By Cordula Meyer, Gregor Peter Schmitz and Gabor Steingart
The Pennsylvania primary is not just one of many. The sixth most-populous US state, with its mix of black and white, old and young, blue-collar workers and service industry employees, is considered a barometer for the mood throughout the country. Party strategists call Pennsylvania a "no excuse state." In other words, it's too important to lightly dismiss as a loss, because it mirrors the country's sociological center.
If Clinton fails to win Pennsylvania by a wide margin, or even loses, her chances of winning the nomination at the Democratic Convention will be next to nothing.
But Obama's victories so far have not been as impressive as they might seem at first glance. Granted, he has won 27 of the 42 state primaries held to date, but many of those states play only a marginal role in the general election. Idaho and Mississippi, for example, are considered impregnable Republican strongholds in the presidential vote in November.
The parties are focused on a handful of states that have gone Republican or Democratic in the past, the so-called "swing states." Pennsylvania has always been a swing state.
Because of this status, the superdelegates are following the vote in Pennsylvania, geographically located between New York and Washington, with great interest. In their minds, if a candidate cannot win over Democrats in Pennsylvania, how can he or she win over conservatives in the general election? And if a candidate cannot garner the support of blue-collar and low-wage workers, how can he or she expect to capture the votes of the American middle class in November?
A Slight Lead for McCain
Among party leaders, enthusiasm has vanished as quickly as the morning fog dissipates over an Iowa field. Pollsters report a decline in approval ratings for the Democrats and improving ratings for the Republicans. It already seems possible that John McCain, 71, could end up continuing the Bush era. According to a poll released last Friday, McCain enjoys a slight lead over both Obama and Clinton.
In a recent survey conducted by ABC and the Washington Post, more than 40 percent of Democrats now have a negative opinion of the duel between their two contenders. Most blame Clinton, but Obama has also lost some of his luster.
All of this bodes well for McCain, who can only hope that the prolonged fight between his two Democratic rivals will lead to even more disenchantment. While Clinton and Obama are busy insulting each other, McCain has already hit the campaign trail.
He was in good spirits when he addressed a conference of journalists in Washington on Monday of last week, telling them he would keep it brief to leave more time for "your questions, comments or insults." Of course, he also took the opportunity to take a potshot at Obama. The people Obama was disparaging and calling bitter, McCain said, are the "heart and soul of our country." Anyone who hopes to become president in the United States must have the support of the white working class, especially men. They constitute many of the swing voters who could end up deciding the election. They voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2004.
McCain could take the gentlemanly approach. His advisors joke that they could practically use Hillary's campaign against Obama without changing a thing. "The Democrats are destroying themselves," says Republican strategist Alex Castellanos. Nevertheless, McCain's grace period could soon end, especially now that he has committed a series of gaffes that suggest he might not be as qualified as some might have believed.
He is well versed on foreign and security policy. But he has little expertise in economic matters -- the most important issue for many Americans in a time of recession. He even makes light of his ignorance. "Economic issues are something that I haven't understood as well as I should," he said recently. But, he added, he does have a copy of Alan Greenspan's memoirs.
But McCain's aside isn't nearly as funny as he thought, especially now that former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Greenspan, with his policy of easy money, is seen as one of the key players behind the exploding mortgage crisis.
Astonishing Contradictions
McCain could also be accused of inconsistency. He voted twice against the Bush administration's tax cuts because, as he said, they would impose a "burden on the middle class." But after making an about-face on the issue, for reasons unexplained to this day, he now thinks Bush's tax cuts were a good idea -- and he even wants to make them permanent.
In addition, he can be faulted for astonishing contradictions on his favorite terrain, foreign and security policy. The composition of his team of advisors suggests that his views are by no means as consistent as he likes to pretend. He's surrounded by hawks, like former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton and William Kristol, a prophet among Washington's neoconservatives. But his advisors also include doves, like the moderate former Secretary of State Colin Powell and his ex-deputy, Richard Armitage.
The incongruity within the McCain team is reflected in the candidate's positions. If he had his way, McCain would oust Russia from the G-8 club of leading industrialized nations. The neoconservatives welcome this position, as they do his tough rhetoric against the leadership in Tehran and his calls to enlarge the US military. But in a keynote address, McCain described himself as a "realistic idealist," stressing that America must also talk to its enemies. This sounded more like Powell, who would rather negotiate than threaten and shoot.
McCain is having an easy time of it, while the Democrats deal with themselves. But there is almost no political position that the Republican hasn't cleared, modified and, in many cases turned into its polar opposite. A few weeks ago, McCain said that he planned to present a balanced budget within four years. Now he says he could live with eight years.
He recently promised "no welfare for corporations" in his administration. But now he is calling for a reduction in the corporate income tax, which would come at a considerable expense to ordinary taxpayers.
For now, America remains fixated on the duel between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. This gives McCain, a slightly mercurial elderly man, time to practice being president. The advantageous days of a lack of public attention will last a while longer.
But how long? Prominent Democrats fear it could be too long for the party's health. Now there is even a conspiracy theory attributed to Hillary and Bill, and this is how it goes: Hillary loses to Obama, who then loses to McCain. But McCain, because he is relatively old, spends only four years in the White House.
This, the Clintons reason, is how Hillary could have another shot at becoming America's first female president: in 2012.
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