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08/31/2009

Cell 28, block 3, Hadarim Prison, 30 kilometers (19 miles) northeast of Tel Aviv: This is where one of the two men who could play an important role in the Middle East in the coming months is currently incarcerated. The other man sits in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington.

In 2004, an Israeli court sentenced Marwan Barghouti, 50, to life in prison for his role in the planning of several murders. At the time, Barghouti called it a "show trial" and insisted that it would not deter him from sticking to his position. Even behind bars, the charismatic Palestinian leader stressed the need to "fight the occupying power." At the same time, however, he argued the case for peaceful coexistence with the Israelis and advocated a two-state solution. Three weeks ago, at the convention in Bethlehem of Fatah, which governs the West Bank, the prisoner received the third-largest number of votes for a spot on the group's central committee.

There had been persistent rumors that the Israelis wanted to release Barghouti from prison, hoping to pave the way for him to become a potential "Palestinian Nelson Mandela." But when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist right-wing government came into power five months ago, the chances of that experiment coming to fruition seemed reduced to almost nothing. But now Israel's hawkish premier has the opportunity to release the man from cell 28 without losing face among his supporters. In exchange for turning over Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier abducted three years ago, radical Islamist Hamas is demanding the release of 450 Palestinians it has listed by name.

Somewhat surprisingly, Barghouti is on the list. The Fatah leader has been a vocal critic of what he calls Hamas radicals' "coup" in the Gaza Strip, and he has also called for reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, which have clashed violently in the past. If Palestinian unification is even conceivable, it will require Barghouti's participation. With German mediation, the Shalit deal, long in the making and hampered several times by various details, could be completed successfully in the coming weeks.

Watching from Washington

Officials in Washington are also keeping a close eye on -- and apparently taking a favorable view of -- the potential prisoner exchange deal and the prospect of changing the face of the Middle East. US President Barack Obama is pursuing ambitious goals in the Middle East, and the comprehensive peace plan he has been developing is now taking shape. Obama is tying together the region's two main problems, which are widely viewed as intractable: the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians and the threat of Iran becoming a nuclear power. At the same time, he is applying tremendous pressure to all sides to achieve simultaneous progress on both fronts, progress that could lead to an overall solution.

But isn't it naïve for the US president to hold out the prospect of a peace treaty in two years, in a region where radical Islamists remain determined to destroy Israel and radical Zionists create new provocations every day by expanding the Jewish settlements in the occupied territories? Can the Iranian leadership still be dissuaded from pursuing its nuclear ambitions? "The explicit linkage is, in any case, a dangerous gambit," concludes the British daily The Guardian.

The way Obama's new approach works was in evidence during the Israeli premier's trip to Europe last week. Although Obama was not physically present, his presence was nonetheless felt, as were his demands. On the one hand, he wants the Israelis to halt settlement construction in the occupied territories and negotiate with the Fatah leadership. On the other hand, Obama's plans call for tougher sanctions on the Iranians, beginning this autumn, if they do not accept Washington's offer of comprehensive nuclear talks by the end of September. Netanyahu was intent on preventing the parallel treatment of these two sets of demands -- and, above all, the establishment of a link between the two subjects -- but failed to do so during his European trip.

When the Israeli prime minister stood next to his British counterpart, Gordon Brown, at No. 10 Downing Street on Tuesday, there was a palpable distance between the two men. The construction of Jewish settlements, Brown said, is an " obstacle" and must be stopped. At the same time, Brown threatened Tehran with tougher sanctions. In Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkozy seconded Brown's demands and, in addition to agreeing with his call for a tougher approach, fundamentally questioned Tehran's reliability and willingness to compromise. "These are the same leaders, in Iran, who tell us that the nuclear program is peaceful and that the elections were honest. Frankly, who believes them?"

On Wednesday, also in London, Netanyahu met with Obama's special envoy to the Middle East. For weeks, George Mitchell has been repeating Washington's call for a "complete halt to settlements" like a mantra. Behind the scenes, there was apparently even talk of Washington suspending its deliveries of military equipment and its billions in aid if Israel refused to cooperate.

Western Action Bears Fruit

Probably the biggest disappointment for Netanyahu came on Wednesday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert had called Israel's "best friend in Europe," and who has taken an extremely mild stance toward Israel's occupation policy in the past, joined the chorus of critics when she said unambiguously that a halt to settlement construction was a "key condition" of comprehensive peace, and that "substantial changes" on the part of the Israelis were needed on this issue. "Time is the essence," the chancellor cautioned her guest, while at the same time stressing the need to increase pressure on Tehran. But Netanyahu did not address Merkel's demands in Berlin, and instead limited himself to emphasizing Israel's good relations with Germany.

The West's concerted action seems to be bearing fruit. The stalemate, which is the status quo in the Middle East, is beginning to change. Apparently all it takes is a lot of pressure for politicians on all sides to react.

In May Khaled Mashaal, Hamas' Damascus-based political leader who is known for his uncompromising demands, surprisingly declared that his "goal" was the establishment of a Palestinian nation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This cautious overture is unlikely to be enough to convince the West to enter into talks with Hamas. However, if Mashaal meant what he said, it would amount to a de facto recognition of the existence of Israel. Even Fatah, with which both the West and Israel are negotiating, has not gone much further.

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• Part 1: A Forced Breakthrough in the Middle East
• Part 2: Could Ultra-Conservatives Derail Peace Talk Plan?