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Primaries in Wisconsin and Hawaii

Obama Leads 10:0 as Clinton's Chances Fade

By Gregor Peter Schmitz in Washington

After disastrous defeats in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Hillary Clinton desperately needs to win the Texas and Ohio primaries to stay in the presidential race. But more and more of Clinton's core constituencies are defecting to the Obama side.

Six minutes after the polling stations in Wisconsin closed on Tuesday, the result was already certain: Senator Hillary Clinton had suffered a resounding defeat in yet another primary. NBC star journalist Tim Russert supplied the analytical coup de grâce: The only group that still supports Clinton is white women over 50.

Every other exit poll analysis points in a single direction. Even in Wisconsin, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama made wide inroads into those electorate groups which had largely been on Clinton's side: Those with low incomes, women, voters with low levels of education and even union members. And the more Russert analyzed, the bigger Obama's gains seemed to become.

About 20 minutes later, the results became certainty and Obama was declared the winner with 58 percent of the vote to Clinton's 41 percent. With a further triumph later that night in Hawaii -- where he was born and was regarded as the clear favorite -- Obama continued his series of victories. He defeated Clinton in Hawaii with well over 70 percent.

With the new results, Obama is now leading by 10 wins to Clinton's zero since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. Even worse for Clinton, surveys of voters at Wisconsin polling stations clearly illustrated the wave of enthusiasm that Obama is currently riding to victory. According to those surveys, he received two-thirds of the votes among those who made up their minds in the last month. Until recently, Wisconsin was considered to be more a Clinton-friendly state, with its almost entirely white, suburban population full of blue-collar workes -- those who fear unemployment or recession.

Clinton was already in Youngstown, Ohio when she made her speech on Tuesday evening. Along with Texas, Ohio is part of the breakwall the Clinton camp hopes will save it from the Obama wave during the next round of primaries on March 4. "Hello, Youngstown," Clinton began in a loud voice. "I am thrilled to be here with all of you."

The crowd cheered, but the sentence bore a fatal resemblance to one she uttered during a similar appearance in Texas seven days after her defeat in three other primaries. Her words emphasized the fact that, for weeks, Clinton has had good reason not to be in the primary state on election night.

She began her speech with a whole staccato series of attacks on her rival, whom she does not even bother to congratulate. The US needs "a president who relies not just on words, but on work, on hard work to get America back to work," Clinton cried out. "We can't just have speeches. We've got to have solutions."

Her supporters held a sign reading, "We are behind you." They applauded when the former first lady attacked Obama for the umpteenth time over his stance on health care -- but the whole scene seemed somewhat artificial, as if the supporters were merely carrying out their duties.

The US television stations are already treating Clinton as a loser. While she was talking, Obama appeared in Houston, Texas, where he told some 20,000 supporters: "Houston, I think we've achieved liftoff here." Some TV channels immediately switched to the election winner. CNN at least allowed Clinton to keep half the screen -- but even here the two speeches turned into a kind of shouting match, as the jubilation of Obama's supporters threatened to drown out Clinton's speech. After a few minutes, CNN, too, flicked the off switch on Clinton and devoted the whole screen to Obama.

According to US election campaign etiquette, candidates are not supposed to start their speeches while their opponent is still talking. It is a sign of the icy atmosphere between the two camps that Obama did so anyway. It could also have been revenge for Clinton's failure to congratulate Obama (she did, however, make it up later in a telephone call).

But the Obama that filled the screen did not at first trumpet his latest victory. Rather, he began his speech with a technical briefing, informing those present at his speech how they can cast their ballots in Texas. And when he finally got going, the first sentence out of his mouth could easily have come from Clinton: "It is going to take more than big rallies. It's going to require more than rousing speeches." Obama seemed more reserved than he normally is. Of course, he still hit the rhetorical high notes ("We're here because we still believe that change is possible!"), but the passion seemed to be missing on this night.

For a while, Obama even appeared to have made a conscious decision to portray himself as a statesman rather than as a charismatic front-runner. If that were the goal, however, Obama wasn't terribly successful. The senator from Illinois went on and on -- for almost 45 minutes, going deep into the details of education policy and the future of energy policy in the US. But on the night when Obama could very well have begun his victory lap, his talk is rather boring.

But perhaps Obama is simply exhausted from his epic nomination battle against Clinton -- and from a series of mini-crises. Obama had to defend himself against recent accusations that parts of his speeches were stolen from elsewhere. And his wife Michelle also set off a mini-meltdown. On Monday afternoon at an event in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, she said: "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country because it feels like hope is finally making a comeback." She repeated a variation of the sentence later that same day.

Republican campaign strategists are likely rubbing their hands with glee over the flub. Political analyst Mark Halperin even said on Fox News that it could be the kind of thing that will provide Republicans with the motivation they have been missing. Republican commentator Pat Buchanan likewise jumped on the sentence, saying it is the kind of thing that voters respond to.

Noteworthy, though, is that most commentators on Tuesday night spoke as if the Democratic nomination had already been wrapped up. Even as likely Republican nominee John McCain has already shifted his campaign rhetoric to include attacks on Barack Obama, the talking heads too seem to be shifting gears. According to pundits in the US, Clinton would have to trounce Obama in both Texas and Ohio -- which both hold primaries on March 4 -- by double digits to climb back into the race.

McCain, meanwhile, was playing the statesman after he beat out Mike Huckabee in both Wisconsin and Washington on Tuesday. In his victory speech, he spoke about the dangers of nuclear-armed Pakistan, the situation in Afghanistan, and change in Cuba. "USA! USA!" his supporters chanted. "I will fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change," he said in a clear reference to Obama.

Meanwhile, his wife also got into the scrum. In Wisconsin, Cindy McCain offered up her response to Michelle Obama. "I am proud of my country," she said. "I don't know about you, if you heard those words earlier -- I am very proud of my country."