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Baghdad Babylon

Hope and Despair in Divided Iraq

By Ullrich Fichtner in Iraq

Part 7: 'We Need Time'

Crocker is considered a prominent authority on the Middle East. He grew up in Morocco and Turkey, he has served as ambassador to Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon, he has participated in diplomatic missions in Iran, Qatar and Egypt and he speaks the languages of the region. If anyone knows his way around this part of the world, it is this elegant man, who favors perfectly tailored, light-colored suits. Crocker says: "We need time."

He has a small, windowless office in a large, former Saddam palace in the Green Zone, where the US administration has all of its key offices. During meal times, the building's huge cafeterias are like a miniature version of Washington, complete with chandeliers and Italian marble floors. It's easy to get lost wandering around the building, wondering where Saddam may have slept, where he dined, where he governed and where he had his enemies tortured.

Crocker defends Maliki's government, at least on the surface. A seasoned diplomat, he brings his point across with rhetorical questions: "Is Maliki personally at fault? Or is it his government? Or is it simply the unbelievably difficult circumstances under which people are working here?"

He then argues for more patience, saying: "We had the most brutal of Baath regimes here for 35 years, and now we have a few years of turmoil. It isn't really all that much." But what about Maliki? Can he lead the country to success? Crocker doesn't like these kinds of questions, but he is constantly called upon to answer them. He says: "Even a more talented politician than Maliki would have big problems under these circumstances."

The Enemies of Success

However complicated it may be, Crocker has to keep the big picture in mind. It consists of the diagrams and charts General Petraeus uses and a map of the Middle East covered with arrows and shaded areas -- the big plan. The situation is such that Iraq's problems are not just Iraqi problems.

There is no doubt that the greatest enemies of success in Iraq are in Tehran and Damascus. Many of the jihadists enter the country through Syria, and Iran supports the terrorists with weapons and money. During their operations, US troops often find brand-new mines and grenades produced in Iranian weapons factories, sometime still in their original packaging. Fighters from the Iranian Al-Quds Brigades are active on Iraqi soil, and there are terrorist training camps across the border in Iran. "Iran," says Crocker, "wants to defeat the West on more than one front, and it also wants to make sure that Iraq will never pose a threat to it again."

The ambassador has already taken part in three-way talks involving Iranian, Iraqi and American delegates, and the next round is about to begin. At these meetings, Crocker says, it is obvious that Maliki, though a Shiite, is truly not in Iran's pocket. "The atmosphere at these meetings is frosty," he explains, "I mean, really frosty." But how do the Iranians explain their activities? "They don't explain them. It's very frustrating. There is a sort of total denial of reality on that issue."

Petraeus will not be the only one presenting his view of the situation in Iraq to Congress this September. Crocker, too, will be called to account before the representatives of the American people. He knows that there will be tremendous pressure, and he is fully aware that everyone is hoping for a speedy withdrawal. But, he says, "I'm not going to be there to deliver some sort of agenda. I'll be there to describe reality."

'We all Need More Time'

According to Crocker's reality, Iraq's politicians will need another two to three years to complete important tasks. To do so they will require the presence of the US military. "Of course the surge can't go on forever," says Crocker, "and of course Iraq will have to participate in the costs of this operation at some point. But one thing is certain: We all need more time."

When asked about critics of the war in the United States who are demanding an immediate withdrawal of US troops or a pull out by next April, Crocker can only shake his head in quiet disgust. Aside from the fact that the withdrawal of such a large combat force would take at least a year, logistically speaking, everything about these sorts of demands is unrealistic, he says.

"We Americans consider ourselves to be a moral nation, no matter how the rest of world might feel about it," says Crocker. It is clear, from his expression, that what he says next is very important to him. "How will we feel if the movie doesn't stop, even though we've pressed the 'stop' button? What if the movie just goes on? And gets even uglier? And even uglier after that?" Crocker makes a dramatic pause, clearly already practicing his best sentences for his appearance in Washington. "We're talking here about the possibility of thousands of deaths, about religious cleansing operations, we're talking here about the possibility that there could be no Sunnis left in Baghdad because they'll all have been murdered, driven out or expelled. Is this what we want? And who will explain that to Americans?"

The key to Iraq's future lies in Baghdad. If things go completely wrong in the capital, the rest of the country will be pulled down with it, and even peaceful Ramadi will tip the other way again. Violence will erupt once again in the deserts of Anbar Province, and weapons will return to the villages and towns that are now free of terrorists. A race is underway. Each day on the Iraqi calendar is now an historic day. The situation is tense and dramatic, even if the world has already decided not to look too closely anymore, preferring to spend its time arguing over who was right.

But anyone who travels in Iraq is moving through a world far away from Washington, Berlin, Paris or Brussels, a world where having the last word is irrelevant. Anyone who experiences the country will find himself despairing in one place and feeling hopeful in another, and in no city are the two extremes closer together than in Mosul. These two parallel worlds, the dark and the bright, coexist in Iraq's second-largest city, 370 kilometers (230 miles) north of Baghdad.

Mosul has all of the problems that are in evidence elsewhere in Iraq, but it also has all of the positive developments visible in other parts of the country. Acts of violence are on the rise, but the number of victims is declining. The number of weapons caches being found is rising, as is the police force's success rate. Besides all this, the city enjoys a decisive advantage over the rest of Iraq.

As of May 16, Mosul has its own legend to help it emerge into a new era.