By Christoph Seidler in Tromsø, Norway
Still, the extent of the oil and gas reserves that actually exists in the Arctic remains unclear. According to a frequently cited study by the US Geological Service (USGS) completed in 2000, one-quarter of all undiscovered oil and gas reserves on earth lie beneath the ice of the Arctic. But this impressive figure is not undisputed, especially given the USGS experts' reputation for having a fondness for delivering optimistic estimates. In the 1990s, they predicted an oil boom in the Caspian Sea, but nowadays experts believe that the region's actual reserves are only about one-eighth as big as the USGS's original estimate.
"There is a lot of optimism about the resource potential in the Arctic" says Elisabeth Walaas, State Secretary in the Norwegian Foreign Ministry -- notwithstanding the fact that the USGS estimates "tend to be vague." To avoid putting themselves on the spot once again with inflated numbers, the US scientists plan to publish an updated version of their estimates this year.
Snow White with Growing Pains
The production technology needed in the Arctic, at any rate, is already well advanced, as a project in far northern Norway illustrates. StatoilHydro produces natural gas in a fully-automated plant on the continental shelf in the Barents Sea, at a depth of more than 300 meters (984 feet) below sea level, about 145 kilometers (90 miles) off the Norwegian coast near the city of Hammerfest.
The plant, dubbed "Snøhvit," or Snow White, is considered a prototype for fully automated underwater production -- and even figured prominently in German novelist Frank Schätzing's bestseller "The Swarm." The gas is pumped through a 70-centimeter (28-inch) pipeline from the ocean floor to a terminal on Melkøya Island, where it is cooled, liquefied and loaded onto tankers. But Snow White is still suffering from growing pains, as visibly stressed StatoilHydro employees readily concede.
StatoilHydro authorities were forced this month to submit a request to parliament for an increase in the amount of carbon and soot the company can emit into the atmosphere at the Melkøya terminal. Start-up emissions at the plant have been greater than expected, placing a government keen on presenting itself as environmentally progressive in an awkward position, according to the English edition of the Norwegian daily Aftenposten. Critics are concerned the emissions represent a greater risk to the environment because of the facility's Arctic latitude. A failure of the project, though, would be disastrous for the company's ambitious Arctic adventure.
'An Uparalleled Level of Ecological Sensitivity'
Meanwhile, John Calder remains perplexed. His report, originally intended as a milestone in the development of the Arctic oil and gas industry, could end up being largely ignored because its most important section, the recommendations for action, is missing.
"Risks cannot be completely ruled out," the authors write in the penultimate chapter of the AMAP report. It is statements like these that have prompted the environmental organization World Wildlife Fund, which presented its own report in Tromsø on the risks of oil accidents in Arctic environs, to call for an end to exploration for new oil and gas reserves in the Arctic.
"The Arctic has an almost unparalleled level of ecological sensitivity and one of the lowest levels of capacity in terms of cleaning up after an accident," said James Leaton of WWF's chapter in the United Kingdom.
The head of the group's international Arctic program, Neil Hamilton, warned that those factors should be considered in any risk equation used to determine whether drilling should happen there.
"The fact that a catastrophic spill might exceed the operating limits of existing oil spill response technologies is a strong argument for a moratorium until the response gap is filled," he said.
But that demand is likely to remain little more than a fervent wish.
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