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Elections in Lebanon

Setting the Stage for a War Film

By Ulrike Putz in Beirut

Lebanon faces an extremely difficult few days. If no president is named by midnight Friday, the country could be threatened with street battles, insurgencies, a divided land or even civil war. Beirut residents are being forced to look on as their fate is sealed.

It was a sad little group standing there in the pouring winter rain. "Chalas, stop now," read the text printed on the t-shirts of the 30 or so protesters. Their message: put a stop to Lebanon's domestic political crisis. The police have something to say, too, as they turn up in front of parliament a few minutes after the demonstration starts. "Chalas, that's enough," they say, before ordering the protesters and press to go home.

With less than two days to go before the presidential election, the situation in Lebanon is so tense that police worry even the slightest tremor could trigger an earthquake. It doesn't matter to them that the only concern demonstrators have on their minds is that a president actually gets elected here on Friday. The police would prefer that the protesters keep quiet and stay home as long as major league politics continue to be waged backstage.

"It's just like before -- they say the people should go home and wait," says a furious Zeina, at 52 the oldest political activist at the protest. "What are we supposed to be waiting for? War to break out on Saturday?"

Beirut these days looks like an eerie Hollywood backlot. A film crew has set up the stage for a war film and is just waiting for the director to yell "action." Tanks are stationed at all of the important intersections, and soldiers armed with assault rifles inspect passing cars. Cafés are practically deserted, and numerous schools have cancelled classes until further notice.

Few may be aware of the fact that 40 of the 67 members of parliament who are part of the government coalition have sequestered themselves in a luxury hotel out of fear they might become assassination targets. That is until one of the politicians actually builds up enough courage to leave the hotel, and is escorted by convoys of armoured cars with sirens and flashing blue lights that rush through the city streets. It's an image that reinforces the feeling of a looming threat that Beirut residents have been unable to shake for months. The ever-present ruins of the civil war are constant reminders that Beirut is a city where people live in constant fear. The recent spat of bad weather, too, feels like a bad omen.

Lebanon faces a tough few days. Outgoing President Emile Lahoud is leaving office on Saturday, and the Lebanese constitution stipulates that parliament elect a new head of state by that time. The election will also determine Lebanon's direction for the coming years and whether it becomes a place of war or peace.

The country is deeply divided, the political debate filled with hatred. On the one side you have the supporters of the pro-Western government and on the other backers of the pro-Syrian Shiite groups and a Christian opposition party. What makes the situation such a powder keg is that all of these groups have armed themselves in recent months. Each has recruited thousands of fighters in order to prepare for any eventual outcome.

Indeed, the prospects for peace don't look very good at the moment. In order to prevent an escalation, the government and opposition must come to an agreement on a presidential candidate by midnight Friday.

It's doubtful whether they can succeed. Negotiations aimed at finding a consensus have been taking place in Beirut backrooms since September. During the past two weeks there has been a constant stream of European foreign ministers attending the talks as mediators. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon even travelled to Beirut to bring the squabbling sides together. If a compromise isn't reached by Friday, though, anything could happen. In the best case scenario, the opposition would call for the creation of a counter government. In the worst case, the lack of an agreement could trigger street fighting, insurgencies and a new civil war.

Despite the fact that the country threatens to fall into the abyss, only 30 people bothered to show up at the protest in front of parliament. The sad scene in the rain, though, is symptomatic. Over decades, people here have gotten used to the fact that Lebanese politics aren't conducted in parliament. They have resigned themselves to the fact that it is often foreign powers pulling the strings -- be it the United States or France, which want to keep Lebanon as a beachhead to the Middle East. Or Shiite Iran, which in the Shiite Hezbollah has an ally sitting directly on the border to northern Israel.

"The normal Lebanese have fallen to the wayside," says Zeina. First 15 years of civil war and then, last year, the war against Israel prompted by Hezbollah. "Every time we have just about pulled ourselves back together another crisis comes and destroys everything." Zeina, a housewife from a Beirut suburb, cries -- she feels she could almost faint with anger. Those who are young and talented leave, she says in a strained voice. "My three children live abroad." The fact that none of them wants to build a future in their home country is what brought her here today. "I'm actually a very non-political person, but I've had enough."

The crux of the problem in Lebanon is that the country has exactly 18 predetermined breaking points. That's the number of religions and confessions in this small, mountainous land of only 4 million residents.

In order to prevent conflicts along the religious demarcation lines, the state guarantees that the largest religious groups have proportional political representation. The most important government posts are filled based on religion, and the presidency is reserved for the Christians.

One major source of conflict is the fact that the census that provides the basis for the proportional representation system was established back in 1932. Back then Christians represented the majority of the population. But a mass exodus of Christians and a higher birth rate amongst the Muslim population over the past 75 years has dramatically changed the composition of Lebanon. The Shiites, especially, feel insufficiently represented by the proportional representation system and they are pushing for a change in their favor.

That's why they're pushing for a compromise candidate for the office of president. The president has to approve any changes to the constitution; and the opposition needs a head of state well-disposed towards their aim of securing a greater proportion of power in Lebanon.

A new president, a new election law and a reordered country. Zeina doesn't want to think that far ahead today.

"I just pray that our country will survive in the coming days," the peace protester says. "I hope that the reasonable people amongst our politicians can come to an agreement." That can't be that difficult, can it? she asks. "At the end of the day, we just want to be able to provide our children with a future."