Feeling the Heat: Climate Change Has Become a Reality for Germany

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According to UBA, many crops traditionally cultivated in Germany, such as potatoes, rye, and oats, will largely disappear if -- as seems "very likely" -- the country sees temperatures rise a further 2 to 3 degree Celsius (3.5 to 7 degree Fahrenheit) by 2100 and summertime precipitation and soil fertility drop by 30 percent. The agency also suggests that soybean cultivation could become a possibility in southern Germany.

To prepare the country's agricultural sector for the "longer summer dry spells" now expected, the Julius Kühn Institute in Braunschweig, which researches cultivated plants, is testing drought resistant exotic species such as Sudan grass and sorghum for their suitability as energy crops.

The country's foresters are making similarly large-scale adjustments. Researchers in Eberswalde, near Berlin, are using Germany's first dry lab to test the root system of the common beech for its reaction to periods of drought. The UBA is advocating a massive "forest conversion" and it seems the change is unavoidable -- the timber industry's beloved monoculture spruce stands will have to give way to stable mixed forests capable of withstanding dry summers as well as the devastating winter storms that have been felling shallow-rooted spruces by the thousands since the early 1990s.

Pollen Allergies and Forest Fires

On top of all that, climate change also accelerates forest fire development. Even if Germany's average temperature rises by just 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) -- providing the country with "Tuscan conditions" -- climate researcher Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe in Potsdam expects that "the danger of forest fires will rise by almost a third by 2050" in the coniferous forests around Berlin.

It's long been clear that the greenhouse effect inflicts both direct and indirect damage on humans -- and not only in the Third World, where the aid organization Oxfam estimates by 2015 around 375 million people will suffer consequences such as epidemics, lack of drinking water and floods.

Extended growing seasons and the arrival of nonnative plants have changed the pollen calendar to the detriment of those with allergies. Ragweed, the dreaded warmth-loving plant with "enormous allergenic potential," is spreading "explosively" throughout Germany, according to Tobias Welte, a professor of medicine in Hanover.

Aggressive Ticks on the Move

In addition, the country is threatened by "climatically dependent stress situations," in the words of the UBA, incidents along the lines of the heat wave that claimed approximately 40,000 victims throughout Western Europe -- 7,000 of them in Germany alone -- in summer 2003. The German government calculates that in Freiburg, a southern German city already known for its comparatively mild climate, the number of days with temperatures reaching more than 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) will nearly double and the number of "tropical nights" with temperatures over 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) will almost triple by 2100.

Climate researchers warn that such heat levels increase the risk of infections, for example through cholera present in water or salmonella in food. Viruses thrive on warmth, as do their carriers, known to scientists as vectors. That includes not just ticks, but a range of animals such as mice, mites, and mosquitoes.

Epidemiologists were alarmed to discover that the Asian tiger mosquito, among others, had already reached Germany on its northward march. The insect was spotted for the first time along the Upper Rhine River. Two years ago, the same species infected 214 people in northern Italy with the Chikungunya virus, a tropical fever whose symptoms include severe joint pain. The UBA also warns that there is always "a danger of a recurrence of malaria infections."

Disease Risk

Two other dangerous relatives of the sheep tick have made it to Germany as well. The new arrivals are a Mediterranean variety of Hyalomma tick, which has red and yellow banded legs and can transmit a serious hemorrhagic fever, and the marsh tick, with its speckled pattern, which has now reached Lübeck in far northern Germany after years of migration from Italy and Austria.

This second bloodsucker measures up to two centimeters (0.8 inches) when fully fed, three times the size of the sheep tick. It carries canine babesiosis, a disease that can be fatal under some circumstances and infects dogs, among other animals. The tick can also pose a danger to humans as a carrier of typhus and other diseases.

This new arrival from the south differs from the more lethargic sheep tick in its pronouncedly aggressive behavior. The Robert-Koch-Institut, Germany's federal institute for disease control and prevention, cites foresters in the state of Brandenburg who observed the marsh tick "actively moving toward them within a radius of one meter (3.3 feet) in order to bite."

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• Part 1: Climate Change Has Become a Reality for Germany
• Part 2: Record Temperatures
• Part 3: Exotic Species For Germany?