By SPIEGEL Staff
The move to challenge an incumbent president who is standing for a second term is unprecedented in German politics and harbors risks for Angela Merkel's coalition of conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and center-left Social Democrats (SPD).
German presidents perform largely ceremonial and apolitical duties but they do have some powers, which include signing legislation and formally disolving parliament. Presidents are voted indirectly by members of both houses of the German parliament.
Schwan, 65 -- a member of the SPD and president of the Viadrina European University in Frankfurt an der Oder, a German city that shares its border with Poland -- stood for the presidency in 2004 as the SPD candidate, but lost to Köhler, who was backed by Merkel.
Her candidacy has opened up a fresh front between the two governing parties which have been too busy quarrelling over a range of issues this year to tackle concrete policies.
"I see a realistic chance of being elected and I want to appeal for votes from all parties, including the Left Party," Schwan, flanked by SPD chairman Kurt Beck, told a news conference on Monday.
Gesine Schwan has something for everyone -- Christian values for conservatives, pride in Social Democracy for the Social Democrats and criticism of the vagaries of capitalism for leftists.
Charting Unknown Territory
This is a historic point in German politics. For the first time in the history of the German Federal Republic, a president is going to have to wage an election campaign, and its outcome is open. Horst Köhler has no precedent to draw on. He has to invent the role of the campaigning president for Germany.
Schwan's candidacy also seals the division of the grand coalition into two camps. The CDU, its Bavarian Christian Social Union sister party and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) will fight for Köhler. The SPD, Left Party and Greens will probably fight for his challenger. That means the SPD will for the first time fight side-by-side with Oskar Lafontaine's Left Party in a national contest against the CDU and Chancellor Merkel. Maybe it's the harbinger of a future German government made up of a SPD-Left Party coalition. It means that more in-fighting in the current coalition is pre-programmed, leading to a greater standstill.
The motto now is all hands on deck to start mud-slinging. Hesse's CDU governor Roland Koch declared: "Yet again, large parts of the SPD are looking leftwards like they did in Hesse, and they don't realize this means the secret SPD leader is called Lafontaine, and that the SPD's leadership is dancing to his tune."
Schwan's candidacy also amounts to a failure of the grand coalition's inner circle of leadership. The heads of the CDU and SPD really wanted a second term for Köhler. But they weren't decisive enough and failed to prevent SPD members of parliament from outflanking them.
A Leadership Vaccuum
Politically, Germany seems rudderless these days. The government and the ruling parties' leaders are unable to get their projects through or no longer have any policies to agree on.
Of course it's not a bad thing for a democracy if there's an opposing candidate in an election. It means German politics is getting a little more exciting, but that has only happened because the SPD leadership was caught napping.
It all started with SPD leader Kurt Beck hesitating, as he so often does. He spent too long dithering about whether he wanted Köhler to be president or not. In the end he decided not to make a decision. The president himself should first say whether he wanted a second term, said Köhler. Behind closed doors he said he wouldn't rule out re-electing Horst Köhler with SPD votes. Last summer he declared, "I have nothing to criticize about Horst Köhler."
SPD parliamentary group leader Peter Struck shared that view. Why, said Beck and Struck, should the SPD withhold its support from such a popular president? Wouldn't that do the party more harm than good? They weren't totally opposed to the SPD fielding its own candidate. But they simply had doubts whether a challenger was warranted.
It was Easter and Schwan was in Mexico when she got a call from Edathy. He asked her whether she could imagine running again. Schwan said she would indeed, if she were called on. So Edathy started lobbying support for Schwan and found further allies on the SPD's left wing such as Niels Annen and Andrea Nahles who regard Köhler as a neoliberal who obscures his true beliefs with cloudy rhetoric.
Beck, Struck and others in the SPD's leadership didn't realize what was brewing, or they underestimated it. The Schwan fans went public two weeks ago. "Horst Köhler wasn't the SPD's candidate at the last election. I see no pressing reason why he should be our candidate in 2009," Edathy told SPIEGEL. Women in the party also started declaring their support for Schwan. The SPD's leadership met on May 17 and quarrelled about whether Schwan should enter the race. Deputy leader Peer Steinbrück, Germany's finance minister, warned about the dangers of backing Schwan, saying: "How will we be able to campaign for the European and general elections if Gesine Schwan loses?" Struck added that the risk of a defeat for Schwan was extremely high as it was uncertain how many votes she would get.
SPD Taking Risks With Nomination
On Monday, the leadership finally decided to nominate Schwan as the SPD's candidate. Her supporters say a victory would give the SPD a massive boost ahead of next year's elections and would be a victory over the conservatives and the FDP. Even her nomination could give the SPD much-needed impetus, they say.
But there are risks too. How will voters react if the SPD votes a popular president out of office? What happens if Schwan is defeated? Could that hurt the SPD's chances in the general election? What will voters think if the SPD join forces with the Left Party to elect Schwan?
Ever since Beck's U-turn earlier this year when he suddenly dropped his opposition to the SPD making regional alliances with the Left Party in western Germany he and the SPD have been under suspicion of planning to form a national government with the help of the Left Party after the 2009 election. If Schwan wins the election, the SPD will find it even harder to persuade voters that it has no intention of forming a coalition with a political bloc that includes the successor party to East Germany's communists.
Schwan on Monday criticized the Left Party, saying it was failing to provide answers to the issues of globalization, and that she believed the SPD would be "tripping itself up" if it entered a coalition with the party in its current form.
The to-ing and fro-ing over her nomination has reaffirmed questions about Beck's leadership. But it hasn't helped his main rival in the SPD, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, either. Beck's rapid loss of power and standing in the party should boost Steinmeier's chances of getting nominated instead of Beck as the SPD's candidate for the chancellorship in 2009. But Steinmeier's prospects also seem to be waning. Were Schwan to get elected with the help of Left Party votes, Steinmeier's solemn pledge not to enter any national alliance with the Left Party would ring hollow.
Gesine Schwan's election campaign has now started. When former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder picked her to stand against Köhler in 2004, she was delighted. She isn't known for modesty. There are few things she enjoyed as much as spending 10 weeks in the limelight campaigning, and she appears to be looking forward to her second candidacy.
Her eyes gleamed with genuine pleasure on Monday at the prospect of spending a whole year debating politics in public. "I want to help restore public faith in the political process by explaining it to people," she said.
The persistence with which she has put herself forward as the ideal candidate for the presidency suggests she has a well-developed ego. Her self-confidence has raised eyebrows among some in the SPD, but it has also won her a lot of respect.
She smiles a lot, seeks physical contact at public meetings, embracing people or touching their arms. "Her human proximity to people big and small, old and young, rich or poor is remarkable," said Frankfurt an der Oder Mayor Martin Patzelt, a conservative.
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