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'Time for a Revolution'

Ways to Avoid a Climate Catastrophe

By Philip Bethge and Christian Wüst

Part 2: Wasting Resources

For decades, the inhabitants of the Western world have dealt carelessly and wastefully with resources. A change in their conduct is nowhere in sight. And why should there be? Despite higher prices, energy still has the aura of inexhaustibility. Electricity comes from the wall socket and gas from the fuel pump. In the end, the 20th century could go down in history books as a golden age, that age when an abundance of energy was available and people enjoyed historically unparalleled prosperity, at least in industrial nations. In contrast, the beginning of the 21st century will be remembered as an epoch of new directions. If the energy shift fails, the decline of prosperity will be almost inevitable.

Hardliners, moderates and a "soft path"

Three camps face off against each other in the conflict over the future: hardliners who want to produce energy as before from oil, gas and uranium, moderates who seek to keep all options open and those who advocate the "soft path" of turning away from fossil-nuclear concepts and envisioning a future in renewable energies and greater energy efficiency.

So far only a few states characterized by high development and low population density have claimed to be uncompromisingly green. Thanks to the skillful utilization of wood, Sweden, a country rich in forests, has set a goal of managing completely without petroleum by 2020.

In contrast, the most distinguished representative of fossil fuel hardliners is Russia, not least of which because of its enormous resource wealth. Russia's oil production is comparable to that of Saudi Arabia and its natural gas reserves are by far the earth's largest. Having such large reserves of the cleanest and most climate-friendly of all fossil fuels gives the Kremlin a position of power the authoritarian Putin regime is exploiting ever more self-confidently. Billions flow into the pipeline infrastructure, but no one has any interest in regenerative eco-technology.

Most European countries take the middle road of coexistence between fossil and renewable energy sources. But hardly anything will have more far-reaching importance for the future of the planet than the question of whether the growing giant China will also soon join this camp.

Sheer necessity alone could force China to choose a sustainable energy mix. Explosive industrialization has triggered a thirst for energy that, if quenched solely with conventional means, can only lead to acute environmental catastrophes. Right now, China primarily uses coal to fuel its growth. The capacity of new coal power plants that went online in 2006 exceeds the entire capacity of Great Britain. Further development at the same rate would deal a devastating blow against the climate and the air we breathe. Soot from large Chinese power plants is already measurable over California and Europe.

Although a signatory of the Kyoto protocol, China does not feel committed to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions set forth in that agreement. Still, even without concern about the world climate, the pressure of suffering caused by domestic environmental debacles -- 16 of the world's 20 dirtiest cities are in China -- could soon accelerate a change in the Beijing government's strategy. The Chinese expect 10 percent of their electricity to come from renewable sources of energy in a few years. Deutsche Bank estimates that more than $150 billion could flow into this development.

By taking this approach, China would be following a global development that has already gained vast popularity. Renewable energy currently makes up 18 percent of worldwide electricity production, which is more than nuclear power. In 2003, worldwide investments in the renewable energy sector exceeded the $20 billion mark. In several years time, the market could reach an annual sales volume of $85 billion.

Germany: not really a role model

What about Germany? Germany is a world leader in investing in renewable energy. No country generates as much electricity from wind as Germany. Nearly every fifth wind turbine worldwide comes from a German factory. Repower, a Hamburg wind power company, has become a hot potential takeover target for foreign investors, including the Indian firm Suzlon and the French nuclear conglomerate Areva.

Experts like American economist Adam Posen believe Germany could play an important role "through innovations and the power of example" in leading the world community into a new climate-sparing energy age.

The problem is that Germans' actions have been far from exemplary. EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas complains that Germany is in no way a trailblazer when it comes to climate policy, and wants the Germans to "back up their words with action."

Dimas is right. Despite the renewal energy law and triple glazing in practically every room of every house, the German energy transformation has long neglected something essential: optimization of efficiency. The individual German still consumes far too much energy.

Every German's rush to prosperity ruins the biosphere to an extent that makes the country's reputation as the world's environmental frontrunner seem absurd. Every person holding a driver's license in Germany uses up almost 1,000 liters of gasoline per year. Energy-saving compact flourescent light bulbs and three-liter cars are among the most berated excesses of the modern age in Germany. And Chancellor Angela Merkel only seems to be interested in talking about change. Speed limits on the German autobahn? Not with Merkel. A uniform CO2 limit for new cars as now demanded by Brussels? Defused because of pressure from a chancellor who bowed under the pressure of Germany's powerful carmaker lobby.

Wasteful Western lifestyles

This points to a fundamental dilemma of the energy debate. No form of energy will correct the temperature curve of the planet downward without consumers rethinking their way of life in industrial nations. The world groans under the consequences of a wasteful Western lifestyle that has long threatened to become the global model.

"Billions of people who do not have access to electricity today all want to live in the same civilized way that we do," says Fritz Wahrenholt, an expert on the environment and energy and the head of Repower. Driving a Porsche, having a heated swimming pool in the backyard and regularly flying to the Maldives are the insignia of the Western brand of capitalism. Whether the world's citizens are ready to limit themselves only because scientists conjure a climate apocalypse in the near future is one of the greatest uncertainties in the global energy calculation.

So how does one go about introducing the long-overdue change of behavior in energy consumption? "Is a crisis necessary to bring people to a new path or can they react to a gradual growth in knowledge?" Ralph Cicerone, president of the US National Academy of Sciences, asked after the unveiling of new IPCC report.

The time to act is now

We do not have much time -- especially since every decision to build a new large-scale power plant ties up new billions in capital for 30 to 60 years, the plants' average life expectancy. The issue, on the one hand, will revolve around how to convert the present energy structure with its giant power plants and long-distance power lines to a sustainable, efficient and decentralized supply.

On the other hand, the experts agree that the world needs a new consciousness about how much energy is wasted and evaporates unused on a daily basis. "Energy saving through efficient use is the fastest and most economical solution for nearly all energy-related problems," says Wuppertal researcher Hennicke. With existing technologies, the primary energy requirement in Germany could be reduced up to 40 percent "even with increased economic output," he says.

"Climate change also presents an opportunity," says Hennicke, who sees Germany as an "engine of innovation." New technologies for higher efficiency and for environmentally friendly electricity production could greatly reduce the share of oil, coal and gas in the energy mix by the middle of the century.

A third savings, a third renewable and a third fossil energy is Hennicke's general rule for the "soft path" into the future. The brave new energy world may be the last chance for us not to be forced to walk backwards down the path to apehood.

"We can manage everything with energy," says the British environmental expert Euan Nisbet. “Without energy, we are just big chimpanzees.”