It's an idyllic scene that unfolds in the residential district of Tanasin in the Thai capital city of Bangkok. A group of roughly 1,000 suburb denizens gather together in the scorching, late afternoon, holding up brochures to shield their faces from the still blazing sun. Across the street, others play golf while vendors sell tamarinds and durian fruit.

The only clue to the purpose of the gathering is the printed message on the front of the impromptu sun shields. "List 9" it says -- the list number for the Thai-Rak-Thai Party ("Thais love Thais"). The group has collected to hear a campaign speech; they are waiting patiently for the arrival of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

When he finally arrives, a half hour late, the speech he gives is fairly typical for a politician on the stump. Wearing a blue windbreaker, designer jeans and a garland of yellow flowers around his neck, his talk is witty and full of promises as he eyes possible re-election in the Feb. 6 vote. In explaining why Thais should vote for him, Thaksin says "as long as Thais live in poverty, I must keep going." But what he doesn't say is just as important.

The political benefits of disaster

He doesn't, for example, mention the Dec. 26 tsunami disaster. But like German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who managed to turn his administration's energetic and financially generous assistance to victims of Germany's catastrophic floods in 2002 into a means of recruiting new voters for his Social Democratic Party (SPD), or like United States President George W. Bush's spike in support following the Florida hurricanes in the late summer of 2004, Thaksin also stands to benefit from his country's recent catastrophe. Shortly after the killer wave pulled thousands of Thais and foreign vacationers to their deaths just after Christmas, Thaksin arrived at the scene to direct rescue efforts and promise generous financial assistance for reconstruction.

"He responded very quickly," says Surichai Wun'gaeo, a professor of political science at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, "and he's likely to gain new supporters, especially in southern Thailand."

It is in precisely this region where, until now, Thaksin has been politically weak; it has long been a stronghold of Thailand's biggest opposition force, the Democratic Party. In the past 12 months, the region, home to Thailand's Muslim minority, has witnessed the deaths of at least 550 people in attacks by presumed separatists and counterattacks by Thai security forces.

"Until now, Thaksin has not managed to capture the hearts and minds of the local population there. He could be more successful now," says Surichai, basing his prediction on the wave of goodwill enjoyed by the prime minister in the wake of the tsunami.

It could mean that Thailand's 61.6 million people will soon see one of Southeast Asia's most enigmatic politicians re-elected as their head of state. There are many parallels between the Thai prime minister and Schroeder, but more apt would be a comparison between Thaksin and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Like Berlusconi, Thaksin is a media mogul worth billions, is notorious for attempting to intimidate critical journalists and has also managed to escape prosecution on charges of corruption. And just like his counterpart in Rome, he likes to mix business and politics.

Quick climb to the top

Thaksin's career in Thai politics has been meteoric. After marrying the daughter of a high-ranking police official, Thaksin, a well-educated former lieutenant colonel in the Thai military, was awarded a contract in the 1980s to outfit the police force and other government agencies with IBM computers. The IBM deal became the cornerstone of what has developed into a commercial empire that now includes telecommunications businesses, a television station, real estate holdings and even an airline.

Thaksin, the great-grandson of Chinese immigrants, has also broken with tradition. In the past, wealthy businessmen in Thailand had preferred to use middlemen to exercise control. Thaksin, however, opted to assume power directly, probably, as critics believe, to protect the interests of his family business. He founded the Thai-Rak-Thai Party and established a network of contacts to high-ranking police and military officials.

His political recipe is a mixture of fiery nationalism and populism. His campaign promises include "an education for every child" and "jobs for everyone." In an effort to do away with Thailand's reputation as the world's bordello, his administration has enacted legislation prohibiting Bangkok's bar girls from dancing in the nude and enforcing a 1 a.m. curfew for nightclubs.

His administration has also given low-interest loans to small businesses and poor farmers, and has forgiven the debts of entire villages. Perhaps his biggest achievement, and a powerful trump card in the next election, is that most Thais now pay only 30 Baht (about 78 US cents) for hospital treatment.

Just how "Thaksinomics" can be funded in the long term remains unclear. But one thing is certain: the economy is flourishing. Companies are investing again and exports are on the rise. And business is booming for his family's company, the Shin Corp.

The economic upswing has its flip side. Thaksin's first term has been marked by violence. The government's campaign against Thailand's drug mafia claimed at least 2,275 lives within a few months. Many of the dead were only minor dealers or even innocent civilians. Opponents claim that many were sentenced to death without even the benefit of a trial or sentence.

The organization Human Rights Watch believes that the regime of Thailand's dashing prime minister has been characterized by "persistent erosion of respect for human rights." In a country that has experienced a laborious road to democracy, civil rights leaders warn that Thaksin is attempting to transform "Thailand into a one-party state."

A country is like a corporation

In response to such criticism, Thaksin admits that he does not consider democracy to be the "ultimate goal" for Thailand. If he had his way, he would govern Thailand like a corporation. One of his mottos is that "a country is like a business."

It's a sentiment clearly in evidence in Thailand, a country where money rules. Although Thaksin claims that his objective is to energetically stamp out corruption, there is plenty of evidence to the contrary in this election campaign. Villagers in Thailand's poor northern provinces say representatives of political parties, including Thaksin's Thai-Rak-Thai Party, have met with local mayors under the cover of darkness to buy votes.

Because one of the byproducts of these nightly visits is that they frighten sleeping dogs, people in the Thai countryside like to refer to the campaign as the "time of the barking dogs."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan