By SPIEGEL Staff
Chancellor Angela Merkel faces what amounts to a vote of confidence in her leadership on Wednesday when a special parliamentary assembly will elect a new president. Her popularity has plunged since her re-election in September due to growing rifts in her center-right coalition, criticism of how she handled the euro crisis and anger at an austerity package many believe is socially unjust. She urgently needs the result to go her way or she could face the biggest crisis of her political career.
Merkel has nominated Christian Wulff, 51, a career politician from her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party who has been governor of the northern state of Lower Saxony for the last seven years. He is regarded as a safe but uninspiring choice for the largely ceremonial post as German head of state which became vacant after the surprise resignation in May of previous incumbent Horst Köhler.
Unfortunately for Merkel, the opposition center-left Social Democrats and Greens have nominated a more popular candidate who even members of Merkel's own coalition believe would make a better president than Wulff -- Joachim Gauck, 70, a former anti-communist human rights activist in East Germany, who was in charge of the administration of the Stasi secret police files after German reunification.
Merkel's CDU, along with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and their coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrat Party (FDP), have a majority of 21 in the parliamentary assembly of 1,244 delegates that will convene at noon, German time, to elect the president.
Crucial Vote for Merkel
The Federal Constitution states that delegates are free to vote for whomever they want, but delegates have come under intense pressure from their party chiefs to toe the line. The coalition parties know what is at stake -- if Merkel fails to get her candidate approved, her authority will be so badly damaged that her chancellorship could be in danger.
The Federal Assembly, a body which only convenes for presidential elections, has in fact been hijacked by party political interests. Wednesday's vote will not be a true election.
Merkel picked Wulff to pacify her restless, dissatisfied party. The opposition picked Gauck to damage Merkel because they knew he would be an attractive candidate for conservatives. After all, the charismatic pastor espouses traditional conservative views on the economy and immigration that his backers in the SPD and Greens find hard to swallow.
Several delegates from Merkel's coalition have broken ranks and said publicly that Gauck's biography is compelling -- his is a powerful story about the struggle for freedom and democracy. He has something to say to Germans, and he's a political outsider. No one is quite sure what Wulff's message would be after a lifetime spent in career politics during which he came up with few policy initiatives of note.
"This presidential election is riddled with party politics and the conservatives really aren't covering themselves in glory," says Eckhard Jesse, a political analyst at Chemnitz University. Another analyst, Heinrich Oberreuter from Passau University, says: "Presidential elections always were party political elections, but with this election the party political aspect is unusually prominent."
What gives parties the right to take the state and other public institutions hostage? Their dominance is particularly blatant this time. Christian Wulff is a product of this political system. Joachim Gauck has led a very different life.
No Free Choice
It would be intriguing to see what would happen if the assembly were really free to choose between these two candidates. But it isn't free because this election isn't about picking the best candidate. Instead, Wednesday's vote is about how long Angela Merkel will be able to remain chancellor. If her candidate fails, the rumblings in her coalition could escalate into outright unwillingness to carry on governing together.
But June 30 is more likely to be a day of cold political calculation. Even Angela Merkel's support for Wulff won't be wholehearted. It's an open secret in Berlin political circles that Wulff, behind a façade of friendly smiles, rarely misses an opportunity to badmouth the chancellor behind her back. Merkel knows that. So why did she nominate him?
Merkel, who spent the first 36 years of her life in communist East Germany before making a lateral move into politics, was never a typical CDU member. That gave her the freedom to reform the party, to make it more environmentally friendly and to nudge it to the left. In doing so, she sidelined a powerful bloc of western party barons and gradually bled it dry. One of her main detractors, Hesse Governor Roland Koch, a conservative hardliner, resigned last month.
Wulff is the last of those CDU strongmen left. In her fight to keep them at bay and modernize the party over the last decade, Merkel, the Protestant easterner, has used up a lot of credit in the western, Catholic-dominated CDU. At this point she doesn't have the confidence to test her party's tolerance any further, for example by nominating an independent candidate for the presidency, or Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen, who would have been an obvious choice as Germany's first female head of state.
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