Bali Conference
US Seeks Alliance with China and India to Block Climate Protection
By Gregor Peter Schmitz in Washington, D.C.
Officially, the US government says it wants to push in Bali for a climate protection "road map." But SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that this may not be true. US government officials are already attempting to coordinate with China and India to prevent binding emissions limits.
REUTERS
An aerial view of an unnamed Indonesian island in Riau province: Many of Indonesia's islands may be swallowed up by the sea if world leaders fail to find a way to halt rising sea levels at a climate change conference on the resort island of Bali.
In recent official statements, Washington has indicated it might be looking for a compromise during negotiations in Bali for a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. But sources say the White House is discreetly searching for partners in Beijing and Dehli to derail the prospects for any binding agreements to curb emissions of greenhouse gases.
In the run-up to the Bali Climate Conference that opened Monday, the administration of US President George W. Bush established contact with representatives of the Chinese and Indian governments in an attempt to curb progress on climate protection initiatives, SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned from a source familiar with the White House's Bali strategy.
According to the source, Washington is hoping that the two greenhouse gas emitters will openly declare during the conference that they are unwilling to accept any binding limits on emissions of greenhouse gases -- at least not as long as the US is unwilling to do more or if the Western industrial nations do not provide them with more financial aid for climate protection initiatives. If successful, the US could use the tactic to prevent itself from becoming an isolated scapegoat if negotiations in Bali end in a stalemate.
"Bush's people don't want to make any real progress in the next two weeks," one Washington insider said. "But they also don't want to be severely criticized internationally again. So now the White House is seeking discreet ways of preventing binding limits on emissions."
Indirect teamwork with China and India appears to be regarded as one such way -- and Americans apparently feel it is essential. One problem is that the US can no longer count on one of its closest allies in its refusal to adopt more rigid climate protection rules: The first official act of Australia's new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd when he entered office Monday was to sign the Kyoto Protocol. He wants to try to ratify it in parliament later this week.
The strategy talks with China and India, though, are a glaring contradiction to the official statements coming from the US delegation before the start of the world climate conference. Just last week, Paula Dobriansky, undersecretary of state and the chief US representative in Bali, said week: "We'd like to see consensus on the launch of negotiations. We want to see a Bali roadmap."
UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE ON BALI: THE STARTING POSITIONS
From Dec. 3-14, delegations from 192 countries are meeting on the Indonesian island Bali. There they will negotiate a successor treaty to the Kyoto climate protection protocol, which expires in 2012. During the final days of negotiations, the environment ministers of each country will meet on the Indonesian island. Representing Germany are Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel and Development Minister Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul. Around 3,000 police and 7,000 soldiers will provide security during the summit.
German has committed itself to reducing its carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent, a goal that is expected to make Germany the trailblazer in climate protection policies. Environment Minister Gabriel is calling for a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol that is not only binding, but also verifiable. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also said that a Kyoto successor treaty would only make sense if it included clear goals for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. (Source: AFP)
As a whole, the EU has set very ambitious climate protection goals. In spring, during the German EU presidency, the group agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 by 30 percent compared to 1990 levels, with the condition that other industrialized nations also pull their own weight. If other Western countries refuse to join the EU, the union has said it will still commit to a 20 percent reduction. Still, so far, anyway, the EU has had major problems fulfilling its own Kyoto commitments, which call on Europe to reduce its CO2 emissions by 8 percent from 1990 levels.
The economic boom in up-and-coming nations like China and India is also leading to a massive increase in their emissions of greenhouse gases. In order to prevent a climate catastrophe, greenhouse gases cannot be allowed to increase unhindered. Still, newly industrialized and developing nations are arguing that they aren't responsible for the climate calamity. One solution to bring them onboard the new regime could be emissions trading: A system that would set emissions limits based on the size of a country's population. Countries with relatively small per-capita emissions could sell their unused certificates to industrialized nations in a move that would also help to boost their own economies.
The world's most economically powerful country, responsible for almost one-quarter of global CO2 emissions, has so far refused to agree to any binding reduction targets, claiming it might threaten the economy. Since he entered office in 2001, President George W. Bush has boycotted the Kyoto Protocol. At the G-8 summit in June in Heiligendamm in Germany, Bush agreed to "consider seriously" the European plan to halve global emissions by 2050. In the meantime, the US government has shown its first signs of a change of heart on climate change.
But in Washington, people have been saying for days that this is just a diversionary tactic, and the government definitely wants to prevent clear agreements on pollutant limits. President Bush, too, sounded cautious last Wednesday in his comments on the climate. "We must lead the world to produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions," he said, before adding, "We must do it in a way that does not undermine economic growth or prevent nations from delivering greater prosperity for their people."
The Bush administration has so far always refused to accept binding rules on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. They rejected the Kyoto Protocol, which established limits for emissions. The US has also regularly tried to obstruct the UN negotiations over a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.
Hence the climate conference in September in Washington, to which Bush invited key industrialized countries, was regarded by the majority of climate experts as an attempt to devalue the Bali meeting. There was hardly any talk of concrete agreements. It's true that the White House no longer openly denies the facts of global warming. But it still calls for voluntary technical guidelines that will not put a burden on the economy, and suggests that technological innovations can solve the pollution problem.
With its effort to reach an agreement with China and India, Washington is now seeking to ensure that even in Bali the principle of voluntary guidelines will not be shaken. It is not clear, however, whether this strategy will work out. In the run-up to the conference, China had already reiterated its stance that the United States and the West must act first, and rejected mandatory limits of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the Chinese also held a meeting with senior representatives of the United States Congress in September -- bypassing the White House.
