues" to Waziristan. Another German recruit in Nasir's care is believed to have asked to have four other individuals, who are not identified by name, smuggled out of the Bonn area.

Ties to Germany

To this day, German intelligence officials are not certain whether a plan to stage attacks in Germany was discussed in the training camp in Waziristan, although they have not ruled out the possibility. Even knowing how many al-Qaida members they are dealing with would be helpful to the German officials. "We are trying to illuminate an enormous, dark field with small flashlights," says a member of Germany's domestic intelligence service, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. "We have many people in our sights, but no one knows whether we have identified all the relevant individuals."

BKA President Jörg Ziercke is also unable to give a conclusive answer to the question of where the men who returned from the Pakistani training camps are in Germany today. His agency, which is currently conducting more than 200 terrorism-related investigations, has only a rudimentary grasp of the scope of the problem. German authorities don't even know the real names of some of these men, while others have only been identified in CIA reports.

According to an internal BKA situation report, the agency has information about "approximately 180 individuals with ties to Germany, who are believed to have received or intend to receive paramilitary training." About 80 have apparently returned to Germany, of which 15 are in custody.

Because of this lack of certainty, specialists at the intelligence agencies' Joint Internet Center (GIZ) in Berlin are feverishly analyzing the latest al-Qaida videos. Do they contain hidden clues about targets and possible attackers? And could they even contain orders for an al-Qaida team?

A Successful Campaign

Experts believe that Harrach, with his attempt to come across as a leader in the video, was mainly interested in establishing himself as an al-Qaida representative to be taken seriously. But why the warning in the first place? Why not stage an attack without providing advance notice? Apparently, the German jihadist is emulating his idol bin Laden, who has consistently claimed to have given due warning before attacks. After Sept. 11, 2001, bin Laden, citing interviews he had given to Western journalists, insisted that he had pointed out the risk of attack to the United States "again and again."

In his video, Harrach embraces another of the al-Qaida leader's arguments. In a democracy, he says, the electorate can be held responsible for its government's decisions, because the people, after all, have voted their government into office. Does this imply that a threat must inevitably lead to an attack? Apparently not. Bin Laden himself in 2006 announced further "imminent" attacks on the United States, attacks that never took place.

Would the absence of an attack in Germany constitute a loss of face for al-Qaida, as many experts believe? Not necessarily. Even after the expiration of Harrach's two-week warning period, no security agency would believe that the threat level had somehow decreased. The German Interior Ministry is already recommending that the additional security measures which were introduced following the Harrach video be continued for a longer period than just a few days after the election, as was originally planned.

From the terrorists' perspective, their campaign linked to Germany's 2009 national election is already a success. Suddenly everything seems possible.

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• Part 1: Threat of Terror Escalates in Germany
• Part 2: High Threat Level
• Part 3: 'Something Planned for Germany'