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The General and the Jihadists

Is Musharraf Losing his Grip on Pakistan?

By Rüdiger Falksohn

Koran students at the so-called Red Mosque in Islamabad had provoked the Pakistani government for months, but President Musharraf chose to delay intervention. His decision to bring in the army was intended as a show of force and as a reminder to the West that despite his dwindling authority, there is no alternative to his leadership.

A light-colored, airy and flowing Pakistani garment may be reasonably comfortable when the temperature climbs to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in the shade. But under black material, layered and wrapped to ensure that nothing but a slit remains for the eyes, the same temperatures become nearly unbearable. Someone wearing this sort of outfit, in this heat, topped with a rubber-coated gas mask, must have a pretty good reason -- a reason the Koran students at Islamabad's Red Mosque believe they have.

They have been involved in a heated dispute with the Pakistani authorities for more than a week now, a dispute that has led to the heaviest fighting in the history of the country's capital. The young people, armed with bamboo sticks, guns and Molotov cocktails, initiated the conflict by setting fire to the Environment Ministry and a large number of cars on Tuesday, sending clouds of dark, inky smoke into the monsoon sky. The government, surprisingly tolerant until then, finally decided to take action against the Koran students.

Police and paramilitary forces brought in heavy ammunition and tear gas. The religious students, most of them younger than 25, put on gas masks, barricaded themselves behind sandbags and returned fire, encouraged and spurred on by slogans booming from the loudspeakers of the nearby minaret. The rebellious students, not exactly models of devout placidness, are heavily armed with automatic pistols they took from a group of policemen in a recent attack -- Kalashnikovs, other guns and hand grenades. So far, 24 people have already been killed and 200 wounded after getting caught in the crossfire.

The unrest originated at the Red Mosque ("Lal Masjid") with its two Koran schools, located in a middle-class section of Islamabad. The neighborhood, known simply as G-6, is one of uninspired apartment buildings, but it also borders on an extensive system of parks, a place where the glitter of consumerism is a thorn in the eye of the mosque's Islamist students. The park-like district is also where the president has his office.

The students have been staging their opposition to the government of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, 63, practically on his doorstep. In his view of himself as a worldly statesman, Musharraf apparently was at first loath to take the students seriously. Despite the fact that he is no longer being courted as assiduously in Washington as he was shortly after Sept. 11, 2001, Musharraf is still compensated handsomely in return for his decidedly pro-Western stance. Relations with Beijing are extremely close, as the two countries jointly develop giant infrastructure projects. Pakistan's relationship with India, its archenemy and larger rival on the subcontinent, fluctuates between periods of rising and falling tensions.

The general has come under massive criticism for his lackluster efforts to pursue the Taliban in the border regions with Afghanistan, a reticence that stems partly from self-interest and a concern that the group could also turn against him. Musharraf has survived several assassination attempts, including the most recent, when his official aircraft came under fire after taking off from the airport in the northern city of Rawalpindi.

'The American Dog'

Though viewed as a modernizer, Musharraf is far from a democrat. When he came to power in 1999 after a military coup, he forced two former prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, into exile. He is about as powerful as a president can be in Pakistan, which isn't necessarily saying much. The students barricaded in front of the Red Mosque called him an "American dog," an epithet that hadn't been used for the first time.

Musharraf opposes radical clerics and has largely withdrawn any previous protection for Muslim rebels penetrating into India from the Pakistani section of the disputed Kashmir region. This has made him unpopular among nationalists, who see him as a traitor to his country. His influence is also limited in provinces like Baluchistan, where powerful tribal leaders operate largely unfettered by government forces, fighting to maximize their profits from the region's rich natural resources.

But the resistance Musharraf is encountering in Islamabad is new and especially alarming. The conflict began four months ago when he ordered the dismissal of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, causing nationwide unrest. Chaudhry had become a symbol of opposition to the president. Since then he has traveled from province to province, delivering his message to the masses. A brilliant speaker, Chaudhry manages to transform each of his appearances into a tribunal against the country's leader.

As chief justice of the country's supreme court, the portly, moustache-wearing Chaudhry posed a threat to the trim Musharraf's prospects of being elected for another term in this fall's elections. Chaudhry, as an independent chief justice, could have torpedoed the president's plans to have the old parliament rubber-stamp his reelection. To prevent this from happening, Musharraf accused Chaudhry of abusing his position and of nepotism, and dismissed him on March 9. Chaudhry's fellow justices took to the streets in protest, and tens of thousands of citizens across the country followed suit.

Violent Opposition to Musharraf

Chaudhry seems to relish fashioning himself as a star witness against the president. His appearances routinely turn into emotionally charged spectacles, and his message is always the same: Musharraf's time has run out. His sentiments are echoed in the lyrics to a popular song that is played at Chaudhry's appearances: "Hey man, take off your uniform, your job is done," to which the crowd routinely responds: "Go home, Musharraf!"

The opposition to Musharraf has also turned violent. In mid-May, 41 bodies were counted in the streets of Karachi alone in street fighting that erupted after it was announced that the suspended judge was about to make an appearance. The clashes reveal the growing magnitude of the opposition to the president who, cognizant of the threat, banned all live television broadcasts of Chaudhry's triumphant appearances.

Banished former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, sensing that change is in the air, announced from exile that she is considering a challenge to Musharraf in the autumn. Nawaz Sharif has also shown great interest in returning to Pakistan. The news is likely to have played a role in Musharraf's decision to dispatch security forces to stifle the Taliban rebellion in Islamabad.