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  Washington's Political Earthquake: Intelligence Agencies Put Brakes on Bush's Iran Plans

Washington's Political Earthquake Intelligence Agencies Put Brakes on Bush's Iran Plans

By Erich Follath, Cordula Meyer and Christoph Schult

Part 2: An Unassailable Report or Palace Coup?

The intelligence report has brought down an entire world for the hawks among the Republicans, and they are already working out their versions of the story -- and about how they have been stabbed in the back. But when it comes to facts, the report is apparently unassailable.

The CIA's conclusions are based on documents agents obtained in the summer of 2006. In the documents, Iranian military officials who had been involved in the nuclear program complain bitterly over its termination. The transcripts of wiretapped telephone conversations have silenced the critics who initially claimed that the Iranian documents must have been planted.

"The evidentiary situation must be outstanding," says CIA expert Riedel. "Otherwise all 16 services wouldn't be this sure" -- especially not after the intelligence disasters surrounding the Iraq war. Nothing cast the quality of US espionage in quite as devastating a light as the statements of then-CIA Director George Tenet, who claimed self-righteously -- and incorrectly -- in late 2002 that the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq was a "slam dunk."

For Republican hawks, the mere fact that the National Intelligence Estimate has been made public is nothing short of scandalous. Bolton, in an interview with SPIEGEL, even calls it a "quasi-coup." "It's politics disguised as intelligence." According to Bolton, the intelligence agencies are dissatisfied with the Bush administration. There are some who believe that their goal in issuing the report, possibly with the approval of Secretary of Defense and former CIA Director Robert Gates, was to make war with Iran impossible.

Even a sober Middle East expert like Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations sees Bush's authority greatly undermined. "We assume that government agencies have defied the White House," he says. In a complete role reversal, says Takeyh, the intelligence agencies and generals are now dictating policy to the president. "This suggests that Bush doesn't have much say anymore." The president, who travels to Israel in January, may in fact be so weakened that he will no longer be able to convince Israel's political leadership to agree to the compromises needed to achieve real progress in the region.

In no other country besides the United States was the intelligence report received with as much consternation as in Israel. The tabloid Yedioth Ahronoth called it "painful" and a "blow beneath the belt." Israel, wrote the liberal daily Haaretz, is now like "a panic-stricken rabbit." The country's politicians downplayed their outrage, at least publicly. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert even managed to interpret the report as a call to tighten international sanctions.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak, for his part, expressed doubts over the quality of the US intelligence. "It is apparently true that in 2003 Iran stopped pursuing its military nuclear program for a certain period of time,” Barak said. "But in our estimation, since then it is apparently continuing with its program to produce a nuclear weapon."

Behind the scenes, Jerusalem is furious with Washington. The Israelis feel upstaged by the CIA, and they remain convinced that their intelligence on Tehran's plans is still the best. They also continue to assume that Iran could have nuclear weapons by late 2009. "We had hoped that the Americans would take care of this with a military strike against the Iranian facilities," a close associate of the prime minister told SPIEGEL. "Now we're on our own."