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Machinations in the Kremlin

Putin's Risky Bid to Hold on to Power

By Uwe Klussmann, Christian Neef and Matthias Schepp in Moscow

Vladimir Putin appears to have found a way to remain the most powerful man in Russia after he leaves office as president -- without having to amend the constitution. But his plan is not without risk. It could aggravate tensions within the innermost Kremlin circle.

The convention of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party had barely ended, and the stage at Moscow's 500-year-old Gostiny Dvor Arcade on Red Square had not yet been dismantled before outrage began to surge through the American media and political circles in Washington.

The New York Times called it Putin's "cynical game" and a "crass political manipulation," one that would have the opposite of its intended effect and would come to haunt Russia. Even the usually reserved Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was quoted as saying that the concentration of power in Moscow was "concerning." Her deputy spokesman, Tom Casey, added, as a warning, that America would now be keeping a close eye "on how the political process develops, how the elections develop there."

Casey was referring to the Dec. 2 parliamentary elections in Russia, in which about 105 million Russians will be eligible to vote. It is an election that will likely set the course for the future political career of Vladimir Vladimirivich Putin.

The shrewd Russian president scored his latest tactical coup on Monday of last week when, at the United Russia party's convention, he indicated that he might be a candidate for the post of prime minister. He told the assembled delegates that he was "grateful" for their proposal to present United Russia's election list. Putin's comments were met with several minutes of applause.

The most paradoxical aspect of the election is that, eight weeks before Russians go to the polls, the outcome is already a foregone conclusion. Observers agree that after Putin's speech last Monday, his artificial party will capture at least two-thirds of the seats in the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament. The president will receive the top mandate and, later on, possibly the office of prime minister. This, Putin told his audience with a nod, was "certainly a realistic proposal."

Is this a way for Russia's most powerful man to become his own successor after clearing his office when his term as president comes to an end next spring? Will he manage to remain in power, without amending so much as a word of the constitution, by suddenly turning the position of prime minister -- a more or less meaningless position under Putin -- into the country's most powerful political office?

Although the timing and form of Putin's public offering may be surprising, the "prime minister option" itself wasn't unexpected. For months it had been treated as a possible way to ensure that the Putin system continues beyond May of 2008.

The Americans were fully aware of this. Their thinly veiled threat to expose the Russian elections as rigged is just as ineffective as the temporary outburst of indignation in Washington. In a country in which 66 percent of citizens -- and an even larger percentage of women and rural residents -- actually want Putin to continue to play an "active political role," there is no need for anyone to stuff the ballot boxes. "People like his ideas," Putin loyalist Vladimir Yakunin offers by way of explanation of the president's enduring popularity.

American Disquiet at the Reemergence of a Strong Russia

The appeal by the delegate Yelena Lakshina, a textile worker from the central Russian Ivanovo region, to the "many bosses" at the convention center to "think of something" to allow Putin to remain in power was obviously a stage-managed performance. But in contrast to the staged party conventions of the Brezhnev era, Ms. Lapshina's outburst didn't appear to be some mindless recital of the party line. It was, presumably, heartfelt -- and it was real.

What infuriates America is the way in which Putin manages to perfect his virtual form of democracy without making himself vulnerable to attack. And what also has Washington seething is the fact that the Russia reemerging on the international stage is a country that until recently seemed incapable of giving satisfaction, but now has little need for American sympathy and is, in fact, constantly trying to thwart the Bush administration in world politics, be it in Kosovo, Iran, the Middle East or when it comes to the issue of missile defense.

Against a backdrop of large banners emblazoned with the words "Putin's Plan, Russia's Victory," the president raised the hopes of the party delegates at the Gostiny Dvor Arcade that their country would continue to improve its position in the world, including its military strength. The modernization the Russian military has undergone so far, Putin told his audience, is "only the first step in the rebirth of our armed forces."

It is becoming increasingly clear, even to the Americans, that with Putin as its key figure Russia will remain a prickly opponent in the coming years, and one that will seek to shape issues of foreign policy to further its own interests. As if to confirm this pattern, the state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine once again, citing the country's $1.3 billion in overdue payments -- precisely two days after the pro-Western Orange Coalition secured a majority in the country's parliamentary elections.

Moscow interpreted Washington's heated reactions as tantamount to an accolade and recognition of Russia's new strength. Hardly any Russians are likely to be too offended by the fact that the matter of Putin's successor was essentially hammered out behind the closed doors of the Kremlin. A Moscow magazine even insisted that the Kremlin must remain "secretive and impenetrable" in the future, because this would be the only way it could "properly defend Russian interests against the West."

Putin's candidacy as the sole candidate of United Russia (a party in which he is not even a member) and his possible role as prime minister will strengthen the government, political parties and the parliament, crowed Putin associates like Valentina Matviyenko, the governor of St. Petersburg. But Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion and hopeless presidential candidate for the liberal, left-leaning opposition coalition, Other Russia, sees his country drifting into a "slightly watered-down one-party dictatorship."