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US Primaries

Obama Outclasses Clinton -- McCain Way Ahead

By Gregor Peter Schmitz in Washington

Barack Obama's momentum is growing. On Tuesday he celebrated victories in three more primaries, and he is fast surpassing Hillary Clinton's number of delegates for the Democratic nominating convention. Meanwhile, John McCain looks almost certain to be the Republican candidate.

Shortly before 8 p.m. things got embarrassing for Hillary Clinton. John King, one of CNN's leading election analysts, stood in front of a giant electronic screen that displayed all the votes from Tuesday's primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.

As the map of Virginia flashed behind King, he pointed to the lower left-hand corner. Somewhere in this tiny area, Hillary Clinton had done well, among rural white voters. "It's quite a fascinating dynamic in terms of the appeal of Senator Clinton and Governor Huckabee," was King's analysis as he pointed to the maverick district. Then he showed the areas where Barack Obama was winning. They spread out across the screen like a gigantic ocean. "Obama is winning where people live," King said dryly.

Hillary Clinton being compared to Mike Huckabee? Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher, has next to no chance of beating John McCain. When asked about the likelihood of his entering the White House, Huckabee likes to respond that he believes in miracles. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is the former first lady, who just a few months ago had a 30 percent lead over the other Democratic hopefuls.

But on Tuesday evening she was relegated to Huckabee's rank -- that of the outsider. And it was even more brutal for her. In Virginia she only managed a disappointing 35 percent of the votes against Obama's 64 percent. Her advisors had thought she had a good chance of doing well there because many poor whites live in the state, people Clinton usually does well with. In Washington, Obama outclassed her completely, winning 75 percent of the vote in comparison to her 25 percent. And in Maryland, where the polls stayed open late due to black ice, Clinton fared equally badly, with 37 percent compared to Obama's 60 percent.

Clinton Goes to Battle in Texas

By the time the disappointing results began to come in, Clinton had already left the three East Coast states on the Potomac River and headed to Texas, where she hopes to put a stop to Obama's winning streak at the March 4 primary. She gave a fierce speech in El Paso, where she didn't mention the primaries that were taking place elsewhere once. Barack Obama, meanwhile, headed for Wisconsin ahead of next week's primary there. He told thousands of cheering supporters: "Though we won in Washington, DC, this movement won't stop until there's change in Washington, DC. And tonight we're on our way!"

It seems the dramatic fight for the Democratic nomination has reached a turning point. Obama is now the clear front-runner in the duel. He has now won eight primaries in a row and has a total of 23 victories compared to Clinton's 10. The young senator from Illinois now has more delegates for the Democratic nominating convention in August: 1,215 compared to Clinton's 1190 (2,025 are necessary for the nomination).

This takes into account the so-called "superdelegates," around 800 party officials with voting rights at the convention, most of whom are considered closer to Clinton because of long-standing relationships in the party. However, these delegates can change their mind at any time. If Obama manages to continue notching up delegates in the primaries, then these superdelegates could switch camps. On Tuesday he convincingly swept away doubts about his popularity amongst all the voter groups: Obama won over women, older people and white people, from all income groups.

Mistakes and Confusion in the Clinton Camp

There's a good chance Obama's weeks of celebration will continue. Next Tuesday, he is expected to glide to victory in the primary in Hawaii, the state he grew up in. The Clinton camp also appears to have given up on Wisconsin, which has its primary the same day. Meanwhile, Obama is also continuing to rake in money. He's reportedly bringing in about $1 million (688,00) per day in donations, with Clinton only raising about half that. And though Clinton long dominated nationwide polls, Obama is now leading.

On Tuesday evening, Clinton's deputy campaign manager Mike Henry resigned. It's a further sign of mistakes and confusion in her team. But Clinton remained defiant. "I know how to fight for you," Clinton swore to her supporters in El Paso. Clinton is now putting all of her focus on Texas and Ohio, where March 4 primaries will determine the allocation of close to 400 delegates -- and where the number of Latino and working-class voters, two of Clinton's core constituencies, is high. But with each day without a victory, the pressure increases on Clinton. The New York Daily News is already pessimistic about the former first lady's prospects: "Suddenly, against all odds, the once-mighty Clinton campaign is beginning to feel like the last days of Pompeii."

At the same time, the need to triumph is also creating additional pressures for the Obama camp. The fascinating story of Clinton's decline has kept reporters on the edge of their seats for weeks. With Obama now in the lead, though, the media is increasingly focusing on his policies. Critical US journalists are already dissecting his economic proposals -- one of the most important issues to voters in economically depressed states like Ohio and Texas.

Obama has sought to address the issue, speaking extensively about minimum wages, what he describes as unfair trade treaties as well as retirement programs. The conservative Weekly Standard has even taken his much-vaunted style of speech-giving to task. Without a teleprompter, the magazine wrote, he's far from the great orator people have come to believe in. Describing one recent speech he had to give without technical assistance, the Weekly Standard wrote: "His delivery was halting and unsure. He looked down at his obviously copious notes every few seconds throughout the speech. Unlike the typical Obama oration where the words flow with unparalleled fluidity, he stumbled over his phrasing repeatedly."

John McCain is no longer having to deal with those kinds of skirmishes. With his victories in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, DC, the Arizona senator has almost eliminated any mathematical doubts about his prospects of becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. Still, his last remaining challenger, Mike Huckabee, fought bravely -- even winning 41 percent of the votes in Virginia. There, he performed particularly well amongst the state's religious Republicans. With their unbending support for Huckabee -- who has almost no chance of securing the nomination at this point -- voters seemed to be sending a signal to McCain that their support for him in the general election come November is not a given.

That's likely one reason McCain praised challenger Huckabee in detail in his acceptance speech and has shifted his focus to a new front: battling the Democrats. "We do not yet know for certain who will have the honor of being the Democratic Party's nominee for president," he said. "But we know where either of their candidates will lead this country, and we dare not let them," he added, in a litany against the Democrats' apparent penchant for wasting money and their supposed naiveté in foreign policy.

At the end of his speech, he even stole a line from Obama. "I'm fired up and ready to go," he said, grinning. Indeed, he already seems to be preparing to run against Barack Obama.