Interview with IAEA Boss Mohamed ElBaradei

'If We Fail, Humanity's Survival Will Be on the Line'

Part 2: 'Al-Qaida Has Shown an Interest in Producing a Bomb'

SPIEGEL: German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says that, based on your latest report, the ball is now in the Iranians' court. He insists that it is time for them to cooperate, otherwise the chances of a diplomatic solution happening in the near future will continue to dwindle. He also mentions the possibility of new sanctions by the UN Security Council.

ElBaradei: I agree wholeheartedly with Mr. Steinmeier.

SPIEGEL: Sanctions are already in effect, and have even been gradually intensified. But this doesn't seem to have impressed the Iranians. They apparently have no intention of abandoning their uranium enrichment program, as the UN has demanded.

ElBaradei: In my talks with Tehran, I have argued that they should suspend uranium enrichment to build trust -- so far unsuccessfully. Iran's leadership knows that the ability to enrich uranium gives it a decisive potential for deterrence, as well as prestige and influence. It's a dodgy situation. Formally Tehran is still within the limits of the permissible. And yet the message Iran's leadership is sending to its neighbors, as well as the rest of the world, is this: We could build the bomb in a relatively short amount of time, if we decided to do so.

SPIEGEL: In other words, it isn't even necessary to have nuclear weapons? All it takes is the credible threat of being able to flick the switch from civilian to military to become something on the order of a virtual nuclear power?

ElBaradei: Yes. But we will not resolve the nuclear issue with military strikes. That would be a ludicrous idea. It would also encourage the entire nation, and even Iranians in exile, to close ranks with their country, as it comes under attack, and its leadership. Besides, a crash program for building the bomb could begin on the day after the attack. Therefore, all that remains are confidence-building measures and a diplomatic solution that uses broad economic and diplomatic incentives. A package that includes security guarantees.

SPIEGEL: That's what Europe is trying to offer. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana had trouble setting up a meeting in the first place. Now he's traveling to Tehran next week. The Iranians seem uninterested, probably because the United States isn't part of the deal.

ElBaradei: There are different directions, different interests in Iran. But there are also Western politicians who aren't exactly eager to bring about a solution, because they fear that it would improve the Tehran government's image, and because they prefer to push for regime change.

SPIEGEL: Does this mean that to achieve progress we'll have to wait for Barack Obama to move into the White House and, as he has indicated, enter into far-reaching talks with Tehran? Or perhaps pin our hopes on Ali Larijani, the former Iranian chief nuclear negotiator who resigned and now, as president of the parliament, has become Ahmadinejad's most important rival, and could even challenge him in the 2009 presidential election?

ElBaradei: Larijani was a tough but realistic negotiator. One could speak plainly and make deals with him. I hope that, in his new position, he will continue to play a moderating role in the nuclear debate. Unfortunately, it will probably be a long time before we have a comprehensive Middle East solution that includes Iran. Open talks that include offers and incentives for the other side are and remain our best opportunity -- as we have seen with North Korea, our other major problematic case.

SPIEGEL: The North Koreans went further than the Iranians. They withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). They tested nuclear weapons, and instead of being penalized for it, they were rewarded with economic gifts.

ElBaradei: I never understood why Washington -- in the context of the six-party talks -- could negotiate with Pyongyang but not with Tehran. North Korea is now dismantling its nuclear program under international supervision.

SPIEGEL: Are you optimistic that North Korea will abide by its promises?

ElBaradei: We are hopeful. We have verified the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear reaction since July 2007, even though we are not involved in the actual dismantling process. One-third of the spent fuel rods have already been removed, while two-thirds are still inside the reactor. There are various opinions over whether North Korea did in fact withdraw from the NPT. The Americans believe that they did, while the Europeans do not. It would be desirable for the situation to be resolved soon and all of North Korea to be placed under our nuclear supervision. But at least things are moving ahead.

SPIEGEL: And then there is the problem of the nuclear black market, and the risk that it will supply terrorists.

ElBaradei: We are very concerned about that. Nuclear and radioactive material is repeatedly being smuggled and offered for sale. The al-Qaida terrorist organization has also shown an interest in producing a bomb.

SPIEGEL: After four years of house arrest in Islamabad, Abdul Qadeer Khan, the father of the Pakistani nuclear weapon and the worst of all nuclear black market players, seems to be moving around freely once again…

ElBaradei: …and yet, to my regret, he still refuses to answer our questions.

SPIEGEL: But at least three presumed members of his network are now likely to go on trial soon: the Swiss engineer Friedrich Tinner and his sons. But the prosecutors lost valuable evidence when the government in Bern had 30,000 potentially damaging documents shredded. Insiders speculate that the CIA "turned around" the Tinners and guaranteed them immunity from prosecution in return for their help in drying up the nuclear swamp. Is it correct that your agency, the IAEA, took part in the shredding incident?

ElBaradei: Yes, at the request of the Swiss government, we observed the destruction of the materials.

SPIEGEL: You, hand-in-hand with the CIA -- now that's a surprise.

ElBaradei: The more you have to do with the underground, the more you discover what a dirty game this is. But I cannot imagine that the Americans used us. We cannot be manipulated.

SPIEGEL: Your agency is being loaded down with more and more international tasks. Is there anything to the rumor that you are also helping the Chinese organizers of the Olympic Games to avert potential nuclear risks, based on a concrete threat?

ElBaradei: All I can say is that we are helping out in Beijing. But it is true that we are being called in to put out many fires. I prefer to be the nuclear watchdog, not the fire department. And I want the necessary tools. We need our own satellite images, and we would need more laboratories to optimally carry out our tasks. But how well we do our jobs depends on the member nations. According to the conclusions reached by an independent expert commission, we would have to double our budget by 2020. I know everyone needs money. But our job is especially important. If we fail, the survival of humanity will be on the line.

SPIEGEL: Mr. ElBaradei, thank you for this interview.

Interview conducted by Georg Mascolo and Erich Follath.