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Ethnic Strife

Divisions Deepen in Iraq

Iraq's parliament passed a new federalism law last week, paving the way for Shiites to form a powerful, self-ruling province in the south of the country. If the law holds, critics worry the war-torn country could see a spike in intra-ethnic violence.

Last Wednesday, Iraq started off on a constitutional path that could ultimately lead to its ethnic and religious division. Iraq's parliament passed a sweeping expansion to the federalism paragraphs in its constitution -- changes that make it possible for the country's 18 provinces to form regional alliances. If one-third of the members of parliament from a province or 10 percent of its residents vote for such an alliance, then the province is required to hold a referendum on the issue.

The law is a "factor of unity against the enemies of Iraq, against Baathists and Saddamists, criminals and radicals," Shiite leader Abd al-Asis al-Hakim said, defending the parliament's controversial decision.

The law won't go into effect until April 2008, but the fact that it passed already makes two things clear: It opens the door for provinces in southern Iraq to prepare for the creation of a Shiite "super region," and it means that, in all probability, the multiethnic city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq will become part of the Kurdish autonomous zone.

Nevertheless, the vote -- which was boycotted by 135 of 275 members of parliament -- portends to be a pitfall: Most Sunnis and many Shiites reject calls for Iraq to be divided by ethnic groups. They include the political bloc of radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr as well as members of other, more secular, groups. Their concern? Although the provinces of Basra, Dhi Qar and Maysan are almost exclusively inhabited by Shiites, the population gets a lot less homogenous in the north. Baghdad, the most populated province, is ethnically mixed and also especially vulnerable to disputes between different Muslim confessions. In addition, dividing the country would be disproportionately advantageous to the Kurd and Shiites, who comprise the majority in provinces where Iraq's oil wealth is concentrated.

Just how powerful Iraq's centrifical forces have become, is illustrated by draft legislation delivered by the governor of the province of the province of Diyala to the prime minister. His province disposes of a strong agricultural sector and has sufficient oil and water supplies to survive without ever having to rely on any regional alliances. But Diyala is also one of Iraqi provinces most plagued by violence. It was here in June that terrorist leader Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi was killed.

jsg/spiegel