The main message the Chinese took away from that discussion was that the power center in Washington regarding climate issues had shifted to Congress, and that Congress would soon decide on stringent emissions limits. Such a move would also increase pressure on Beijing to accept stricter measures -- meaning that the Chinese delegation might already be willing to negotiate in Bali.
ON THE AGENDA AT BALI
The Bali Climate Change Conference runs from Dec. 3-14 on the island of Bali in Indonesia. The most pressing task immediately facing conference delegates will be to set a timeline in which to draft a new treaty. The Kyoto Protocol, which was drafted in 1997 and enacted in 2005, expires in 2012. The goal is to draft a successor treaty by 2009, which UN officials believe would leave enough time for it to be ratified by nations around the world and enacted in 2012.
"Mitigation is a fancy word for reducing emissions," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. "We're talking about what rich countries can do to actually reduce emissions by 20 to 30 percent." A major focus of the new treaty will be a commitment from the richest nations in the world to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to as much as 30 percent below 1990 levels. European leaders said this week that they also intend for the new contract to cover emerging economies in Brazil, China, and India. Emissions in those countries are growing rapidly, but each was excused from binding commitments under the Kyoto protocol because their economies are still in a development phase.
Adaptation means helping poor and underdeveloped countries prepare for the impact of climate change already underway due to previous emissions. Recent studies, particularly the IPCC report released in April, show that unchecked greenhouse gas emissions will raise the median temperature on earth enough to cause rising sea levels, shifting weather patterns, water shortages, and more frequent tropical storms. Adaptation methods implemented by a new treaty might include education programs to help farmers and fisherman adapt to a changing climate, structural projects like levies, bridges, and roads, and public policies to direct disaster management and environmental conservation.
Another factor under discussion for inclusion in the new treaty will be technology-sharing efforts between advanced economies and poorer nations. For instance, computer systems and scientific monitoring equipment developed in rich nations may be employed in poorer regions to monitor the impacts of climate change and to aid in natural resource management. Such equipment could also help monitor emissions rates in countries with a shorter history of tracking their green house gas emissions.
A study released in August determined that because they were not included in any international emissions-reduction scheme, there was little incentive for leaders of underdeveloped nations with large tropical forests to protect tropical forests. These forests absorb an enormous amount of carbon, and their destruction, through logging, development, and slash-and-burn farming, leads to 20 to 25 percent of annual carbon emissions across the globe.
"Now it's becoming more and more obvious that the role of deforestation is enormous, so it makes sense if we are at risk of putting many more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere then why don’t we protect those forests?" said Russell Mittermeier, president of Conservation International and co-author of the study.
One solution might be for rich nations to invest in the preservation of a poorer country's forests either through direct aide or to earn credits in an international carbon trading scheme.
To fulfill their emissions reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, European Union member states opted to achieve a collective goal and trade emission allowances amongst themselves on an open market. The system they devised is called the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits are bought and sold between greenhouse gas emitters on an open market. Each credit is equal to one ton of carbon. According to UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol has led to international emissions trading worth $30 billion in 2006, most of the trade taking place in the EU ETS.
The United Nations is encouraging the expansion of that model into an international market. If such a market were implemented as fully as it has been in Europe, said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary to the UNFCCC, an international market of trade between rich and poor nations might be worth over $100 billion per year.
"That would offer rich countries the choice of reducing emissions at home or implementing a project in a developing country," said de Boer. "Often reducing emissions in developing countries is a lot cheaper."
In fact, despite the blockade attempts by the White House, a change of heart is taking place in the US. It's possible that a Congressional committee could start discussing an ambitious climate change proposal by Senators Joseph Lieberman and John Warner as early as this week. The bill proposes that US emissions of greenhouse gases be reduced by 15 percent compared to 2005 levels by 2020. In addition, a trading system for emissions similar to the European model could be created.
"Ten years after the rejection of the Kyoto Protocol, that would be a real breakthrough," said Peter Goldmark, a former president of the Rockefeller Foundation who is now head of the Climate and Air program at the influential environmental organization Environmental Defense.
Last Friday, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi (a Democrat), pushed through new restrictions on auto emissions. If the bill becomes law, American car manufacturers will have to improve the efficiency of engines in cars and small trucks by 40 percent before 2020.
On a regional level, the US is changing fast. The governors of California, Utah and Montana have just started a TV campaign to demand new measures against climate change. "In state after state, we're taking action," say the governors. "Now it's time for Congress to act by capping greenhouse gas pollution."
"Now it's their turn," says Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Nine governors from the Midwest recently signed an agreement to reduce greenhouse gases in their respective states and to introduce an emissions trading system.
Before the Bali conference, there was a sensation in Washington over a report produced by the consulting agency McKinsey in cooperation with some environmental organizations. The consultants estimated that Americans could curb their greenhouse gas emissions with small technological innovations and moderate financial investment by a staggering 28 percent. But the report wasn't a work of pure fiction: The amount of CO2 emitted per person in the United States is estimated to be twice as high as the same figure in the UK or Germany.
Peter Goldmark thinks political support exists for a sea change in US climate policy. "All our studies show that people understand that if you start now, the impact (on the economy and the so-called American way of life) will be minimal. If you wait too long, it will have a tremendous impact."
© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2007
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