Other known al-Qaida cadres are beginning to resurface. They act as liaisons in Iran, travel frequently back and forth between Iraq and Pakistan to exchange information or regularly cross the border into Afghanistan.
No one assumes that al-Qaida is as well organized today as it was before 9/11, when there were paychecks, memos from bin Laden and regulated vacation periods. Even the new camps are not comparable to the terrorist schools of days gone by. But there is a clear trend nonetheless.
There are too many uncontrolled areas for al-Qaida to be driven completely out of the region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The organization is relatively safe there, and Western intelligence services believe that some of its members are busy developing new international attack scenarios.
Berlin-based terrorism expert Guido Steinberg of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) also recognizes a "clear trend toward reorganization." But he does point out that it is not clear how close the ties between certain named individuals and al-Qaida are.
Steinberg does not see a new al-Qaida headquarters developing. "If there is reorganization, it will take a new form," he believes. In his view, the most recent developments can best be described as a "Pakistanization of al-Qaida." Steinberg notes that the importance of Pakistani militant groups has grown tremendously in recent years. For example, the July 7, 2005 London subway and bus bombings and the prevented attacks of July 21, 2005 were traced back to Pakistan. "There is a Pakistani terror infrastructure and there are Pakistani volunteers," says Steinberg. "What is new is that al-Qaida is taking advantage of this."
The London connection does appear to be turning into an important one for Islamist terrorism. Britons, the New York Times reports, are increasingly being accepted into Pakistani military camps. US intelligence czar Mike McConnell recently conceded that attacks against the West are most likely being planned in Pakistan.
Winning by not losing
Steinberg believes nonetheless that the history of the revival of al-Qaida in Pakistan is not as clear-cut as some believe. But his argument is no less disconcerting.
He points out that Algerian jihadists, for example, recently changed the name of their organization to "Al-Qaida in the Islamic West" -- another indication that bin Laden's network is still viable. Steinberg believes that al-Qaida attacks on Europe could just as easily be planned in North Africa as they are in Pakistan.
According to reports in the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, French intelligence agencies share the same concerns, and they are worried that jihadists in Algeria or Morocco could be planning to use the presidential election slated for May to stage a spectacular attack modeled after the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which also took place shortly before an election and, as predicted by al-Qaida strategists, led to a change in government and Spain's withdrawal from Iraq. Like Germany, France has troops stationed in Afghanistan. Wednesday's bomb attack in Algiers is further proof of al-Qaida's resurgence in North Africa.
In a recent interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, American terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman, in light of developments that are becoming increasingly clear, said: "Al-Qaida is more dangerous than it was on 9/11."
But Berlin expert Steinberg favors a more sober way of looking at the situation, although even that isn't exactly reassuring. "Al-Qaida," says Steinberg, "has demonstrated that it cannot simply be extinguished. That in itself is a triumph -- because terrorists only need not to lose in order to win."
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