Wednesday, February 10, 2010

International


01/27/2008
 

Obama Wins South Carolina

Clintons Grasping for Historical Straws after Crushing Defeat

By Gregor Peter Schmitz in Columbia, South Carolina

The Democratic primary in South Carolina wasn't even close. But the Clinton campaign is now pulling out all the stops. In Obama, they see a second Jesse Jackson -- and the comparison is not meant to be a flattering one.

The hall inside the Metropolitan Convention Center in Columbia was jam-packed -- the mood electric. Many were joining the alternating chants for "change" and "hope." Others were just cheering. They already knew that their hero, Barack Obama, had won the Democratic primary in South Carolina. Now they were waiting for him to speak.

But then, suddenly, a chorus of boos began to fill the hall. Dozens of hands reach up with their thumbs pointed toward the floor while others gestured toward the gigantic screen in the center of the hall. On the screen was Bill Clinton.

The former president was holding a speech in faraway Missouri, and he even allowed himself a brief aside to congratulate Obama. But the sound on the screen in Columbia wasn't turned on, and the Obama supporters gathered there were only able to see Clinton's flushed face. They booed for all they were worth.

Not Even Close

If one still needed proof of what happened on Saturday evening in South Carolina, then this moment could provide it. Yes, Barack Obama won the state primary. But just as important for many of the Illinois senator's supporters: The Clintons lost.

In the end, the primary wasn't even close: Obama got 55 percent of the vote while Hillary Clinton managed a paltry 27 percent. John Edwards, a native of South Carolina, came in third with 18 percent. Fully 532,000 Democrats made their way to the polls, almost twice as many as cast their primary ballots in 2004. Among white voters, Obama didn't do poorly: almost one in four chose him against 37.5 percent for Clinton. But among black voters, the vote was reminiscent of Communist dictatorships: 80 percent voted for Obama.

CNN declared Obama the victor just minutes after the last polling station closed, but it was almost 9 p.m. before he made his way to the podium to address his supporters. Basking in the euphoria of the crowd, Obama wasn't in the mood to play down the moment. "After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates and the most diverse coalition of Americans we've seen in a long, long time," he yelled out into the hall.

It never takes long for Obama to hit his stride and Saturday evening was no different. But as similar as every political victory speech sounds, this one struck a tone not heard when he won the caucus on Jan. 3 in Iowa. Of course, inspiration remains a mainstay, but he also had something to say. "Right now, the status quo is fighting back with everything it's got," he warned. And then came the list of divisions he hopes to patch up. The rich and the poor, he said, need to come together; whites, blacks and Latinos should join forces; Republicans and Democrats must forget their differences. And after every example belted out from the podium, Obama's voice echoed through the hall so loudly that it seemed he wanted Bill Clinton to hear him halfway across the country in Missouri. "Don't tell me change is not possible!"

Race Completely Open

The speech was an impassioned plea for togetherness. But the fight goes on. It is just nine days until "Super Duper Tuesday" on February 5 -- the day when 22 states go to the polls to chose who they want to see as the Democratic candidate for president. On the Republican side, 21 states will choose. And the race is completely open. Clinton has won three states against Obama's two. Obama, though it hardly matters, has two more delegates than his rival from New York.

THE CANDIDATES AND FOREIGN POLICY

There were 45 delegates to be had on Saturday evening in South Carolina, but on Feb. 5, more than 1,000 will be divvied up. Even then, it is possible that the race will remain hopelessly deadlocked. Due to the Democrats' proportional system of dividing up the delegates, it is difficult to see how either Obama or Clinton could pull away. Indeed, John Edwards -- the former senator of North Carolina, who put a brave face on the results and said he was encouraged by his 18 percent -- could play the role of kingmaker.

Still, third place is a major hit for his campaign. Edwards was born in South Carolina, and he even won the primary here four years ago. On the night before the primary, he held a speech in Charleston in which he once again reminded his audience that he was the underdog but insisted he was the only one addressing the issues. "Vote for somebody who's actually focused on the problems that you're faced with, from jobs to health care to ending the war in Iraq, as opposed to two candidates who are spending all their time and energy tearing each other down," he said. Still, he has yet to emerge victorious from a single caucus or primary in this election season, and his campaign has little money left. Still, should the duel between Clinton and Obama remain undecided until the Democratic Convention in August, Edwards' delegates could very well play a decisive role.

A Second Jesse Jackson?

Clinton too is doing the delegate math in her spare time. Even as Obama was holding his victory speech in South Carolina, she was already far away, at a campaign event in Tennessee, which is part of the Super Tuesday extravaganza. Instead of holding a speech, she released a statement in the first paragraph of which she says how happy she is that millions of people in Florida and other states across the country will soon be allowed to cast their ballots. The mention of Florida, though, jumps off the page. The Democrats had actually agreed not to campaign in the state during primary season because, by moving up the Democratic primary there, the state violated party rules. But with the race tight and become more bitter by the day, such technicalities no longer matter.

The battle, in short, is escalating. Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife, already landed the first punch. Jesse Jackson, he mentioned, also once won the South Carolina primary. Jackson, in 1984, managed to win primaries in five states and improved to 11 in his 1988 campaign, but he also scared a number of white voters away with his powerful rhetoric. The Clintons would love to paint Obama as a kind of "Jesse Jackson II." And it won't surprise anyone if the Clinton campaign talks a lot in the coming days about the huge numbers of black voters who went for Obama in South Carolina. Pat Buchanan, a former Republican candidate for president and now a television commentator, said the Clinton camp has Obama right where they want him.

It is, though, just as possible that the strategy will fail. The sheer dominance of Obama in South Carolina makes it difficult to point to any single factor for his victory. And the Illinois senator is getting support from all sides. In the New York Times on Sunday, Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of John F. Kennedy, threw her support behind Obama. "I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them," she wrote about Obama. "But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president -- not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans."

An Obama advisor expressed hope on Saturday evening that another Kennedy, JFK's younger brother Ted Kennedy, would come out in support of Obama in the coming days. Kennedy is something of a legend among Democrats and has already taken Bill Clinton to task for his aggressive rhetoric in this campaign. And he's not the only one. More and more Democrats are saying that the Clintons are fighting the battles of the 1990s. They are also concerned that Clinton, who remains a polarizing figure in the United States, could lose a general election against a moderate Republican candidate like John McCain. Even the influential weekly New Yorker wonders aloud in its current issue whether in might be a problem that Clinton never fails to impress, but rarely does she inspire.

In a poll taken by CNN after the primary votes were cast, voters were asked which candidate they felt was really concerned about people. Hillary Clinton came in last place. Not even 20 percent chose her.

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