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New Hampshire Primary

Fear of Recession Boosting Obama and Edwards

By Marc Pitzke in Derry, New Hampshire

The economy has emerged at the forefront of the debate in the run-up to Tuesday's election primary in New Hampshire. Growing fears of a recession are transforming the campaign into a class battle between rich and poor, underdogs and millionaire candidates.

John Edwards is in his element. He may look a bit pale and sound a little hoarse, but he's unflinching as he rages on. He speaks of "the fight of the middle class for survival," of greedy HMOs, exorbitant gas prices and unaffordable heating oil. And then of ExxonMobil, which registered $40 billion in profits last year and of the "richest Americans, who get even richer" His words, of course, are greeted with approval.

The candidate for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination calls this realistic horror vision "the two Americas." It's the kind of message that always finds traction -- especially in places like Derry, a working-class town in southeast New Hampshire. About 1,000 people listen to Edwards at a town hall meeting in the cafeteria of Gilbert H. Hood Middle School on Sunday evening. Most are representatives of Edwards' classic voter base -- middle class Americans in blue jeans and sweatshirts (some of which bear slogans like, "Carpenters for Edwards"). These sorts of supporters have left the door wide open for Edwards.

Edwards wanders to the center of the audience as he speaks. His event has been dubbed the "Working Families Forum." There's is nothing new in his message, but it resonates better than before, because fears of a recession in the US have grown even since last weekend -- affirmation of his long-ignored warnings of a coming economic disaster.

Unemployment is worsening, markets are in a downturn, stock prices are plunging: The latest negative headlines from Washington and New York could be heard loud and clear in Derry. The people who are suffering most are presenting themselves here, splashed in neon light -- some with crutches, others in wheelchairs, gaunt faces and ears open, ready to listen to sympathetic words. It would be difficult to find a better way of illustrating the contrast between Wall Street and Main Street upon which Edwards has based his campaign.

The Hour of the Populists

Suddenly there is little talk from candidates in either party of the Iraq war. The words coming out of everyone's mouths, Democrat and Republican, are almost exclusively about the economy, the poor and the sick, the rich lobbyists. This shift was apparent already in Iowa, and it led to the surprise victory of two protagonists of the middle class -- Obama and Huckabee -- over the multi-millionaire establishment, Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. Romney's election strategist Alex Castellanos sees a clear connection. "As concern about the economy grows," he says, "you've seen in both parties this populist strain of appealing to voters."

Everyone wants to be the true avenger for the underdogs. Obama has complained, in his booming baritone, about an economy that "is out of balance." For her part, Clinton has also unveiled an "economic action plan."

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney has a new TV ad for New Hampshire with the title: "Growth and Prosperity." And Mike Huckabee in the smooth tones of the Baptist preacher has spoken about the tax burden and the increased price of heating oil, saying, "People are looking for a presidential candidate who reminds them more of the guy they work with rather than the guy that laid them off."

Opinion polls also show that the economy has taken center stage in this campaign. Iowans had already explained that the caucuses last Thursday were heavily influenced by economic questions. But the news the following morning -- that US unemployment figures were the highest since 2005 -- highlighted the underlying concerns in New Hampshire. A survey on the social networking Web site, Facebook (a co-sponsor of the double debate on Saturday), found that 44 percent of those who watched the debate wanted more discussion about the economy -- far ahead of any other issue.

Tangible Issues, Pointed Questions

This, after all, is New Hampshire, a conservative but cool-headed state where the usual Republican firebrand topics of abortion and gay marriage have little traction. In this notoriously independent corner of New England, the majority of voters don’t belong to either party, and the underdog always does well. People here are more interested in tangible issues than abstract concepts. At every appearance from Nashua to Rochester, from Portsmouth to Keene, the candidates hear pointed questions about pensions and health care, about the increasing cost of living for the middle classes and the high oil and energy prices -- and those asking the questions are always well informed.

Edwards was quick to realize this in the school cafeteria in Derry. One woman interrogated him in minute detail about how he would solve the health crisis. Another wanted to hear concrete suggestions about saving the retirement system. Edwards dealt with all these questions confidently and convincingly. And yet he lacks Obama's power of persuasion and charisma.

One question no one asked was about donations to his election campaign. The answer would have been interesting: The lion's share of the money that Edwards has collected for his candidacy ($11.4 million) comes from insurance companies, real estate magnates, rich lawyers, lobbyists and "miscellaneous business." Even here -- in the cafeteria of the Gilbert H. Hood Middle School, with John Edwards pacing the room -- it seems there are "two Americas."